Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 2nd October 2026

Energy complex falls on reports that the EU discussed a proposal to release diesel from stockpiles (Brent -3.2%, EU Gasoil -5.5%). US equity futures climb, while NKE falls on a downbeat earnings report. DXY slightly lower; JPY gains on hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI. Fixed income benchmarks benefiting from lower energy prices as markets await the US jobs report. Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP (Sep). Speakers include ECB’s Vujcic & Fed's Logan. Credit Ratings update from Scope on the US. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 +1.1% DAX40 +1.1% Stoxx 600 +0.9% FTSE 100 +0.5% ES Dec'26 +0.5% RTY Dec'26 +0.6% NQ Dec'26 +0.8% YM Dec'26 +0.5% FX DXY -0.1% (101.91) EUR/USD +0.1% (1.1252) USD/JPY -0.3% (157.55) GBP/USD +0.1% (1.3213) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 U/C Bund Dec'26 +95 ticks US 10yr Yield 5.230% German 10yr Yield 3.430% ENERGY & METALS WTI Nov'26 -4.2% Brent Dec'26 -3.2% Spot Gold +0.2% LME Copper +0.3% CRYPTO Bitcoin +1.6% Ethereum +1.7% As of 10:30BST / 05:30EDT EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.9%) are firmer across the board as they pare back some of Thursday's losses. A pullback in energy prices seems to be supporting equities, with recent Reuters reporting that France is proposing to release 50mln barrels of diesel from Europe and 50mln barrels of crude oil across IEA members, further weighing on the crude complex. Sectors highlight the clear positive bias. Tech leads sectors higher, with Basic Resources and Travel & Leisure following suit, while Health Care is the sector laggard. US equity futures are also higher, with outperformance in the NQ. Focus was on Nike earnings after hours, in which shares fell 8.6% in extended US trading after revenue missed expectations, and the company forecast a FY sales decline, with weakness in Greater China, sportswear and the Jordan Brand, while restructuring plans and further layoffs added to concerns despite an earnings beat. The poor results also had an effect on its European peers before climbing amid the upbeat risk tone. Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow Click for the additional news FX G10s are broadly firmer against the USD, which has been pressured alongside pressure yields and pressure in the energy complex. That was facilitated by reports that France has proposed plans to release 50mln barrels of diesel from Europe (vs the US request of 120mln over 180 days), and perhaps more pertinently 50mln barrels of crude oil across IEA members – this would include the US. Given the recent pressure in yields, the index is under mild pressure this morning and currently holds towards the lower end of a 101.79 to 102.13 range – but still around the prior day’s peak. A material bout of pressure for the USD would likely require significant progress between US-Iran and/or confirmation of a crude stock release. Bar that, the index will likely trade tentatively around the current range as markets await US NFP later today. The US economy is expected to add 90k nonfarm payrolls in September. Analysts note that the August data, where 162k payroll additions were reported, may have been subject to favourable seasonal adjustments, and will be watching to see if the data is revised lower in September. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%, an expectation supported by the Chicago Fed’s flash real-time unemployment rate forecast. (A full preview can be found in the Newsquawk Research Suite). CHF is the outperformer across G10s this morning, extending on recent gains. There appears to be a bit of an unwind of the recent carry trade that the CHF was subject to, with net positioning of long-shorts at c. -16.45k over the past 3 months. Further helping is some haven-related demand stemming from the French fiscal situation. Elsewhere, JPY also holds towards the top of the G10 pile, also buoyed by the yield situation. Domestically, Tokyo CPI accelerated in September, and broadly topped expectations. A report which will no doubt boost calls for the BoJ to hike; it seems like the BoJ is now dealing with waning sentiment across Japanese businesses (evidenced in the latest Tankan survey), and rising inflation in a key leading indicator. EUR is a touch firmer this morning, with focus ultimately on the region’s inflation report. Headline Y/Y printed at 3.8% (exp. 3.6%, prev. 3.2%), and Services also rose from the prior. Pertinently, Core HICP moved only a touch higher to 2.2% (prev. 2.1%), which will be welcomed for policymakers, since there is still little evidence of second-round effects. Nonetheless, woes of rising inflation remain – and this data will only further cement calls for another hike later this year. FIXED INCOME A modestly firmer start to the day has extended into one of marked gains across EGBs and Gilts, with the bulk of the move following a constructive report on energy supplies. However, while a touch firmer, USTs have not really budged from the unchanged mark, into an afternoon dominated by the September NFP report. In brief, the headline is seen at 90k while the August figure of 162k could be subject to a downward revision after potential distortion from seasonal adjustments. For the Fed, the data isn’t expected to have a significant impact as long as it doesn’t change the broad description of a stable and close to full employment labour market, with inflation very much the focus point. Back in Europe, Bunds peaked at 121.37, notching a new high for the week and on track to close the week out with gains of c. 150 ticks (100 of that is from today, at the time of writing), the first positive weekly return since August. While the reported energy stockpile releases will be welcome in the immediacy, it does not change the US-Iran picture, supply risk through Hormuz and the usage of stockpiles now could have a knock on effect during winter. Though, the El Nino will see warmer weather may push any cold spell to later in the season, potentially giving the region some stockpile breathing room. EGBs generally trade with the above. For France, OATs hit a 108.76 peak, firmer by 36 ticks at best, but at the lower-end of the WTD 108.02-110.36 band, after the poorly received draft budget. This morning, Moody’s updated on the draft plan and highlighted the clear fiscal and political risks facing France, points that dominate thinking in the French bond space. Reflecting this, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread peaked at 146bps this morning, vs 110bps at the start of the week. No real move to the September Flash HICP, with energy once again driving the upside but no overt signs of second round effects as the core components remain at acceptable levels; though, the absolute level means further tightening remains a valid call. Gilts also benefit from the energy moves. At an 84.81 session high, firmer by c. 100 ticks at best and set to end the week at highs. Australia sells AUD 1.2bln 4.50% April 2033 bonds: b/c 3.00x, avg. yield 5.108%. COMMODITIES WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are sharply lower after yesterday’s rally, with pressure intensifying during the European morning on reports France proposed releasing 50mln bbls of diesel from Europe alongside 50mln bbls of crude across IEA members. The proposal would be conditional on a US commitment not to impose a unilateral diesel export ban and follows Washington’s request for major European countries to release diesel reserves. WTI fell from USD 90.80/bbl to USD 89.88/bbl on the report, while Brent fell from USD 100.90/bbl to USD 99.76/bbl. European gasoil futures fell over 4% on the reports. Prior to this, the complex was already under pressure despite continued US-Iran tensions, with Trump reportedly telling aides he expects bombing of Iran to resume in November and the Pentagon sending a third carrier strike group to the region. WTI and Brent currently trades at session lows, with the former briefly falling below the USD 89/bbl mark while the latter touches the USD 99/bbl handle. Dutch TTF is also softer despite continued European energy-security concerns heading into winter, with attention dominated by discussions around coordinated energy-stock releases. TTF trades towards the lower end of a EUR 71.05-73.61/MWh range. Precious metals are firmer ahead of US NFP, helped by the pullback in oil prices and some reprieve in global yields. Spot gold trades towards the upper end of a USD 4,134-4,197/oz range, having recovered further from yesterday’s USD 4,139/oz low, while spot silver is similarly firmer within a USD 60.22-61.56/oz range. Base metals were subdued overnight with mainland China still absent for the week-long holiday, but have since clambered into the green on the aforementioned pullback in energy and subsequent boost to risk. 3M LME copper trades in a USD 14,243.03- 14,380.38/t range at the time of writing. EU countries discussed a French proposal to release 50mln barrels of diesel from Europe and 50mln barrels of crude oil across IEA members, in response to the US' threat of a diesel export ban, Reuters reported citing sources. The report added that any agreement on further stock releases should include a US commitment to avoid a unilateral diesel export ban. France's Elysee said President Macron spoke with US President Trump about energy and fuel prices. European Commissioner Jorgensen said the EU is discussing with all IEA members, not only the US, when it is time to release diesel stocks. Ukrainian Agricultural Minister said that the area planted to winter wheat in 2027 could decline about 17%. TRADE/TARIFFS US President Trump said the trade deficit with China has dropped to the lowest in 44 years and that he gets along great with Chinese President Xi, while he added that China used to rip the US badly and that Canada is ripping the US badly. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES BoE Decision Maker Panel (Sep): Year-ahead CPI inflation expectations 3.1% (prev. 3.1%), Three-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations 2.8% (prev. 2.8%), expected wage growth remained at 3.4%. UK PM Burnham is reportedly leaving the door open to a snap general election next year, according to The i Paper. Moody's said France's ability to tackle key policy difficulties despite political fragmentation is a key factor for the resolution of the negative outlook. NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP European HICP (Sep YY) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.2%); Services 3.2% (prev. 3%). European HICP (Sep MM) 0.6% (Prev. 0.4%). European Core HICP (Sep YY) 2.2% (prev. 2.1%). European HICP Ex Food, Energy & Tobacco (Sep YY) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.4%). CENTRAL BANKS Fed's Logan (2026 voter) said the policy rate needs to increase an additional 50bps or more and that without higher rates, inflation will not get to the 2% goal, while she added that policy is not sufficiently restrictive and needs to become modestly tighter. Logan said price stability must be restored and at a minimum, several further rate hikes would reverse last autumn’s cuts. She also stated that it remains uncertain how high the policy rate must go to bring inflation back towards 2%. Fed's Bowman (voter) said she sees no urgent need for more rate moves this year, while she touted benefits of a Fed capital plan tied to treasuries. ECB's Rehn told Econostream that ECB forecasts are facing extremely high and widespread uncertainty and that the energy surge is nearer to the adverse scenario. Rehn added that one uncertainty is that market sentiment toward AI could reverse suddenly, while higher long-term rates will slow economic growth and reduce the pass-through of energy shocks to prices and wages. NOTABLE US HEADLINES US President Trump posted "Republicans in the Senate have to get moving on what I call the “No More Changing of Clocks Act,” officially known as The Sunshine Protection Act". Amazon (AMZN) is reportedly looking to offload around USD 8bln of NVIDIA's (NVDA) Grace Blackwell chips to external investors through a special-purpose vehicle to help strengthen its balance sheet, the FT reported. BofA Flow Show (w/e 30th September): USD 18.8bln to bonds, 15.8bln to stocks, 0.9bln to crypto, 0.7bln to gold, 118.0bln from cash on quarter-end; Bull and Bear indicator 8.8 (prev. 9.3). GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST US President Trump reiterated that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon and has no navy or army, while he stated that Iran has not been able to get one of its vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for months. Trump also said huge quantities of oil have passed through the Strait of Hormuz and the US is taking out millions of barrels of oil, claiming that in some cases, it is more than before the war. US President Trump said the Iran war will be ending soon, one way or the other, and that it looks like Iran was involved in the UK base incident. Trump warned that Iran will be hit very hard if it is behind the copilot who tried to crash a flight to Israel, while he separately commented that based on what he heard, Iran was connected to the attempted attack on the plane. The Iranian National Security Commission said that Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz will be applied. Ships to Zionist or hostile regimes will not be able to pass through the Strait, others will have to get permission. Bill is queued for parliament. IRGC said three UAE-linked tankers attacked recently in the Strait of Hormuz were on the PGWA's non-compliance list, and had transited the Strait repeatedly over the past two months. Saudi‑led coalition intercepted and destroyed ballistic missiles launched by Yemeni Houthis towards Khamis Mushait. RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russia's Kremlin said Russia will continue operations to completely stop supply of weapons and fuel for the Ukrainian military via the Black Sea. Russia's Defence Ministry said they struck a vessel in the Black Sea and an industrial production complex at the port of Izmail in Ukraine’s Odessa region overnight, according to IFX. OTHER South Korean President Lee said they will take additional measures if Ukraine continues to deny the agreement on North Korean prisoners of war repatriation, while he called on Ukraine to acknowledge the agreement and apologise. CRYPTO Bitcoin has regained the USD 86k handle, topping at USD 86.9k in the Asian session as the constructive risk tone across markets feeds into the cryptocoin. APAC TRADE APAC stocks traded mixed following the ultimately choppy performance stateside as oil prices climbed, yields pulled back, and participants digested a slew of data, while all eyes turn to the looming NFP report. ASX 200 mildly gained, with the index led by strength in tech and energy, albeit with further upside capped amid a lack of fresh catalysts and with real estate and healthcare at the other end of the spectrum. Nikkei 225 retreated as participants digested the latest data releases, including a surprise uptick in the Unemployment Rate and the hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI data, which was said to be driven by an unwinding of price suppression effects from targeted government subsidies. KOSPI traded indecisively following the somewhat mixed South Korean CPI data, in which the Y/Y reading slowed to 2.9% from 3.1%, as expected, but remained above the central bank's 2% target. Hang Seng underperformed on return from the holiday closure, with Stock Connect trade remaining shut owing to the week-long closure in the mainland, while pressure was seen in auto names following monthly sales updates and with casino stocks in the red after Macau casino revenue declined last month. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi said Japan is no longer in deflation, so there is no need for excessively loose monetary policy that favours higher inflation, while he added that the Takaichi administration's policy is different from reflationary policy that aims to pull Japan out of deflation, and is different from Abenomics in that it seeks to achieve both a strong economy and fiscal discipline and focuses on boosting Japan's supply capabilities. NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP Japanese Tokyo Core CPI (Sep YY) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 1.8%). Japanese Tokyo CPI (Sep YY) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 1.9%). Japanese Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (Sep YY) 3.0% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.0%). South Korean CPI (Sep YY) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.1%). South Korean CPI (Sep MM) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%).