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BoJ Governor Ueda says been watching weak JPY and Middle East in terms of inflation; Stabilization of 2% inflation is increasingly important; Will continue to adjust accommodation

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Ueda said inflation was close to 2%, making the target more important, while future rate decisions would consider FX, AI demand and Middle East developments; he also discussed assessing Japan’s neutral rate.

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No big gap in view between what we have assessed on inflationary pressure from AI demand, and what I heard from global policymakers. We will continue to raise interest rates as underlying inflation approaching 2%, financial conditions are accommodative. I felt that there were more policymakers at this meeting who were somewhat more bullish on AI demand than we had estimated. Economic and price moves roughly in line with our forecasts. We will discuss at upcoming meeting whether to tweak our assessment that underlying inflation is approaching 2%. Did not hear anything at this week’s meetings that deviated from our baseline view. Timing, pace of future rate hikes will be decided looking at impact of FX, AI demand and Middle East developments on prices. Haven’t been in touch with US Treasury Secretary Bessent since Asheville meeting. As underlying inflation is quite close to 2%, it is becoming more important than before to anchor inflation around our target. As we have said, our policy has entered a new phase as underlying inflation is quite close to 2%, we cannot allow inflation to rise further. Takeaway from this week’s meetings was to exchange views with other policymakers on how Middle East conflict and AI demand could affect global, Japanese economies and inflation. Had chance to exchange views with Fed Chair Warsh but won’t comment on what was discussed. Hard to say anything clear about Japan’s neutral rate of interest. Want to gauge neutral rate estimate taking into account accumulative impact of past rate hikes on financial conditions, domestic prices.

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