Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News - 1st October 2026

US stocks were mixed amid a slew of data releases and with notable Nasdaq outperformance, while the SPX saw mild gains, RUT was flat and DJI lower, with the equal-weight S&P also declining. The majority of sectors were lower, led by Consumer Staples, Health Care and Real Estate. Meanwhile, Technology and Communication Services rallied, supporting the broader indices given their weightings, largely led by gains in Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL). Attention turns to Micron (MU) earnings after-hours, with some choppy trade seen in late trade on account of month and quarter end. The macro highlight was US PCE, which was broadly softer than expected, although somewhat clouded by BEA methodology changes, with many expecting a downside surprise. The initial reaction was dovish but ultimately faded. Q2 GDP was also stronger than expected, while the Goods Trade Balance deficit widened in August, led by further capital goods imports amid strong AI-related demand, and ADP private payrolls topped expectations. USD was more-or-less unchanged on the day, despite seeing a bout of pressure following the cooler-than-expected US PCE report, although the signal was somewhat clouded by the BEA methodology changes. Following the dovish remarks from Fed's Williams on Tuesday and the soft PCE report, money markets now see around a 40% chance of a 25bps hike in October, versus roughly 70% prior to his remarks. Elsewhere, ADP private payrolls rose above expectations, while the advanced goods trade deficit was wider than expected and deteriorated M/M. Looking ahead, highlights include Australian Manufacturing PMI & Trade Data, BoJ Tankan Survey, South Korean Trade Data, Regional PMIs, BoJ Summary of Opinions from the September Meeting, RBA Financial Stability Review, Holiday Closure in Mainland China & Hong Kong. SNAPSHOT STOCKS S&P 500 -0.2% Nasdaq Comp. +0.2% DJIA -0.9% Russell 2000 -0.4% ES Dec'26 -0.1% RTY Dec'26 -0.4% NQ Dec'26 +0.4% YM Dec'26 -0.8% FX DXY +0.1% (101.45) EUR/USD -0.1% USD/JPY +0.1% GBP/USD +0.3% BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -6 ticks 10yr Bund Dec'26 +29 ticks US 10yr Yield 5.29% German 10yr Yield 3.58% ENERGY & METALS WTI Nov'26 +1.1% Brent Dec'26 +1.8% Spot Gold -0.5% LME Copper -0.2% CRYPTO Bitcoin +0.1% Ethereum +0.3% As of 21:50BST/16:50EDT LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include Australian Manufacturing PMI & Trade Data, BoJ Tankan Survey, South Korean Trade Data, Regional PMIs, BoJ Summary of Opinions from the September Meeting, RBA Financial Stability Review, Holiday Closure in Mainland China & Hong Kong. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump said we will see things happening very soon regarding Iran, while he added there have been historic flows of oil out of Hormuz in the last three days and that the US has almost total control of the Strait of Hormuz. US White House is reportedly tempering expectations of an imminent breakthrough between US and Iran, with a source suggesting that the bar is being raised very high, according to Semafor. White House Deputy Assistant to the President said a deal between the US and Iran remains possible, and the Trump admin believes it can resolve the confrontation imminently, according to The Jerusalem Post. Iran's President said Tehran is earnestly fulfilling its responsibility to safeguard regional waterways and ensure safe navigation, while he added that sustainable security in territorial waters and waterways depends on cooperation and shared responsibility among the countries of the region. Iranian government spokesperson said Foreign Minister Araghchi presented President Pezeshkian with a US proposal following his New York trip, which included discussions on Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to IRNA. Iranian Civil Defence said it has raised readiness levels at 46 facilities in anticipation of attacks on infrastructure, including oil refineries, power plants, ports, bridges and airports, according to Al Arabiya. IRGC spokesperson said military confrontations take place in the Strait of Hormuz every 24 hours, but the US has not responded for some time, according to Al Mayadeen. IRGC said there is no disagreement between the diplomatic corps and the armed forces in the country, with coordination ongoing between the two sides. UKMTO said an LNG tanker was struck by an unknown projectile on September 29th within the Strait of Hormuz. UK PM Burnham said there are strong indications that Iran played a part in what happened over the weekend at the Fairford Air Base incident. Air Raid sirens were reportedly activated in the Azraq area of Jordan, according to SNN. Pakistan Defence Minister refused to comment on any possible participation of Pakistan's forces in Saudi attacks on Yemen, but said Pakistan will use every possible means to defend Saudi Arabia against foreign attacks. Yemeni armed forces reportedly attacked the Abqaiq oil city in eastern Saudi Arabia this afternoon, according to IRNA citing "some news sources". US TRADE US stocks were mixed amid a slew of data releases and with notable Nasdaq outperformance, while the SPX saw mild gains, RUT was flat and DJI lower, with the equal-weight S&P also declining. The majority of sectors were lower, led by Consumer Staples, Health Care and Real Estate. Meanwhile, Technology and Communication Services rallied, supporting the broader indices given their weightings, largely led by gains in Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL). Attention turns to Micron (MU) earnings after-hours, with some choppy trade seen in late trade on account of month and quarter end. The macro highlight was US PCE, which was broadly softer than expected, although somewhat clouded by BEA methodology changes, with many expecting a downside surprise. The initial reaction was dovish but ultimately faded. Q2 GDP was also stronger than expected, while the Goods Trade Balance deficit widened in August, led by further capital goods imports amid strong AI-related demand, and ADP private payrolls topped expectations. SPX -0.20% at 7,656, NDX +0.23% at 30,409, DJI -0.86% at 50,909, RUT -0.38% at 2,797. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE US President Trump announced a deal for nuclear power plants to be funded by South Korea, while he stated it is part of South Korea's investment pledge that got auto tariffs reduced from 25% to 15%. USTR Greer said 10 more trade deals are on the way, while he stated he is in frequent contact with his Canadian counterpart and that if Canada wants a deal, the US door is always open. China's MOFCOM said China and Canada held a meeting on the economy and trade. Indian PM Modi said he had a productive conversation with US President Trump. They reviewed bilateral cooperation in trade, defence, energy, critical technologies and other areas, and agreed to maintain close engagement to take the Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership forward. They also exchanged views on regional and international issues, including ongoing efforts to advance global peace and security. NOTABLE HEADLINES Fed's Cook (voter) said inflation has been too high for too long and she is committed to returning it to 2% while preserving labour market strength. US Federal Reserve finalised changes to enhance the transparency and public accountability of its stress test and reduce volatility in its stress test-related capital requirements. The changes require the Board to invite public input annually on the stress test scenarios and any material model changes. They are likely to reduce Y/Y volatility in capital requirements by approximately 50% and are not expected to materially affect aggregate capital requirements. DATA RECAP US PCE Price Index (Aug YY) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.4%) US Core PCE Index (Aug YY) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.0%) US Personal Income (Aug MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%) US Personal Spending (Aug MM) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.1%) US GDP Growth Rate Final (Q2 QQ) 2.2% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 2.1%) US GDP Price Index Final (Q2 QQ) 6.1% vs. Exp. 6.4% (Prev. 3.6%) US ADP Employment Change (Sep) 90K vs. Exp. 70K (Prev. 38K) US Chicago PMI (Sep) 58.8 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 47.1) FX USD was more-or-less unchanged on the day, despite seeing a bout of pressure following the cooler-than-expected US PCE report, although the signal was somewhat clouded by the BEA methodology changes. Following the dovish remarks from Fed's Williams on Tuesday and the soft PCE report, money markets now see around a 40% chance of a 25bps hike in October, versus roughly 70% prior to his remarks. Elsewhere, ADP private payrolls rose above expectations, while the advanced goods trade deficit was wider than expected and deteriorated M/M. EUR saw two-way price action and ultimately faded the early support seen following firmer-than-expected inflation data from some of the bloc's key economies. GBP outperformed after UK GDP data for Q2 was revised higher and with UK PM Burnham continuing to suggest that a move to rejoin the EU is among the options for the UK. JPY was choppy with USD/JPY trading both sides of the 157.00 level although the pair ultimately recovered alongside the greenback. FIXED INCOME T-notes settled lower as Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the long-end leading the move to see the curve bear steepen. There was plenty of data to digest, with yields initially rising after ADP private payrolls increased 90k in September, above the prior 38k and 70k forecast, pointing to solid private-sector hiring. The move swiftly pared, however, with participants cognisant of the historically weak relationship between ADP and Friday's official NFP report. Shortly after, August PCE and final Q2 GDP data were released. PCE was soft, with prior figures revised lower, although much of the softness reflected well-documented BEA methodology changes affecting software and accessories, portfolio management, and legal services. COMMODITIES Oil prices recovering earlier losses, amid seemingly little progress on US-Iran talks while the Abqaiq oil city in Saudi Arabia was attacked by the Houthis. US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Sep/25) 0.922M vs. Exp. 0.5M (Prev. 2.969M) OPEC+ producers are reportedly set to keep output targets unchanged at Sunday's meeting. Iraq's SOMO offered buyers October contract crude supplies at discounts to regional benchmarks of up to USD 37/bbl, according to reports citing documents. Syria said three power plants are out of service following a gas pipeline explosion. Chile’s August copper production fell to 369.5k tonnes (prev. 403.4k tonnes). Escondida union was said to reject contract offer paving the way for a strike. GEOPOLITICAL MIDDLE EAST US President Trump announced on Truth Social that the last American forces are leaving Iraq. RUSSIA-UKRAINE Kremlin dismissed reports of a possible discussion of lifting sanctions against Russia in exchange for prisoners. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said European weapons factories producing arms for Ukraine are legitimate military targets for Russia. OTHER NATO Sec Gen Rutte said there is no imminent threat to NATO territory, adding that the US will stay involved in conventional defence of Europe, as well as nuclear. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES Japanese PM Takaichi said the administration will boost supply-side growth, while the government will clarify the direction of economic and fiscal policy management. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she has been in close communication with the BoJ at all levels and sees no big difference in views on the economy and prices. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK PM Burnham said they are looking at all things, including fuel duty ahead of the budget, adding that it is hard to return to past growth without closer EU ties. UK PM Burnham suggested that a move to rejoin the EU is among the options for the UK, while saying the current settlement has caused more harm than good, according to BBC Radio 4. EU is open to providing single-market access to those looking to join the bloc, on the condition they stand with the EU against industrial competition and hostile nations, according to Politico sources. French President Macron said the UK would be welcomed back if it wants to rejoin the EU. French Interior Ministry source said France is discussing with the UK the terms for withdrawing from the “one in, one out” agreement. German government plans to introduce a sugar tax on July 1, 2027, while it expects it to generate an additional EUR 945mln for the federal budget next year, according to Welt citing a draft. ECB President Lagarde said France's debt situation is serious at 120% of GDP, and without a path to lowering it, according to La Croix Newspaper. The European financial system is more solid now than during the 2008 and 2011 crises. France needs a credible budget trajectory and reforms to restore confidence. If she leaves the ECB early, it will only be by a few months. ECB's Schnabel said high costs are passed through to consumers more quickly when the economy is resilient. Robust credit dynamics suggest financial conditions are not yet restrictive. It is possible the economy responds more to the recent global yield rise than assumed, which would dampen price pressures. Inflation can return to target more gradually when expectations are anchored. DATA RECAP UK GDP Growth Rate Final (Q2 QQ) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%) UK GDP Growth Rate Final (Q2 YY) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 0.9%) German Retail Sales (Aug YY) -0.4% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -2.5%) German Unemployment Rate (Sep) 6.4% vs. Exp. 6.4% (Prev. 6.4%) German CPI Prel (Sep YY) 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 2.9%) French CPI Prel (Sep YY) 3.0% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.4%) French HICP Preliminary (Sep YY) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 2.6%) Italian CPI Prel (Sep YY) 4.2% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.3%) Italian HICP Preliminary (Sep YY) 4.1% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.2%)