Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News - 20th October 2026

US stocks rebounded to start the week as AI concerns eased, with the Nasdaq 100 outperforming. T-notes settled lower and yields rose as the AI equity rebound prompted a return of the Treasury sell-off. The DXY was slightly firmer with mixed G10 performance; AUD outperformed, while CAD firmed despite cooler-than-expected Canadian CPI. Crude was choppy as Trump eased Russian energy sanctions, while the Houthis claimed six attacks on Saudi Arabia in 48 hours, including on the Yanbu Aramco facility. A breakthrough is expected to be announced this week to halt the escalation between Washington and Tehran, Al Araby Al Jadeed reported, although the two sides are being urged to "make concessions"; Pakistani Army Chief Munir arrives in Tehran on Tuesday. Looking ahead, highlights include Chinese LPR (Oct), German PPI (Sep), UK Unemployment Rate Supply from Japan. SNAPSHOT STOCKS S&P 500 +0.6% Nasdaq Comp. +1.1% DJIA -0.1% Russell 2000 +0.4% ES Dec'26 +0.4% RTY Dec'26 +0.3% NQ Dec'26 +1.2% YM Dec'26 -0.1% FX DXY +0.2% (102.00) EUR/USD -0.3% (1.1210) USD/JPY +0.4% (158.54) GBP/USD -0.1% (1.3303) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -9.5 ticks 10yr Bund Dec'26 -53 ticks US 10yr Yield 5.14% German 10yr Yield 3.46% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 -0.6% Brent Dec'26 -0.4% Spot Gold -0.6% LME Copper - CRYPTO Bitcoin -0.1% Ethereum -0.4% As of 21:45BST/16:45ET LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include Chinese LPR (Oct), German PPI (Sep), UK Unemployment Rate Supply from Japan. Click for the Newsquawk Week in Focus. US TRADE US stocks rebounded to start the week as AI concerns eased over the weekend, although breadth was poor outside of AI names. Hyperscaler and mega-cap names drove gains within Tech and Consumer Discretionary (AMZN +5%, named a top pick at MS), while Utilities, Real Estate and Financials lagged (RSP -0.2% vs. SPX +0.6%). In the final hour, Bloomberg reported that Nscale is in talks with Anthropic for a USD 45bln cloud computing deal, which lifted neocloud names, although CoreWeave finished 0.4% lower despite positive sell-side commentary. SPX +0.6% at 7,708, NDX +1.1% at 29,529, DJI -0.1 at 52,041, RUT +0.4% at 2,731. NOTABLE US HEADLINES US President Trump's Administration is removing DeepSeek from civilian government agency IT systems, barring purchase of DeepSeek-related products by government agencies. US White House NEC Director Hassett said inflation looks like it is needing some work, speaking on CNBC. Discretionary travel is a good sign for the economy. Travel and airfare spending is a good sign for the economy. Thinks GDP growth rate is near 4%. The US administration is reportedly preparing to impose financial penalties on Americans who default on their federal student loans in 2027, according to reported. US Secretary of State Rubio and Uzbekistan foreign minister agree to deepen cooperation on critical minerals. TARIFFS/TRADE China's MOFCOM said China will resolutely retaliate to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese industries if the UK insists on imposing restrictions on Chinese EVs. The US and Uzbekistan have signed a package of agreements worth USD 12bln. DATA RECAP NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct) 29 vs. Exp. 32 (Prev. 32). BoC Core Measures, Average (Sep.): 2.0 (prev. 2.2%). Canadian CPI Common (Sep YY) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.6%). Canadian CPI (Sep MM) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.1%). Canadian CPI Median (Sep YY) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 2.0%). Canadian CPI (Sep YY) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.0%). Canadian Core CPI (Sep MM) 0.0% (Prev. 0.1%). Canadian CPI Trimmed-Mean (Sep YY) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.9%). Canadian Core CPI (Sep YY) 2.2% (Prev. 2.4%). FX USD was slightly firmer and saw mixed performance against G10 peers in a day of light newsflow, with no tier-1 US data due this week and the Fed in its blackout period ahead of next week's meeting. Geopolitics remained in focus as President Trump eased Russian sanctions, while Al Araby Al Jadeed reported that a breakthrough is expected this week to halt the escalation between Washington and Tehran, although it added that the two sides are being urged to "make concessions" to prevent a new war. EUR and GBP lost ground against the buck amid little currency-specific newsflow, with European sentiment hit by the French civil unrest and elevated Dutch TTF prices. JPY was pressured as higher US yields weighed on haven currencies; during European hours, USD/JPY sat just above the 158.00 mark within a 157.70-158.39 range, with markets on watch for potential jawboning after PM Takaichi touted the use of debt issuance to fund the consumption tax cut, which Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara later clarified was in the context of broader budget formulation. Antipodeans and CAD outperformed, buoyed by risk-on sentiment from the rebound in AI-related names. AUD was supported by strong Chinese data overnight (GDP and retail sales beat), while CAD firmed despite a cooler-than-expected CPI report as money markets still favour a BoC rate hike next week, assigning a 68% chance (prev. 74% pre-release). FIXED INCOME T-notes settled 6+ ticks lower at 105-08 as the easing of AI concerns over the weekend prompted a return of the Treasury sell-off alongside upside in equities, while gains in prompt crude futures on unconfirmed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities and continued turmoil in France also lifted yields. ZN hit a low of 105-04 before bouncing as oil retreated into settlement. At settlement, the 2yr yield rose 4.8bps to 4.763% and the 10yr rose 5.9bps to 5.140%. Data saw the NAHB Housing Market Index fall to 29 from 32, its lowest reading since June 2012. Fed hike pricing via CME FedWatch: Oct 4.3bps, Dec 25.8bps. US sold 3-month bills at a high rate of 4.095%, B/X 2.77x; sold 6-month bills at a high rate of 4.220%, B/C 2.84x. Walmart (WMT) is to sell a minimum of CAD 3.5bln in its four-part debt sale. Bank of NY Mellon (BNY) announces a dollar perpetual non-callable five. COMMODITIES Oil prices were mixed as WTI settled USD 0.48 higher at USD 98.54/bbl, while Brent settled USD 0.31 lower at USD 109.55/bbl. Benchmarks were initially pressured as President Trump eased Russian sanctions, with Russia set to supply over 300k tonnes of diesel in the first instance, and saw brief downside on the WSJ report that Putin proposed a meeting with Trump and Xi. Modest pressure on the reported US-Iran breakthrough was swiftly pared, while the Houthis claimed six attacks on Saudi Arabia in 48 hours, including on the Yanbu Aramco facility and the Shaybah oilfield. WTI traded between USD 96.72-99.71/bbl and Brent between USD 106.82-110.70/bbl. Spot gold was pressured as higher US yields weighed on haven alternatives, having been contained in a USD 4,155-4,190/oz range during European hours. US Energy Secretary Wright said no Russian Diesel has been released yet and yet to be seen if Russia will release diesel. Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine could stop striking Russian refineries in return for the US helping with patriot missiles for this period; Decisions taken by the US side are "hard to explain". US Energy Secretary Wright said talks with the UK on diesel stock releases are continuing; The US is converting sanctioned tankers to legitimate tankers. Dozens to hundreds of dark tankers could be converted. Goldman Sachs, on gold, estimates central bank purchases of 79 tonnes in August, (vs pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes); China was the largest identifiable buyer in August at 25 tonnes. Continues to see central bank demand as a structural support for gold. Qatar to build two power plants and sign a 20-year LNG supply deal with Lebanon under a draft electricity plan, according to documents. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said they are not interested in volatility in energy prices and need to plan development for the long term. Qatar's Energy Minister is meeting with Iran's acting oil minister in Doha, where the pair will discuss energy cooperation. Iraq oil exports averaged more than 3.4mln BPD in October to date (vs. 3mln BPD in Sept.). Unite union warns that a 24-hour strike by oil workers in the North Sea could bring down the Forties pipeline, the Guardian reported. India's NMDC has reportedly delayed plans to develop overseas nickel mines and to acquire nickel assets, according to sources. CENTRAL BANKS BoC Q3 Overall Business Outlook Survey: Shows that overall business sentiment improved in the third quarter of 2026 after deteriorating in the previous quarter. 6% of firms expect Canada to be in a recession over the next year (prev. 17% in Q2). 41% of firms expect inflation to be above 3% for next 2 years (prev. 44% in Q2). Expectations for 5yr inflation have risen to 3.91% (prev. 3.39% in Q2). CRYPTO Strategy (MSTR) purchases 267 Bitcoin for an average price of USD 82.9k (w/e Oct 18). GEOPOLITICAL MIDDLE EAST US President Trump said good situation with respect to Iran; negotiating with Russian President Putin on Ukraine; negotiating on Iran and with diesel with Russia; Russia has been fine on Ukraine. Ukraine's President Zelensky is not helping matters much. Time for someone else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine. IRGC spokesperson said 7 major cables have passed under the Strait of Hormuz, on which all the world's internet and commercial data depends; we remind the enemy of this so that they know. US Official said Iran's claim the US struck an Iranian naval base is inaccurate, reported CNN. Houthis target Marib city with ballistic missiles, reported Sky News Arabia. Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran has no fundamental differences with regional countries and is ready to resolve existing issues through dialogue. Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir arrives in Tehran on Tuesday to meet with Iranian officials, Al Jazeera reported. IRGC Spokesperson: In the new phase of the war, new weapons and targets will be unveiled, Fars reported. Houthis claim six attacks on Saudi Arabia in 48 hours; strikes include Yanbu Aramco facility, Shaybah oilfield, Riyadh and Abha airports. There is no truth to any rumours about Houthi advances in Al-Mudharabah, Ras Al-Arah, and Kahbub, reported Al Hadath citing sources. Iran said Hormuz transit can be facilitated for 'friendly nations". Iranian Vice President said to preserve our national security, we have no choice but to exercise our sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, Al Jazeera reported. Iranian Navy said that the US military attacked the Konarak naval base with “two light projectiles” early this morning, reported Al Jazeera. Said two Iranian soldiers were injured in the incident at the base. Military source said Riyadh is an unsafe capital and its oil facilities are within range of our missiles, Saba News reported. Saudi Arabia said that danger has passed in Riyadh and Al-Kharj. Early warning system activated in Riyadh and Al-Kharj, Al Arabiya reported. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran welcomes any idea that guarantees regional security without presence of foreign factors. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said they do not intend to abandon their agreements with Iran, Tass/IFX; Iranian officials expected to visit Russia at end-October. Russia is ready to provide diplomatic assistance between Iran and the US. Need to go back to negotiations with regards to Yemen. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said there is no military solution for the region's problems, they must be resolved through diplomacy. Chinese Premier said ready to advance exchanges and cooperation with Iran, Xinhua reported. "The Yemeni armed forces warn everyone to evacuate Saudi mercenary military camps and move away from these locations", Fars reported. Saudi Civil Defense issues alert over potential danger in Najran; danger has since passed. IRGC Spokesperson said "if the region becomes unsafe for Iran, there will be no more security in the region" Fars reported. IRGC spokesman said the US does not have the capacity to create a new conflict, Tasnim reported. Most of America's bases in the region have been deactivated. Its forces are worn out and exhausted and are hundreds of kilometers away from Iran. Technically and militarily, America does not have the capacity to create a new conflict, but since the elections are near, they may want to make achievements. We do not ignore the possibilities and are prepared to respond, and this time our response will be much more severe. Even if America's action is limited, the world will face a serious energy crisis. "A breakthrough is expected to be announced this week to halt the escalation between Washington and Tehran", Al Araby Al Jadeed reported citing a source. Mediation efforts are ongoing to narrow the points of contention between the two sides and urge them to make mutual concessions to prevent a renewed war. A military source told Al-Akhbar that Sanaa will continue to deal with Saudi actions in the border areas; adds that foreign mercenary forces have come to carry out hostile missions, and they will become legitimate targets inside and outside the borders. Israeli PM Netanyahu said they are ready to strike at any moment, Sky News Arabia reported. RUSSIA-UKRAINE US President Trump's envoys Kushner and Witkoff plan to travel to Norway this week for Ukraine talks and Ukraine President Zelensky is expected to join talks. US Secretary of State Rubio said ending the Russia‑Ukraine conflict is a US priority, reported Xinhua. Russia's spokesman Peskov said the topic of a possible meeting between Russian President Putin, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi, was taken into account at the APEC summit in China, but no substantive proposals were put up. Ukraine's Foreign Minister said Russia, China and the US summit would only encourage Russian President Putin to continue the war. OTHERS The operation to neutralize and destroy unexploded ordnance left over from the imposed war has begun in the north of Bandar Abbas and, according to Hormozgan officials, Nour News reported; will continue for the next two days. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES Japan reportedly plans certifications for data centers and cloud services to curb China risk, reported Nikkei; Tokyo to urge finance, other key sectors to use secure infrastructure. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK Chancellor Healey has reportedly ruled out raising capital gains tax in the October 28th Budget amid concerns over growth and investment, The Times reported. Chancellor reportedly plans to increase taxes on banks, introduce targeted cost-of-living support and reduce fiscal headroom from GBP 23bln to around GBP 15bln in the October 28th Budget. Germany's Chancellor Merz said Germany needs to overhaul social security system; No need for a fast decision on ECB positions, but a quick decision can be reached on ECB jobs if needed. Nvidia (NVDA) plans to invest "billions" in Germany. French authorities issue curfew in Lille. RN's Marine Le Pen would win the first round of the French election, Cluster 17 poll shows; Philippe and Melenchon would tie for 2nd place. Hungary's PM Magyar said the 2027 budget is to target 4.9% GDP shortfall. Hungary PM Magyar said to cut income tax on minimum wage to 9% next year; Income tax will fall for more than 2mln taxpayers next year, at a cost of HUF 250bln. To double family allowance next year; measure to cost HUF 300bln. Sweden Parliament Speaker said it has asked Centre Party Leader to explore new government formation. US President Trump said France must close its borders as migrants take over. French PM said intelligence agencies have briefed of risk that extreme-left could seek to disrupt Presidential election. French PM said that if declaration of a state emergency is a necessary move, he would do that. French PM Lecornu has given permission for partial curfews to be implemented. Furlough measures available from Tuesday, for businesses impacted. Fully resolved to restore public order. NOTABLE EUROPEAN EQUITY HEADLINES European Closes: Euro Stoxx 50 -0.92% at 6,147, Dax 40 -1.24% at 25,304, FTSE 100 -1.08% at 10,765, CAC 40 -1.11% at 7,868, FTSE MIB -1.55% at 49,086, IBEX 35 -1.49% at 19,039, PSI -0.78% at 9,394, SMI -0.21% at 14,361, AEX -0.13% at 1,141. LATAM NOTABLE HEADLINES Brazil's Bolsonaro and Lula tied in the latest Presidential runoff poll, Bloomberg reported. DATA RECAP Brazilian IGP-10 Inflation (Oct MM) 1.76% vs. Exp. 1.44% (Prev. 1.47%).