Newsquawk US Market Wrap - Stocks gain as AI fears fade while strong data supports the buck

SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries flatten, Crude down, Dollar up, Gold up REAR VIEW: US Durable Goods top forecasts; US Consumer Confidence unexpectedly improves; US New Home Sales decline less than expected; Iran's Supreme Leader calls for proposals outlining acceptable conditions to end the war; Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery hit by Houthis; AMD and META collaborate to power META's AI; AVGO upgraded; Solid US 5yr auction COMING UP: Data: Australian CPI (Sep), German GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov), US Atlanta Fed GDPNow. Events: Fed Policy Announcement (Oct), BoC Policy Announcement (Oct), RBNZ Policy Announcement (Oct), UK Autumn Budget. Speakers: RBA’s Hauser, Bullock, Hunter, Jones, Kent; RBNZ Governor Breman; BoC’s Macklem; Fed Chair Warsh. Supply: Germany, US. Earnings: GE Vernova, Phillips 66, Microsoft, Alphabet, ServiceNow, FedEx, T-Mobile, Ford, UBS, Airbus, Unilever, GSK. MARKET WRAP Stocks were bid on Tuesday, with gains led by the Nasdaq as AI names recovered somewhat from recent pressures. Consumer Discretionary, Tech and Communication outperformed thanks to gains in heavyweight stocks, while Energy, Real Estate and Consumer Staples lagged. The tech recovery was partly supported by Anthropic's S-1 release on Monday and the Meta financing deal announcement, which continued to help ease some of the AI concerns during Tuesday's trade. The Treasury curve saw some mild flattening, with front-end yields rising while the long end was flat ahead of Wednesday's FOMC rate decision. Yields briefly moved higher following strong US economic data, including housing, durable goods and consumer confidence reports. In FX, the antipodes were the clear G10 outperformers against the buck, while the Euro and CAD lagged. CAD was softer on weaker oil prices, while the Euro continued to slide, trading at 1.1138, just above the October 14th low of 1.1117, with these lows last seen in April 2025. Energy prices were ultimately lower in choppy trade. Prices initially peaked after Iranian state media IRIB reported that Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery (550k BPD) was targeted by missiles. However, pressure was later observed after Iran's Supreme Leader called for proposals outlining acceptable conditions to end the war. Attention now turns to Wednesday's FOMC decision and Thursday's PCE report, alongside a busy earnings calendar this week featuring GOOGL, MSFT, INTC and AMZN. US DURABLE GOODS: Headline Durable goods rose 1.8% in September, up from the 0.1% in August and above the 1.5% forecast. The ex-defence metrics accelerated to 2.2% from 0.3%, while ex-transport rose to 0.5% from 0.3%, but missed the 0.6% forecast. Non-defence capital goods orders excluding air rose 0.5%, slowing from 1.6% and below the 0.7% forecast. Summarising the data, Oxford Economics writes that "durable goods orders were strong, with core orders tied to the AI buildout and a global defence buildup showing no sign of a slowdown". The desk notes that core orders are forward-looking and reinforce their base case for a still-strong pace of equipment investment heading into Q4 and 2027. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: US consumer confidence unexpectedly rose to 91.7 in October (exp. 81.2, prev. 84.2), with the Present Situation Index up 8.6 points to 120.4 and the Expectations Index rising 6.9 points to 72.6, although the latter remained notably depressed after three consecutive monthly declines. Consumers reported improved views of business conditions and job availability, while expectations for business conditions, employment and income also improved. Fergus McCormick, Senior Economist at The Conference Board notes the recovery of the headline was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October. He added that consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months, likely reflecting "higher price levels and persistent inflation, which eroded consumers’ purchasing power.” 12-month inflation expectations eased but stayed elevated at 5.8%, consumers still expect higher rates, and more see stocks rising then falling over the next year. NEW HOME SALES: US new home sales in September fell 0.6% to 676k from the revised lower 680k, albeit above the expected 650k. New houses for sale were 476k, falling 1% from August's estimate of 481k, and this represents a supply of 8.4 months at the current sales rate (prev. 8.5 months' worth in Aug). The median sales price of new houses sold in September was USD 400,400, +3.9% M/M. New home sales have been more resilient than anticipated despite the rise in mortgage rates, but housing market data overall continues to flag ongoing weakness. Oxford Economics notes that higher mortgage rates exacerbate an already unaffordable market for many buyers, which will continue to push the composition of home sales toward lower-priced units and weigh on home price appreciation. RICHMOND FED: Richmond Fed composite held at -2 in October, against the expected rise to 0. Two of its three component indices fell, with new orders and employment printing -8 (prev. -6) and 3 (prev. 7), respectively, while shipments lifted to 0 from -5. Looking ahead, the future indices for new orders and shipments tumbled to 22 (prev. 32) and 19 (prev. 33), respectively, but remained firmly positive, while employment held steady at 8. Local business conditions deepened further into negative territory, and expectations dipped to 7 from 10. Prices paid and received both jumped in October, with the latter soaring to 5.27% from 4.19%. Expectations for both inflationary metrics rose, with paid lifting to 5.32% from 4.73%, and received rising to 4.30% from 3.84%. FED PREVIEW: The Fed is widely expected to hold rates in October following commentary from influential Fed officials signalling that policymakers have room to pause, with money markets and analysts largely anticipating a December rate hike. Expectations for an October hold have persisted despite hotter-than-expected September inflation data. Meanwhile, the September jobs report was soft, although broader growth remains resilient. There remains potential for dissent from regional voting members, with Rabobank expecting Hammack, Kashkari and Logan to repeat their July dissents in favour of a hike, despite recent commentary from Hammack and Kashkari suggesting flexibility over the pace of tightening. Meanwhile, Warsh's lack of pushback against signals from key Fed officials favouring an October pause has reinforced market expectations for a hold. At the press conference, Warsh is likely to maintain his preference against providing explicit forward guidance. For the full Newsquawk preview, please see the headline feed or the Research Suite. FIXED INCOME T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLED 2 TICKS LOWER AT 106-01+ Curve flattens after strong US economic data, fresh corporate issuance as eyes turn to FOMC. At settlement, 2-year +1.7bps at 4.737%, 3-year +1.7bps at 4.797%, 5-year +1.3bps at 4.839%, 7-year +0.8bps at 4.908%, 10-year +0.3bps at 4.991%, 20-year -0.2bps at 5.351%, 30-year -0.2bps at 5.303%. THE DAY: Treasury yields were mixed but little changed overall on Tuesday, with attention turning to Wednesday's FOMC rate decision, where markets and analysts expect rates to be left on hold, with a hike largely expected in December. The yield curve saw a mild flattening, with front-end yields up around 2bps while the long end was little changed. Yields briefly moved higher following stronger-than-expected durable goods data. Housing data was also strong, while consumer confidence notably exceeded expectations. Aside from the data, corporate issuance was in focus again. Around seven companies were considering fresh issuance in the US investment-grade bond market on Tuesday, according to a Bloomberg survey, after 19 hit the market on Monday, selling over USD 17bln in new debt. The 5-year auction was solid, posting a narrower tail, improved bid-to-cover, lower Dealer takedown, broadly unchanged Direct demand and an improvement in Indirect demand, albeit the latter remained below recent averages. Supply US sold USD 70bln of 5-year notes; tailed by 0.4bps US to sell USD 44bln of 7-year notes on Thursday 29th October. US sold 6-wk bills at a high rate of 3.950%, B/C 2.83x; sold 1-yr bills at a high rate of 4.290%, B/C 3.15x US to sell USD 75bln in 17-week bills on October 28, USD 115bln in 4-week bills and USD 110bln in 8-week bills on October 29, with all three auctions settling on November 3rd STIRS/OPERATIONS Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Oct 2.4bps (prev. 2.8bps), Dec 22.6bps (prev. 22.6bps) EFFR at 3.88% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 109bln (prev. USD 109bln) on October 26th SOFR at 3.93% (prev. 3.92%), volumes at USD 3.086tln (prev. USD 3.065tln) on October 26th NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.23bln (prev. 0.20bln) across 2 counterparties (prev. 1) on October 27th Treasury Buyback [Liquidity Support, 20-30 year, max USD 6bln]: Accepts USD 6bln of 10.75bln offers, accepts 6 of 35 eligible issues. CRUDE WTI (Z6) SETTLED USD 1.86 LOWER AT 99.90/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLED USD 1.33 LOWER AT 109.41/BBL The crude complex was lower, albeit in choppy trade on Tuesday, as participants await the next major de- or re-escalatory move. WTI and Brent were initially pressured in the European morning, but swiftly reversed and rose to session highs of USD 102.82/bbl and USD 111.91/bbl, respectively, after IRIB reported that Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery (550k BPD) had been targeted by missiles with large plumes of smoke seen. Later reports suggested Saudi Arabia had contained a fire at the site, although there has been no independent confirmation. Benchmarks hovered at highs before a knee-jerk drop when Iran’s Supreme Leader called for proposals outlining acceptable conditions to end the war. Energy then continued to trend lower through the US afternoon to settle just off lows. On the US/Iran footing, Iranian President met Russian President in Moscow. Pezeshkian said there is no point in hoping for the US to resolve problems in the Middle East. Putin said he expects the situation to develop positively and that Russia is fulfilling all its obligations on projects in Iran, adding that construction at the Bushehr nuclear power plant continues. Elsewhere, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said the Ukraine conflict is likely to continue and escalate. On the supply footing, Trump said he will visit Corpus Christi, Texas, and that "the US will receive 1mln bbls of Venezuelan oil, and is just the first shipment of billions of bbls to come". Ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, source reports said that the group is expected to maintain December oil production targets. Ahead, weekly private inventory data after-hours awaits. EQUITIES CLOSES: SPX +0.60% at 7,723, NDX +1.29% at 29,651, DJI +0.03% at 52,378, RUT +1.16% at 2,819. SECTORS: Technology +1.49%, Consumer Discretionary +1.36%, Materials +0.78%, Utilities +0.70%, Industrials +0.58%, Communication Services +0.15%, Health -0.04%, Financials -0.27%, Consumer Staples -0.90%, Real Estate -0.91%, Energy -2.20%. EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.79% at 6,165, DAX +0.77% at 25,607, CAC 40 +0.51% at 7,887, FTSE 100 -0.75% at 10,687, SMI +0.40% at 14,598, FTSE MIB +0.90% at 49,628, IBEX 35 +0.67% at 19,161, PSI +0.85% at 9,254, AEX +0.59% at 1,140. STOCK SPECIFICS: Nvidia (NVDA) said it plans to invest USD 3bln in Meta Platforms' (META) equity offering. Broadcom (AVGO) was upgraded at DA Davidson. Moderna (MRNA) was downgraded at William Blair. AMD (AMD) and Meta (META) collaborate across CPUs, GPUs, networking, systems and software to power Meta services and AI infrastructure; AMD will invest USD 1bln in Meta's equity offering. US FTC has told Cintas (CTAS) and UniFirst (UNF) that they will block the USD 5bln merger, Semafor reports. Constellation Energy (CEG) has been offered USD 5bln in financing by the US government for nuclear reactors. Oracle (ORCL) to make Cerebras' (CBRS) Fast Intelligence available on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure; will be available in CY2027. EARNINGS: Cadence Design Systems (CDNS): Q3 numbers beat & raised FY26 outlook. Corning (GLW): Solid report; headline numbers topped as did next Q guidance. SoFi Technologies (SOFI): Q nos. & FY26 guidance impressed. PayPal (PYPL): Top line missed. S&P Global (SPGI): EPS & rev. topped alongside lifting FY view. Whirlpool (WHR): Dismal report; surprise loss per shr., rev. missed & cut FY outlook. Royal Caribbean (RCL): Profit beat & lifted FY view. Sherwin-Williams (SHW): Bottom line underwhelmed & midpoint of FY outlook fell short of Wall St. exp. UPS (UPS): Q metrics surpassed & lifted FY guidance. Johnson Controls (JCI): Strong earnings w/ stellar outlook. Boeing (BA): Deeper loss per shr. than exp, but rev. & adj. FCF topped; 737 production won't reach 2018 levels by 2029. JetBlue (JBLU): Results showed rev. growth, better-than-exp. fare recovery against higher fuel costs and improving operating margins, while mgmt. reaffirmed its goal of returning to operating profit next year. FX The Dollar Index gained, albeit with mixed performance vs. G10 peers. Risk catalysts for the Greenback were quite light on Tuesday as participants await a deluge of upcoming key events, namely the FOMC decision and Warsh's following press conference, Mag-7 earnings, and PCE data. Back to Tuesday, there were several data releases, but no tier-1 metrics, although figures broadly impressed; durable goods, consumer confidence, and new home sales all topped Wall St. expectations, but Richmond Fed did marginally disappoint as the headline was unchanged at -2, against an anticipated rise to 0. As mentioned, G10 performance was mixed as CHF, GBP, JPY, CAD, and EUR all lost ground to differing degrees against the Dollar. For the Pound, the UK Budget is due on Wednesday, and The Times earlier reported that Chancellor Healey will announce plans to raise the minimum wage by nearly 4%. Elsewhere, currency-specific newsflow was fairly sparse, but both the BoJ and ECB meet later this week. For the Euro, ING thinks EUR/USD probably retains some downside risks at these levels as the dominating USD leg may find a bit more support ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC. The next key support is 1.1100, and at the moment ING does not see it breaking below that mark. The Antipodeans were the clear gainers, buoyed by risk sentiment and positioning ahead of the RBNZ rate decision overnight, where a hike is expected; the NZIER Shadow Board also recommended one. Money markets are nearly fully priced for a 25bps hike, and with the Kiwi the third-best-performing G10 currency this month, a hawkish hike is what is required for the currency performance to continue. However, desks write that risks are skewed to the downside for NZD and even if the RBNZ does deliver a hawkish hike, investors will at some point likely question the extent of hikes priced. MUFG expects NZD to underperform over the forecast period ahead. BRL was firmer, unwinding some of Monday's extensive losses after the surprise election result, in which left-wing incumbent Lula won a fourth term. Following Lula's win many BCB officials have been on the wires, with Governor Galipolo stating the BCB only intervenes in the FX market when it identifies market dysfunction. Moreover, Director Picchetti stated economic activity is showing a very clear slowdown, concentrated in cyclical sectors.