[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude benchmarks off highs after the Ras Tanura-related upside; Saudi alerts continue, OPEC+ seen holding December output

Crude benchmarks dipped in the APAC session amid a lack of major geopolitical escalation, but climbed as Europe stepped in, before paring some of that upside to currently sit in the upper half of today's ranges. WTI Dec'26 trades within a USD 100.60-102.82/bbl range, and Brent Jan'27 within a USD 109.53-111.91/bbl range; both remain within Monday's parameters (WTI: USD 100.33-103.13/bbl; Brent: USD 109.22-112.20/bbl). The move higher came after Iranian state media IRIB, citing Arab media, reported that Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery (550k BPD) was targeted by missiles; reports later suggested the fire was contained. More recently, Saudi Civil Defence issued an emergency alert in Najran, while the Houthis claimed an attack on Abha and Khamis Mushait, with explosions reportedly heard in both cities and at Khamis Mushait Air Base; Saudi Civil Defence has since said the danger has passed. Elsewhere, sources said OPEC+ is expected to maintain December oil production targets at Sunday's meeting. Dutch TTF is lower by c. 0.8% within a EUR 94.85-96.70/MWh range. Iranian President Pezeshkian met Qatar's Emir at the GECF summit in Moscow, where they discussed expanding energy cooperation, while Press TV reported that Iran, Russia and Azerbaijan are discussing a gas swap agreement. Spot gold slipped back beneath the USD 4k/oz mark in the European morning, and sits towards the bottom end of a USD 3,989-4,026/oz range alongside the firmer Dollar, well beneath its 100-DMA (USD 4,218/oz) and 200-DMA (USD 4,504/oz). Spot silver is lower by c. 1.4% within a USD 52.67-54.23/oz range. Copper is firmer, with CME copper futures up c. 0.9% and at the top of a USD 6.54-6.60/lb range, having edged higher overnight alongside the tech-related momentum in stocks. 3M LME copper trades in a USD 14,322.18-14,446.72/t range.