Newsquawk Fed Speak Primer/Schedule: Rate hike bets pick up after Waller and hot CPI

The inflation side of the mandate has been the key focus for the Federal Reserve recently, especially since Chair Warsh started his term, and that focus has not shifted, as the Committee remains intent on getting inflation back to its 2% target. Prior to the US CPI report today, influential Fed Governor Waller said that a half-point rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher, though he would support a quarter-point hike even if CPI improves, adding further tightening will be needed. He called US inflation too high and September’s data bad, citing concern over breadth of price increases. The CPI print came in hotter than expected, as core M/M printed 0.3% (3dp 0.296%), meeting Waller's threshold and above the expected 0.2%. Headline M/M rose 0.4% (3dp 0.350%), surpassing Wall St. expectations of 0.3%, albeit easing from September's 0.6%. Looking ahead, hopes of a Middle East de-escalation are pulling energy costs lower, with retail gasoline prices now below USD 4/gallon for the first time since mid-July. If that continues, ING writes it should provide a meaningful drag on November headline inflation, but the Federal Reserve will not get that data until the day after the December FOMC meeting. In terms of the upcoming Fed speakers, there are plenty scheduled, and they take on even greater importance given Waller’s hawkish remarks as participants await the 9th December confab. The influential NY Fed President Williams is always closely watched, while the recent hawkish dissenters will be monitored for signs of whether a broader hawkish bloc is forming ahead of December. At the last meeting, where the Fed left rates unchanged, Cook and Hammack voted in favour of a 25bps hike - Hammack is speaking on Thursday this week, with no Cook comments currently scheduled. The dissents before that came at the July meeting, when Hammack (again), Logan and Kashkari voted for a 25bps hike, vs. the decision to leave rates on hold. Fed speak schedule: November 10th: 15:50GMT/10:50EST: Logan (2026 voter) gives opening remarks at energy conference 18:30GMT/13:30EST: Schmid (2028 voter) takes part in fireside chat 20:30GMT/15:30EST: Bowman (voter) on the economic outlook 23:30GMT/18:30EST: Paulson (2026 voter) on the economic outlook November 12th: 14:00GMT/09:00EST: Hammack (2026 voter) takes part in moderated conversation 16:30GMT/11:30EST: Goolsbee (2027 voter) speaks at Yahoo! Finance event 18:10GMT/13:10EST: Daly (2027 voter) speaks on policy in the age of AI 18:30GMT/13:30EST: Schmid (2028 voter) on the economic outlook 23:30GMT/18:30EST: Williams (voter) takes part in panel discussion November 13th: 14:10GMT/09:10EST: Collins (2028 voter) gives opening remarks 15:50GMT/10:50EST: Bowman (voter) on supervision and regulation 16:10GMT/11:10EST: Daly (2027 voter) speaks at UNLV 00:00GMT/19:00EST: Jefferson (voter) speaks at UC San Diego November 16th: 14:05GMT/09:05EST: Williams (voter) delivers opening remarks 17:00GMT/12:00EST: Chair Warsh gives opening remarks November 17th: 14:30GMT/09:30EST: Hammack (2026 voter) discusses Treasury market November 18th: 19:30GMT/14:30EST: Williams (voter) speaks at a New York Fed event Money Market pricing: Now assign a 10% probability of a 50bps hike in December. Implied bps priced in by the market post and pre-CPI; calculated via CME FedWatch 2026: Dec 27.6bps (prev. 24.7bps) 2027: Jan 37.9bps (prev. 33.9bps) Mar 52.6bps (prev. 46.6bps) Apr 57.4bps (prev. 51.3bps) Jun 65.8bps (prev. 57.9bps) Jul 66.7bps (prev. 58.3bps) Sep 67.6bps (prev. 59.5bps) Oct 66.6bps (prev. 58.9bps) Dec 63.0bps (prev. 55.7bps) A 25bps hike is now fully discounted for December 2026, with a slight probability of a 50bps move now being priced.