Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News - 29th September 2026

US stocks declined with all major indices in the red and the Nasdaq the underperformer, while the sectors were predominantly lower, led by Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary and Financials, while Staples, Health Care and Energy were the only sectors to finish with gains. Treasuries sold off across the curve, with yields rising around 7-9bps amid choppy US-Iran headlines. Yields pared from highs alongside crude as reports suggested potential progress towards sanctions relief and a nuclear agreement, although subsequent reports said the chances of a deal remain extremely slim, while Press TV cited an official who noted that reports of Iranian flexibility on the nuclear issue are false. USD saw slight gains on Monday, as geopolitical updates dominated the tape ahead of pivotal US data later in the week, namely, NFP, PCE, and ISM Manufacturing PMI. There was no tier-1 data on Monday, while Fed's Cook said there are signs of broadening pressure in inflation data and expects to see continued inflation pressure in the coming months from AI and the Middle East conflict. Nonetheless, Dollar price action was dictated by oil moves, as the Buck saw highs as crude benchmarks rose through the European session. Looking ahead, highlights include Australian Household Spending, Japanese Leading Index, RBA Rate Decision, RBA Governor Bullock's Press Conference, Supply from Japan. SNAPSHOT STOCKS S&P 500 -0.8% Nasdaq Comp. -0.9% DJIA -0.7% Russell 2000 -0.6% ES Dec'26 -0.7% RTY Dec'26 -0.7% NQ Dec'26 -1.1% YM Dec'26 -0.6% FX DXY +0.2% (101.20) EUR/USD -0.2% USD/JPY +0.1% GBP/USD +0.1% BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -12.5 ticks 10yr Bund Dec'26 -2 ticks US 10yr Yield 5.24% German 10yr Yield 3.64% ENERGY & METALS WTI Nov'26 +1.0% Brent Dec'26 +1.0% Spot Gold -4.0% LME Copper -1.0% CRYPTO Bitcoin -1.1% Ethereum Flat As of 21:50BST/16:50EDT LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include Australian Household Spending, Japanese Leading Index, RBA Rate Decision, RBA Governor Bullock's Press Conference, Supply from Japan. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump said they will win the Iran war very soon and gas prices will come tumbling down, while he added that inflation will be eradicated after the war with Iran ends. Trump also stated that US officials spoke with Iran mediators today. US official said Washington is continuing positive discussions with Iran through intermediaries, and there will be no agreement without addressing the nuclear issue, while it was also reported that a US official said President Trump is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue, according to Al Jazeera. US official involved in Iran talks said President Trump wants a permanent deal with full terms, while a US source involved in Iran talks said there is growing anger in Iran over the economic situation, according to Al Arabiya. Furthermore, a US source said Iran has agreed to halt enrichment in exchange for easing US sanctions, while mediators are pressuring Iran to make nuclear concessions, according to Al Hadath. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they will continue to degrade the Iranian regime’s ability to fund terrorism and develop a nuclear weapon. Talks continuing between the US and Iran through intermediaries are positive and constructive, according to Sky News Arabia citing US media, although it was noted that there will be no agreement unless the issues related to the nuclear file are addressed. Furthermore, Iran has shown flexibility on nuclear issues, but the two sides still differ on the timing of commitments and steps, while the US doubts Iran's commitments after it violated the MoU by firing on commercial ships. Iranian officials are reportedly pessimistic about reaching a deal with the US before the midterm elections, while talks in New York made limited progress, with nuclear concessions and reopening Hormuz remaining key sticking points. Iran has agreed to halt enrichment in exchange for easing US sanctions, according to Al Hadath. Mediators are pressuring Iran to make nuclear concessions. Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran remains ready for dialogue despite being attacked during previous talks, but pressure and attacks will not force Iran to surrender. Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi told NBC News on Sunday that Iran is ‘fully prepared’ for war to resume, but diplomacy is not over yet. Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi's New York stay has not been extended, which was subsequently confirmed by the Iranian spokesperson. It was earlier reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi was to meet with mediators in New York, but with no US representatives present at the meeting, according to Irib and ISNA citing sources. Mediators were expected to hold separate talks with the US and Iran on Monday or Tuesday, with Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi and Qatari mediators remaining in the US, while talks were to focus on an amended version of the 7-day proposal Iran presented on UNGA sidelines, according to sources. Iranian source told Amwaj Media that whilst some reports alleged that mediators in a last-ditch effort have suggested that Tehran frontload nuclear-related concessions to get buy-in from Trump, no such proposal has been made, while a second source said in the absence of any discernible progress, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi is likely to imminently depart from New York. Reports published by some news outlets about Iran showing flexibility over its nuclear position are false, according to Press TV citing an official. Furthermore, it was stated that Iran’s position on the nuclear issue remains unchanged, while the official stressed that no discussions are taking place on the matter, as well as stated that the US government is “stuck” in the Strait of Hormuz and is raising the nuclear issue to deflect attention from the problem. Iran’s Supreme Leader said all segments of Iranian society will firmly defend their legitimate positions, including safeguarding security in the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, he said, "The enemy wants to return our country to days filled with humiliation and subservience", as well as affirmed "the past days our enemy wishes to return to are gone and will never be repeated." Iran Deputy Speaker of Parliament said Iran's Parliament is reviewing the three-point plan to withdraw from the NPT, according to Fars News Agency. Iran Brigadier General Safavi said Arab states must know Iran has extended the hand of friendship to them and the US will not return to the region again, while he warned that if the US starts another war, a new front will be opened against them. IRGC reportedly captures a second US submarine drone, according to Sepah News. Iran and Yemen dossiers featured strongly in Saudi-US foreign ministers' meeting, while it was stated that US President Trump will not back down from the economic siege on Tehran and wants Hormuz reopened without conditions, according to Al Arabiya. UK Defence Minister Streeting said the Iranian regime poses a threat to the UK, but does not want to link the Iran conflict with the RAF incident. Houthis reiterated that passage through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait continues, except for Saudi Arabian ships, according to ISNA. Yemeni Houthi-linked military source said vital bridges in Saudi Arabia, particularly in Riyadh, could be added to its target list in response to Saudi strikes on Yemeni infrastructure, according to N12 citing Lebanese press. Saudi Foreign Minister discussed with US Secretary of State Rubio the situation in Yemen and efforts being made regarding it, while they also discussed political developments and the importance of protecting navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Lebanese PM said he stressed the need to activate the tripartite framework in a way that leads to the restoration of Lebanon's sovereignty and the withdrawal of Israel, while US Secretary of State Rubio confirmed America's commitment to supporting the Lebanese army, according to Al Jazeera. US TRADE US stocks declined with all major indices in the red and the Nasdaq the underperformer, while the sectors were predominantly lower, led by Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary and Financials, while Staples, Health Care and Energy were the only sectors to finish with gains. Treasuries sold off across the curve, with yields rising around 7-9bps amid choppy US-Iran headlines. Yields pared from highs alongside crude as reports suggested potential progress towards sanctions relief and a nuclear agreement, although subsequent reports said the chances of a deal remain extremely slim, while Press TV cited an official who noted that reports of Iranian flexibility on the nuclear issue are false. SPX -0.76% at 7,685, NDX -1.08% at 30,277, DJI -0.67% at 51,482, RUT -0.63% at 2,820. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE US President Trump said he had a very respectful meeting with Chinese President Xi and would rate it a 12 on a scale of 0-10, while he said that an arms sale to China was not discussed. US President Trump said Canada wants a deal and they call the US all the time, while he thinks that a deal will be made. US President Trump's administration is in favour of an announcement of an early harvest deal with Mexico before the US Midterms, although some sticking points remain around agriculture, while the source added that the stage is set for a deal, according to Politico. NOTABLE HEADLINES Fed’s Cook (voter) expects to see continued inflation pressure in coming months from AI and the Middle East conflict, while she added that the labour market is well positioned to handle an increase in rates and noted signs of broadening pressure in inflation data. Cook added that gains will not come in time to offset broadening inflation this year, and she is highly attentive to a scenario in which AI leads to at least a temporary rise in unemployment. Fed's Barkin (2027 voter) said he would not say AI is immune to rate pressure, while adding that low unemployment is a key factor for consumption. White House Economic Adviser Hassett estimates productivity growth right now at 2.5%, while the base case on GDP growth should be around 4%* DATA RECAP US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep) 9.8 (Prev. 11.6) FX USD saw slight gains on Monday, as geopolitical updates dominated the tape ahead of pivotal US data later in the week, namely, NFP, PCE, and ISM Manufacturing PMI. There was no tier-1 data on Monday, while Fed's Cook said there are signs of broadening pressure in inflation data and expects to see continued inflation pressure in the coming months from AI and the Middle East conflict. Nonetheless, Dollar price action was dictated by oil moves, as the Buck saw highs as crude benchmarks rose through the European session. EUR mildly softened with some headwinds seen amid comments from ECB President Lagarde that she views a measured response as appropriate to keep inflation in check, while she noted that growth was broad-based across most countries and sectors, with this pattern expected to have continued in Q3 and stated they remain in the middle path for monetary policy that was laid out earlier this year. GBP eked out marginal gains in choppy trade amid several BoE comments and reports that UK PM Burnham is expected to edge Labour closer to rejoining the EU and will signal the end of the pensions triple lock in his conference speech on Tuesday. JPY saw two-way price action with USD/JPY gradually recovering from a dip beneath the 157.00 handle, with early pressure seen following jawboning from Japanese FX Official Mimura, who stated that they are closely watching to see if markets take the clear message they are giving at face value, while he added he is not satisfied with or reassured by recent JPY action. FIXED INCOME T-notes were lower and yields climbed across the curve amid a slew of conflicting geopolitical headlines ahead of key US data this week. COMMODITIES Oil prices were choppy, but ultimately settled with slight gains in heavy, albeit conflicting, headline newsflow including reports that the US is continuing positive discussions with Iran through intermediaries and that Iran has agreed to halt enrichment in exchange for easing US sanctions. However, other reports noted that chances of an agreement are extremely slim, with gaps wide and obstacles significant, while an official cited by Iran's Press TV said reports of Iran showing flexibility over its nuclear position are false. Saudi Arabia resumed oil exports via the East-West pipeline following repairs and was reportedly operating at a throughput rate of around 3.5mln BPD. Qatar has reportedly extended its force majeure on LNG shipments to Asia and Europe by another month, according to Bloomberg. A massive explosion occurred in a gas pipeline in Deir Ezzor, Syria, which is located near the Iraqi border, according to Tasnim. European Energy Commissioner wrote to 27 member states ahead of the meeting, inviting them to consider taking or continuing to take measures that can reduce gas and electricity demand for as long as necessary, while the informal talks are not expected to result in major decisions, but will help coordinate action among the bloc's nations, according to AFP. Workers at Chile's Centinela mine in Antofagasta reportedly rejected the contract offer. GEOPOLITICAL RUSSIA-UKRAINE Ukrainian President Zelensky said they hit a Russian oil facility within the Krasnodar area. Ukraine does not expect a Black Sea ceasefire in the coming months. US President Trump's envoys are touting “real progress” after holding talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, including negotiations on the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Iran conflict, according to the NY Post. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES PBoC and seven other government bodies issued guidance to expand capacity and improve the quality of China’s service sector through financial support. Japanese Finance Ministry proposed a cut to mid-term JGB liquidity auctions, given improved JGB market functions, and proposed reducing 5-11 year liquidity enhancement bond supply. Japanese FX Official Mimura said they are closely watching to see if markets take the clear message they are giving at face value and are not satisfied with or reassured by recent JPY action, while he added that the BoJ's clear shift onto a rate-hiking path is gradually narrowing the Japan-US yield gap and that a clear message was sent to the US on rates. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK PM Burnham is expected to edge Labour closer to rejoining the EU as he prepares to address the Labour Party conference for the first time as prime minister, while ministers have stated it is now a question of how much he emphasises the UK’s return to Europe, rather than if, according to The Independent. UK PM Burnham will signal the end of the pensions triple lock in his conference speech on Tuesday, according to The Telegraph. BoE's Dhingra said she is worried that high rates would hit investment and lower supply. BoE's Ramsden said his holds to the Bank Rate since March have effectively delivered a tightening relative to where he thought we might otherwise have been, while he thinks the risks to the inflation outlook, whether external or domestically generated, have tilted more to the upside. Furthermore, he said whilst the policy stance continues to provide restrictiveness, there could be a case for increasing the Bank Rate if upside pressures on the inflation outlook continue to build. BoE's Ramsden said more on second-round effects will be known ahead of the next few meetings, while they appear to be in a position of higher and longer-lasting headline inflation. ECB President Lagarde said growth was broad-based across most countries and sectors, with this pattern expected to have continued in Q3, while she added that manufacturing is performing solidly, the labour market remains robust, and that major technological advancements have not reduced employment, although the verdict on AI is still out. ECB's Lagarde said that thus far "we are seeing energy support from government in the 0.1% of GDP range" and that work is underway on swap lines for sovereignty of the Euro Area. She also stated that rates are at the upper end of the neutral range, but policy is not being driven with reference to the neutral range, as well as stated that the energy subsidy impact will be at 0.1% based on the staff view. ECB's Pereira said natgas price pressures could lift inflation this winter, with inflation pressures currently concentrated in energy prices.