Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News - 13th October 2026

US stocks were mixed on Monday, with the Nasdaq underperforming while the Dow advanced and the S&P 500 was little changed. Most sectors finished in the green, led by Energy and Communication Services, while Technology and Consumer Discretionary lagged, weighing on the Nasdaq. Technology stocks were pressured by weakness in chip and memory names, particularly Micron (MU), after China's CXMT announced technological progress on a denser memory chip design, raising concerns over increased competition in the sector. Nonetheless, it was a relatively quiet session amid the Columbus Day federal holiday, although much of the newsflow centred on geopolitical and energy developments over the weekend. Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Putin to lift sanctions on Russian diesel exports in an effort to lower diesel prices for Americans ahead of the midterms. Trump also touted a potential ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, although neither side confirmed a deal, while Russia struck a Ukrainian power plant, raising further doubts over the prospect of an imminent agreement. USD firmed in relatively quiet trade amid the Columbus Day holiday, with the US Treasury cash market closed and liquidity somewhat reduced. Much of the newsflow centred on geopolitical and energy developments over the weekend. Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Putin to lift sanctions on Russian diesel exports in an effort to lower diesel prices for Americans ahead of the midterms. Trump also touted a potential ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, although neither side confirmed a deal, while Russia struck a Ukrainian power plant, raising further doubts over the prospect of an imminent agreement. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East remained elevated after the Houthis struck Riyadh airport and Trump reportedly considered joining the Saudis in striking the Houthis. In the US, Fed's Hammack reiterated her hawkish stance, arguing that further tightening is needed given the slow return of inflation towards target, although she noted that the question for the Fed is now how quickly to make policy more restrictive and expressed a preference for smaller rate adjustments delivered relatively quickly, while the attention this week largely centres on Wednesday's US CPI report, ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's speech at the IMF early Friday morning BST. Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese PPI & Bank Lending, Australian NAB Business Confidence, RBA Minutes, Supply from Australia. SNAPSHOT STOCKS S&P 500 -0.1% Nasdaq Comp. -0.4% DJIA +0.4% Russell 2000 -0.4% ES Dec'26 Flat RTY Dec'26 -0.4% NQ Dec'26 -0.7% YM Dec'26 +0.4% FX DXY +0.3% (102.58) EUR/USD -0.4% USD/JPY +0.2% GBP/USD -0.2% BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -1 tick 10yr Bund Dec'26 +19 ticks US 10yr Yield 5.24% German 10yr Yield 3.48% ENERGY & METALS WTI Nov'26 +1.4% Brent Dec'26 +1.4% Spot Gold -0.5% LME Copper +0.6% CRYPTO Bitcoin -1.1% Ethereum -1.1% As of 21:50BST/16:50EDT LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include Japanese PPI & Bank Lending, Australian NAB Business Confidence, RBA Minutes, Supply from Australia. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump posted an image suggesting that 159 ships have been sunk under his administration. Iran's Acting Defence Minister warned the US against "playing with fire", saying those who initiate a confrontation cannot control its escalation or consequences and that Iran will respond decisively to aggression, according to IRIB. Iranian Foreign Ministry said security will not return to the Strait of Hormuz while the US blockade and economic war against Iran continue, according to Al Jazeera. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said exchanges of messages with the US continue through intermediaries, adding that Tehran is still reviewing US positions and will respond through intermediaries once the review is complete. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said Iran is finalising its response to American comments regarding its plan. Iranian parliament member said the Strait of Hormuz plan had been reviewed by the National Security Commission and will soon be sent to the parliamentary floor. IRGC Navy Commander warned that vessels switching off their navigation systems in the Strait of Hormuz will be treated as adversaries, adding that Iran will not relinquish control over the waterway's security, according to Telegram reports. Iranian Major General Safavi said Tehran's main strategy is the intelligent management of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the US naval blockade, according to Defapress. Iranian Major General Rezaei said the US has accepted some of Iran's seven conditions, but Tehran considers Washington's response insufficient, adding that Iran's diplomacy has changed and will not return to the past, according to IRIB. Iranian General said Iran will not allow the US and Israel's desired regional order to be restored in West Asia, urging regional countries to abandon the US security umbrella and warning that Washington cannot guarantee regional security. Iran's ambassador rejected the UK's claims regarding the Fairford base, according to IRNA. UK Foreign Office issued a joint statement signed by more than 25 countries, including the US, recognising Britain's attribution of Iranian involvement in the RAF Fairford air base incident. UK PM Burnham said the UK is prepared to consider further requests for support from Saudi Arabia, adding that the UK's resolve to defend its allies and itself is resolute and that it will meet its NATO commitments in full. Anti-ship ballistic missiles were launched from Iran's Yazd province towards the port of Fujairah in the UAE. Explosions were reported in Saudi Arabia following a missile and drone attack, according to Sabereen News. Yemen's Houthis said they targeted Riyadh Airport with ballistic missiles on Monday, while it also carried out an operation targeting Khamis Mushait Air Base with a drone, and the strike was direct. Houthi official warned the US of a "swift and painful response" if it enters the war in Yemen, according to Sky News Arabia citing AFP. The official said the group would not deliberate over its response if the US became involved in the conflict, amid reports that Saudi Arabia had requested US assistance against the Houthis. The official also warned employees and workers at Saudi oil facilities and airports to stay away from the sites, describing them as legitimate targets. Yemen government forces thwarted an attempted Houthi infiltration in the Al-Sarari area of rural Taiz, according to Al Araby TV citing sources. US TRADE US stocks were mixed on Monday, with the Nasdaq underperforming while the Dow advanced and the S&P 500 was little changed. Most sectors finished in the green, led by Energy and Communication Services, while Technology and Consumer Discretionary lagged, weighing on the Nasdaq. Technology stocks were pressured by weakness in chip and memory names, particularly Micron (MU), after China's CXMT announced technological progress on a denser memory chip design, raising concerns over increased competition in the sector. Nonetheless, it was a relatively quiet session amid the Columbus Day federal holiday, although much of the newsflow centred on geopolitical and energy developments over the weekend. Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Putin to lift sanctions on Russian diesel exports in an effort to lower diesel prices for Americans ahead of the midterms. Trump also touted a potential ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, although neither side confirmed a deal, while Russia struck a Ukrainian power plant, raising further doubts over the prospect of an imminent agreement. SPX -0.05% at 7,807, NDX -0.71% at 30,665, DJI +0.41% at 51,867, RUT -0.39% at 2,796. Click here for a detailed summary. NOTABLE HEADLINES Fed's Hammack (2026 voter) said further monetary policy tightening is needed, while she prefers smaller, more frequent rate moves and believes inflation is returning to target too slowly. Hammack stated that current policy is not restrictive enough, warned of the risk that high inflation becomes entrenched and noted that firms are passing higher input costs on to customers. Fed's Hammack (2026 voter) said Treasury rates are "modest" by historical standards and the neutral rate is likely higher but difficult to determine precisely, while she added that a return to 3% home mortgage rates would likely indicate that something had gone wrong in the economy. Hammack also said there are early warning signs of a possible problem with inflation expectations and that the economy needs to cool at the margins, as well as commented that higher interest rates may not dissuade hyperscalers but could influence firms in other industries. Furthermore, she said the key question for the Fed is how quickly to make policy more restrictive. FX USD firmed on Monday in relatively quiet trade amid the Columbus Day holiday, with the US Treasury cash market closed and liquidity somewhat reduced. Much of the newsflow centred on geopolitical and energy developments over the weekend. Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Putin to lift sanctions on Russian diesel exports in an effort to lower diesel prices for Americans ahead of the midterms. Trump also touted a potential ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, although neither side confirmed a deal, while Russia struck a Ukrainian power plant, raising further doubts over the prospect of an imminent agreement. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East remained elevated after the Houthis struck Riyadh airport and Trump reportedly considered joining the Saudis in striking the Houthis. In the US, Fed's Hammack reiterated her hawkish stance, arguing that further tightening is needed given the slow return of inflation towards target, although she noted that the question for the Fed is now how quickly to make policy more restrictive and expressed a preference for smaller rate adjustments delivered relatively quickly, while the attention this week largely centres on Wednesday's US CPI report, ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's speech at the IMF early Friday morning BST. EUR was among the underperformers amid dollar strength and as attention remained on French fiscal developments, with Bank of France Governor Moulin noting the economy was holding up despite the energy shock, but with uncertainty at its highest since April, while the Bank of France maintained its Q3 growth estimate at 0.1% and participants await Tuesday's French parliamentary budget debate. Furthermore, ING noted that French fiscal concerns could continue weighing on the Euro into the new year and that the Fed's hawkish inflation stance should support the Dollar. GBP softened but with downside cushioned by support at the 1.3200 level and amid calls from PM Burnham for closer UK-EU ties. JPY gradually softened with USD/JPY gaining a firmer footing at the 158.00 handle, with the Japanese currency subdued amid the holiday in Japan, while participants look ahead to PPI data. FIXED INCOME T-note futures were ultimately flat on the day following indecisive trade and with cash Treasuries trading shut for Columbus Day. COMMODITIES Oil prices saw gains amid renewed Middle East uncertainty and as Ukraine/Russia tensions ramped up, with Russia striking Ukrainian energy strikes despite US President Trump's recent claim of an energy ceasefire. OPEC Secretary General said oil demand growth is expected to reach 400k BPD this year. Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry expects it will take two to three years to increase oil pipeline capacity to 10mln BPD, while the Kingdom is seeking international participation in developing alternative oil pipelines. Saudi Aramco CEO said the company is exploring additional export routes and working to expand overseas storage capacity, according to Asharq. US President Trump said the EU paid Russia USD 250bln for energy, adding that the media did not want to cover the issue and that he had made the right choice for the American people. Russia’s Novak said regarding the diesel supply deal that there are talks between the governments of Russia and the US on supply and that they have the possibility to make additional supplies of diesel on global markets. Qatar set November Marine crude OSP at Oman/Dubai minus USD 8/bbl and Land crude OSP at Oman/Dubai minus USD 7.50/bbl. Kazakhstan has reportedly begun selling gold as US Treasury yields continue to rise. GEOPOLITICAL RUSSIA-UKRAINE Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia attacked Ukraine following US President Trump's announcement, adding that Ukraine would respond during the winter if Russia did not agree to an energy ceasefire. Zelensky said Russia had violated the energy ceasefire announced by Trump and that Ukraine was ready to sign ceasefire guarantees. It was also reported that Zelensky offered to halt Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and hold elections if Russian President Putin agreed to a 60-day ceasefire. Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for an energy truce but is unsure whether Russian President Putin is willing to agree. He said Russia had attacked six Ukrainian energy facilities that day alone and added that it was increasingly evident that Moscow was unwilling to accept the US-proposed energy ceasefire and intended to continue its air attacks against Ukrainian people and communities. Ukraine's Foreign Minister said now is the time for real European pressure on Moscow, calling for frozen assets, trade and transit embargoes, maritime bans, entry bans and other measures rather than half-measures. Kremlin spokesperson said the Kremlin has nothing to announce yet regarding an energy ceasefire, adding that contacts are continuing, according to TASS. Russia wants a long-term peace rather than the 60-day ceasefire proposed by Zelensky. The Kremlin declined to comment on whether a potential energy ceasefire would apply only to oil refineries, adding that contacts on the ceasefire announced by Trump were ongoing and further information would be provided in due course. Kremlin said Russian President Putin is prepared to order a halt to attacks on Ukraine on election day if Kyiv genuinely intends to hold elections, according to RIA. German domestic intelligence chief Selen said Russia is using virtually every tool at its disposal in hybrid operations, including planning assassinations in Germany, adding that further actions of a similar nature are expected. NATO's top commander said the alliance has no plans, intent or ambition beyond protecting people and defending territory, warning that NATO would retaliate if attacked and that any attack on an ally would be rendered completely ineffective. He said he does not believe conflict is imminent or inevitable. NATO would respond to attacks by blockading, degrading and striking adversary forces and, if necessary, neutralising systems targeting its combat systems. The alliance would combine high-end precision-guided munitions with large-scale, low-cost and scalable systems. NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Stringer said the alliance must adopt a tougher defence strategy to restore deterrence against Russia and would "fight to win" if pushed, according to the BBC. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES China will cut the VAT export tax rebate rate on new energy vehicles to 9% from 13%, effective April 1, 2027. DATA RECAP Indian CPI (Sep Y/Y) 5.54% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 4.82%) EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK PM Burnham said the UK-EU summit provides an opportunity to raise concerns about the "Made in Europe" initiative. Burnham also stated that he would work hard to secure an EU-UK deal and that the chances of success would improve if both sides were open to discussing their future relationship, while EU deals are expected to add the equivalent of GBP 10bln annually to UK GDP by 2040. BoE's Mann said the stage is set for a potential wage-price drift. ECB's Moulin said the French economy is holding up in the face of the energy shock, but the uncertainty gauge is at its highest since April, while he maintained his Q3 growth estimate at 0.1%. ECB's Stournaras said the ECB may continue raising interest rates gradually. German Chancellor Merz said the CDU wants to lower the electricity tax for everyone to the minimum level required by European regulations, while he said regarding the US-Russia diesel deal that such an arrangement was out of the question for Germany and that sanctions must be tightened.