[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude pulls back on Trump's Iran assurances, although supply concerns limit downside

WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are softer after pulling back from yesterday's highs, with the complex pressured by Trump's comments that the US will not attack Iran before the November midterms and that discussions with Tehran remain productive. Nonetheless, the downside remains contained by ongoing supply risks, with the IRGC reiterating restrictions on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while Tasnim reported a massive fire at Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil facility, although this could be a continuation of the smoke also reported in the prior session. Elsewhere, reports suggested US-Iran negotiations have continued through intermediaries, while CENTCOM said primary shipping lanes have been cleared of mines. Elsewhere on the supply front, Gulf of Mexico producers have shut around 63% of oil production ahead of Hurricane Isaias, removing nearly 1.3mln BPD from the market. WTI has fallen from a USD 91.41/bbl high to a USD 90.19/bbl low, while Brent has declined from USD 104.09/bbl to a USD 102.68/bbl trough. Dutch TTF is softer alongside the broader pullback in energy prices, although ongoing Middle Eastern supply concerns and uncertainty surrounding shipping through Hormuz remain overall supportive. TTF resides within a EUR 76.27-78.63/MWh range. Precious metals are firmer, with spot gold benefiting from lower global yields and a softer DXY following strong demand at yesterday's US 30yr Treasury auction, while the pullback in crude prices has also eased some near-term inflation concerns. Nonetheless, expectations of further Fed tightening remain a potential headwind, with Fed Musalem the latest to suggest additional policy firming will be required. Spot gold has climbed from a USD 4,131/oz low to USD 4,208/oz, moving above yesterday's USD 4,103-4,146/oz range, while spot silver has also gained, rising from USD 59.25/oz to USD 60.61/oz. Base metals are overall firmer amid the pullback in energy, with copper attempting to recover from yesterday's losses. The complex has found some support from renewed Chinese demand, low inventories and supply disruption concerns at Antofagasta's Centinela mine in Chile. 3M LME copper resides towards the top of a USD 14,298.53-14,517.80/t range.