Fed's Hammack (Voter, Hawk) says Treasury rates right now are "modest" by historic standards
Hammack described Treasury rates as modest by historical standards, cited possible inflation-expectations concerns, and said more restraint is needed while protecting employment.
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Neutral rate is likely higher but it is hard to pin down. If economy were to return to 3% home mortgage, it would likely mean something had gone wrong in the economy. Hearing early warning signs of a possible problem with inflation expectations. Need to cool the economy at the margins. Higher interest rates will not dissuade hyperscalers but it might influence firms in other industries. Question for the Fed now is how fast to make policy more restrictive. Do not want to threaten the jobs side of the Fed's mandate. More restraint is needed, if monetary policy does nothing market conditions would change. Has one of the higher FOMC projections for the neutral rate.
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