Primer: Monetary Authority of Singapore Monetary Policy Review announcement due today at 01:00BST/20:00EDT

MAS is expected to modestly tighten its FX-based policy at its quarterly monetary policy review today, with one major newswire poll showing all 10 economists surveyed unanimously forecast the central bank to tighten today amid strong growth and increasing inflation risks. As a reminder, the central bank has tightened policy at the last two policy reviews and opted for a very slight increase in the prevailing rate of appreciation of the Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate in July, which was the first time it opted to increase the rate of appreciation of the policy band ‘very slightly’ with the extent of the increase smaller than that in April, while it made no change to the width of the policy band and the level at which it is centred. Furthermore, it stated that inflation could pick up more strongly than anticipated if energy price spikes anew and that Singapore's imported costs are likely to rise in the quarters ahead, while MAS core inflation is projected to step up from July and remain elevated, but should moderate discernibly from around mid-2027.  MAS also noted the expectation is that overall GDP will be sustained at high levels in the near term, with Singapore's economy forecast to record a firm pace of growth for 2026 as a whole. As such, the MAS is expected to continue with its incremental slope adjustments, while the central bank will likely keep refraining from making changes to the width of the policy band and the level at which it is centred.