Newsquawk US Market Wrap - Tech stocks rebound and yields rise amid stellar US jobs report

Tech stocks rebound and yields rise amid stellar US jobs report SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold down. REAR VIEW: NFP tops expectations, unemployment rate ticks lower; Tech stocks rebound, but MSFT is winding down ORCL deal; TSM mulling expansion into memory chips; Daly said more tightening is needed; Williams stated now is the time to gather information; Musalem remarked inflation is too high; US and Iran move closer to agreement to end war, but Iran wants concrete actions; Trump to make up his mind on Iran soon; Dismal Canadian jobs report. COMING UP: Data: Chinese Inflation (Oct), German Trade Balance (Sep), US NY Fed SCE (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4), Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence (Nov) Events: BoJ SOO (Oct); Eurogroup Meeting; ECOFIN Meeting; COP31 (9-20 Nov) Speakers: Fed’s Goolsbee, Barkin; BoE Governor Bailey Supply: US Earnings: Take Two Interactive, UniCredit. WEEK IN FOCUS: Highlights include US CPI, China inflation, UK GDP, BoJ SOO and NZ elections. Click here for the full report. WEEKLY US EARNINGS ESTIMATES: Earnings quieten down as highlights include AMAT, CRWV, CSCO, NBIS. Click here for the full report. MARKET WRAP Tech stocks rallied on Friday, led by a turnaround in AI-related names following Thursday's sharp sell-off, although the sector still has some way to go to recover recent losses. The rebound was accompanied by a stellar US jobs report, which saw the US economy add 165k jobs in October, well above the 65k forecast, while the prior two months were revised higher by a net 84k. The unemployment rate also declined to 4.14% from 4.2%, despite an uptick in participation, while wage growth exceeded expectations. The report reinforced the resilience of the labour market and gave the Fed greater room to focus on inflation, with money markets now pricing a c. 77% probability of a December hike, up from 64% earlier in the session. Treasury yields rose across the curve, particularly at the front end, resulting in a bear flattening as the strong jobs report and rebound in equities saw some of the recent flight-to-quality demand unwind. Fed commentary also leaned hawkish, with Daly stating that policy needs to be tightened further, although the timing and magnitude remain data-dependent. In FX, the Dollar rallied on the tech rebound and strong jobs report, with the former easing concerns over the growth outlook and the latter supporting expectations for further Fed tightening. Antipodeans and the CAD lagged, while the Yen and Franc fared relatively better against the Dollar. The Loonie was hampered by another weak jobs report. Crude prices eked out modest gains but remained substantially lower on the week amid hopes of a shorter US/Iran war following the Democratic sweep in the midterms. Reports suggested Iran was responding positively to mediation efforts, although Tehran continued to demand concrete action from Washington. Looking ahead, attention turns to Tuesday's US CPI report, which will be crucial for December Fed pricing following Friday's robust labour market data. US DATA JOBS REPORT: The US jobs report was very strong, with headline payrolls jumping to 165k from an upwardly revised 60k, well above the expected 65k. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2% (exp. 4.2%), while the participation rate rose to 61.9% (prev. & exp. 61.8%). Wages were also hotter than expected, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4% M/M (exp. & prev. 0.3%), while the Y/Y rate eased to 3.1% from 3.2%, but remained noticeably above the 2.9% consensus. Looking at the breakdown, private payrolls rose 159k (exp. 64k, prev. 78k), while manufacturing added 19k (exp. 5k, prev. 13k). All in all, the report gives the Fed further room to hike. With policymakers already focused on the inflation side of their mandate, the data reinforce the picture of a resilient labour market, easing immediate concerns about employment weakness. Money markets now price a 77% chance of a 25bps hike in December, up from 64% earlier on Friday. Pantheon Macroeconomics retains its forecast for a 25bps rate hike in December, reflecting the likely near-term increase in inflation as higher energy costs feed through to core goods prices. However, Pantheon sees a prolonged tightening cycle as unnecessary given tighter financial conditions and a potentially growing drag from AI. It expects no further Fed tightening next year, followed by 75bps of easing by the end of 2027. UOM: Headline consumer sentiment rose to 51.0 from 48.0, despite expectations for an unchanged reading. The forward-looking expectations component rose to 50.9 from 48.8, above the 49.5 forecast, while current conditions increased to 51.0 from 46.7, above the expected 48.0. The report noted modest improvements across multiple areas, including expected personal finances and business conditions, concentrated primarily among independents. Meanwhile, sentiment improved among lower- and middle-wealth consumers but fell 5% among those with the largest stock portfolios following a relatively turbulent period in equity markets. Consumer commentary also revealed growing anxiety surrounding a potential AI bubble, although these concerns were overshadowed by cost-of-living pressures, which remain the primary concern. Note that the survey was conducted between October 20th and November 2nd. FED WILLIAMS (voter): New York Fed President Williams said the US economy has been remarkably resilient in the face of recent shocks, with growth strengthening. He acknowledged that inflation has stayed too high for too long, and that energy-driven price pressures are appearing in the areas policymakers would expect. While he described AI-related price pressures as significant, he noted they are narrow in scope. Williams stressed that inflation expectations remain well anchored and that upside in wages is consistent with the target. Overall, he signalled a patient stance, saying it is an appropriate time for the Fed to gather more information before acting further. Note, speaking ahead of the recent October FOMC meeting, Williams said that one further hike this year might be appropriate, but saw no current reason for another in 2027. MUSALEM (2028 voter): Said people remain concerned about inflation at its current level, though he noted that inflation expectations are anchored for now and consistent with 2%. The St. Louis Fed President observed that both consumption and investment are growing rapidly, supported by an optimistic economic outlook. Musalem added that excess inflation today is coming from energy shocks and the AI buildout. DALY (2027 voter): Said inflation has remained too high for too long and must be the Fed’s number one priority, noting that price pressures are proving more stubborn than expected and greater confidence is needed that inflation is returning to target. She stated that further monetary tightening will be necessary, arguing that current policy is only slightly restrictive to neutral and not yet restrictive enough. Daly supported the September rate hike and the subsequent decision to hold, but stressed that the timing and extent of further hikes will depend on incoming data, with a deliberate approach warranted. On the labour market, she welcomed the latest jobs report, noting that wage growth is not booming and real wages are falling, while the strength of employment gives the Fed room to tackle inflation without significant concerns over growth. She added that businesses remain cautiously optimistic, while the recent AI-related market repricing has been orderly and could represent a healthy rebalancing, although it may signal some moderation in demand and could potentially slow growth. FIXED INCOME T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLED 7 TICKS LOWER AT 107-03+ Yields rise as tech stocks rebound and US sees stellar jobs report. At settlement, 2-year +5.1bps at 4.522%, 3-year +4.5bps at 4.586%, 5-year +3.5bps at 4.648%, 7-year +3.0bps at 4.742%, 10-year +1.6bps at 4.859%, 20-year +0.8bps at 5.290%, 30-year +0.1bps at 5.260%. THE DAY: The yield curve flattened on Friday, with front-end yields rising while the long end was little changed. There were two primary drivers of price action: the stellar US jobs report and the rebound in US tech/AI stocks. The recent stock/AI rout had prompted an FTQ bid in T-notes, pushing yields lower as participants sought safety in haven assets amid equity market volatility. However, as stocks rebounded on Friday, albeit with some way still to go to recover recent losses, some of that haven demand was unwound. T-notes did find some support after Bloomberg reported that Microsoft (MSFT) is winding down an arrangement to rent AI computing capacity from Oracle (ORCL), as part of a broader reassessment of billions of dollars in cloud partnerships. Meanwhile, the US jobs report was strong. The US economy added 165k jobs in October, well above the 65k forecast and the upwardly revised 60k prior, while the previous two months were revised higher by a net 84k, helping offset some of the weakness seen in recent labour market reports. The unemployment rate also improved, dropping to 4.1% from 4.2%, while the participation rate ticked higher. The NFP report and rebound in stocks saw hawkish Fed bets return, with participants now pricing a c. 77% probability of a December hike, up from 64% earlier in the session, albeit still below the near 90% seen before the recent equity weakness. Fed speak saw Williams highlight the resilient economy and inflation remaining too high for too long, while stating that it is an appropriate time to gather more information. Musalem noted that people remain concerned about inflation, while Daly described the jobs report as good news. Daly stated that policy will need to be tightened further, although more information is required on how much additional tightening is needed and when. She is prepared to raise rates if warranted and noted that rates are likely somewhere between slightly restrictive and neutral. She added that policy is not as restrictive as it needs to be. Daly's comments prompted some additional upside in 2-year yields, albeit only around 2-3bps. Looking ahead, Tuesday's CPI report will be key in shaping Fed expectations, given policymakers' heightened focus on the inflation side of their mandate. Friday's robust jobs report gives the Fed greater room to prioritise returning inflation to target, with immediate concerns surrounding labour market weakness easing. Supply Notes/Bonds US to sell USD 58bln of 3-year notes on November 9th, USD 42bln of 10-year notes on November 10th and USD 25bln of 30-year bonds on November 12th. Bills US to sell USD 100bln of 6-wk bills, USD 95bln of 13-wk bills and USD 82bln of 26-wk bills on November 9th; all to settle on November 12th STIRS / OPERATIONS Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Dec 19.2bps (prev. 16.9bps), Mar 33.9bps (prev. 29.1bps). EFFR at 3.88% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 111bln (prev. USD 115bln) on November 5th SOFR at 3.92% (prev. 3.94%), volumes at USD 3.256tln (prev. USD 3.207tln) on November 5th * NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.15bln (prev. 0.12bln) across 1 counterparty (prev. 1) on November 6th CRUDE WTI (Z6) SETTLED USD 0.31 HIGHER AT 90.83/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLED USD 0.03 HIGHER AT 98.32/BBL The crude complex was choppy and eked out mild gains on Friday, but still posted notable weekly losses amid more positive US/Iran deal chatter and in the wake of the Democratic sweep. With markets closed over the weekend, attention turns to any escalatory or de-escalatory developments. On Friday, benchmarks pared some of Thursday's rebound during the European morning as markets digested a call between Qatar's Emir and US President Trump regarding de-escalation. Prices then reversed higher on reports that Iranian official Bagheri said Iran would no longer accept US commitments on paper alone and must see concrete actions before entering a new round of diplomacy. Pressure returned after Al Arabiya, citing sources, reported that Iran is responding positively to the latest proposal presented by mediators, adding that Tehran is awaiting practical steps from Washington to build trust. More recently, Kan News reported that the Israeli political leadership has not directed the IDF to attack Iran, although such a directive remains a possibility, with some reportedly viewing it as the most likely option. Meanwhile, US President Trump said overnight that the world would know very soon whether he decides to make a deal with Iran to end the war or order further strikes. Elsewhere, reports suggested that oil traders including Vitol and Mercuria are in talks with the US about using sanctioned tankers in a move aimed at easing freight rates and oil prices. In the weekly Baker Hughes rig count, oil rigs rose by 1 to 463 and natural gas rigs rose by 1 to 131, while the total rig count increased by 1 to 604. EQUITIES CLOSES: SPX +0.33% at 7,378, NDX +1.35% at 26,990, DJI -0.46% at 51,286, RUT +0.85% at 2,753. SECTORS: Technology +1.26%, Communication Services +0.51%, Industrials +0.13%, Consumer Discretionary +0.07%, Energy -0.07%, Health -0.10%, Utilities -0.42%, Materials -0.59%, Real Estate -0.64%, Financials -0.67%, Consumer Staples -1.21%. EUROPEAN CLOSES: DAX -2.02% at 25,794, FTSE 100 -1.01% at 10,674, CAC 40 -0.81% at 8,139, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.12% at 6,162, AEX -0.77% at 1,121, IBEX 35 -0.60% at 19,370, FTSE MIB -0.90% at 50,053, SMI -1.14% at 14,797. STOCK SPECIFICS: Cloudflare (NET): EPS & rev. beat w/ strong next Q & FY outlook Akamai Technologies (AKAM): Profit surpassed Wall St. exp. Lam Research (LRCX): Announces $25bln share repurchase authorisation & declares Q div. Unity Software (U): Silver Lake & Saudi Arabia’s PIF have held talks to acquire the Co., discussing a valuation of c. $25bln Airbnb (ABNB): EPS & rev. topped as did next Q top line view DraftKings (DKNG): Deeper loss per shr. & rev. light w/ FY top line midpoint short of exp. Kura Sushi USA (KRUS): Disappointing results & outlook Under Armour (UAA): Rev. short & cut GM view IREN (IREN): Top line beat, rapid AI Cloud growth & expanding contracted rev. backlog Lyft (LYFT): Surprise loss per shr. & rev. light Firefly Aerospace (FLY): Signs rocket engine deal valued at >$1.3bln w/ AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Vistra (VST): Adj. EBITDA, rev. topped & increased share buyback by $1.5bln Hims & Hers Health (HIMS): Co. & Eli Lilly (LLY) announce agreement to help expand access to Zepbound & Foundayo Qualcomm (QCOM): Alphabet discloses $548mln worth of Co. stake. TSMC (TSM) is considering expanding into advanced memory chip manufacturing, according to sources cited by The Information. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar told CNBC OpenAI is raising at a USD 1.25tln valuation and OpenAI will keep investing in AI data centres despite election results. Microsoft (MSFT) is reportedly winding down Oracle (ORCL) deal to rent AI cloud capacity, according to Bloomberg. FX The Dollar Index saw strong gains on Friday, adding to Thursday’s haven-driven buying, as a tech rebound helped quell some growth fears and the US jobs report was stellar. The headline jumped to 165k from an upwardly revised 60k, well above the 65k consensus. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, while the participation rate ticked up to 61.9% from 61.8%. The prelim. UoM survey for November also impressed and, encouragingly, both short- and longer-term inflation expectations fell. Speaking before NFP, the Fed’s influential Williams said it is an appropriate time to gather more information and that inflation is well anchored. Heading into the weekend, focus will be on any developments in the Middle East. Next week, inflation reports will be closely watched given their importance for the Fed. G10 FX was lower across the board on the broad Dollar rally. The Antipodeans saw the largest losses, while the Yen and Swissy were the relative outperformers, albeit still under notable pressure. For the Yen, BoJ Governor Ueda spoke at length, noting that CPI is now around 3% and expected to rise further into early next year, and that underlying inflation will likely stay around 2%, while recognising some upside risks. He added that the BoJ looks at the actions of other central banks “very, very carefully”, as they affect asset prices, including exchange rates and interest rates. Currency-specific newsflow was light overall, aside from CAD, but there was further central bank rhetoric out of Europe. ECB’s Lane said inflation needs to be back to target in a year or two, and that fiscal policy has been more expansionary than expected this year but is expected to be less so in coming years. Referencing December, he said now is the time to gather information. On the data front, German IP beat expectations, while EZ retail sales disappointed. In the UK, BoE’s Pill said the Bank was short of specific evidence of second-round effects, but that a decision to raise rates pre-emptively is in character, adding that there were different views and nuances around the decision. The Loonie was hit by a dismal jobs report, which showed a third consecutive monthly decline in employment. The Canadian economy lost 4.7k jobs in October (exp. +13.6k), with the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 6.7% (exp. & prev. 6.5%).