[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude benchmarks extend on losses, though remain within Friday's range; Dutch TTF bucks the trend

Crude benchmarks are lower by over 2% this morning, extending on the pullback seen in the Asia-Pac session. WTI Dec'26 currently holds at the bottom end of a USD 100.60-102.63/bbl range, whilst Brent Jan'27 trades at the lower end of a USD 109.22-110.98/bbl band. However, both benchmarks remain comfortably within Friday's broad ranges (WTI: USD 98.84-103.92/bbl; Brent: USD 108.33-112.45/bbl), when crude surged and both benchmarks closed near the top of their ranges. The gradual pressure in the crude complex lacks a clear driver, but markets may be focusing on a meeting in Tehran on Monday between senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan and their Iranian counterparts, to discuss regional coordination. On the diplomatic front, Iran's FM Araghchi proposed a 7-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, subject to conditions, while US President Trump said he is nearing a decision on whether to negotiate a deal with Iran or resume military strikes. The pullback in crude has helped lift broader sentiment across equities this morning. Dutch TTF bucks the trend and is firmer by c. 3%, holding towards the upper end of a EUR 94.25-97.64/MWh range. The contract has climbed steadily throughout the Asia-Pac session and into the European morning, although it has eased slightly from its session peak. There has been no clear headline catalyst for the move, although colder weather forecasts have been cited as supportive, while the European gas benchmark remains underpinned by ongoing LNG disruptions and low EU storage levels heading into the winter period. Elsewhere, Iran's President is set to visit Russia today to attend the gas exporting countries' summit, while Goldman Sachs last week said it still sees upside risks to its year-end TTF forecast of EUR 70/MWh. Across the Atlantic, Henry Hub futures are a touch lower, within a USD 2.932-3.026/MMBtu range. Precious metals are firmer, with spot gold back above the USD 4k/oz mark and holding at the upper end of a USD 3,978-4,022/oz range, after trading sideways just beneath that level overnight, as participants await this week's central bank announcements, including the FOMC on Wednesday. Spot silver trades within a USD 53.62-54.41/oz band. 3M LME Copper is little changed and sits at the top end of a USD 14,247.78-14,361.18/t range. Elsewhere, soybean futures fell to a two-month low following President Lula's re-election in Brazil, which raised expectations of closer Brazil-China trade ties.