OPEC MOMR (Oct): 2026 demand trimmed, 2027 demand modestly increased; supply forecasts modestly increased

World Oil Demand: Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.2mln BPD Y/Y (prev. 0.4mln BPD Y/Y) in 2026; global oil demand in 2027 is forecast to grow by about 2.6mln BPD (prev. 2.4mln Y/Y BPD) World Oil Supply: In September, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 0.9mln BPD M/M to average about 39.07mln BPD (vs average of 38.05mln BPD in June), according to available secondary sources. Non-DoC liquids production (i.e. liquids production from countries not participating in the DoC) is forecast to expand by about 0.6mln BPD Y/Y in 2026 and 2027, both unchanged from the prior month’s assessment. This growth will mainly be driven by Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina. Balance of Supply and Demand: The demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) in 2026 is revised down from last month’s assessment to 42.1mln (prev. 42.2mln BPD), 0.6mln BPD lower than the 2025 level. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 is revised up from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 43.9mln BPD (prev. 43.9mln BPD), which is about 1.8mln BPD above the 2026 forecast. Output OPEC+ crude output, including former member UAE, averaged 39.07mln bpd in September 2026, up around 900k bpd from August, Saudi Saudi Arabia produced 8.372mln bpd of crude in September, up from 6.238mln bpd in August.