[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude futures fall as Trump waives Russian energy sanctions, while Russia-Ukraine strikes continue

Crude futures are softer to start the week, after Trump waived certain sanctions and restrictions on Russian energy and signalled progress towards ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Furthermore, the WSJ reported that Russian President Putin proposed a Trump-Xi-Putin meeting to discuss the Ukraine war; however, China’s Foreign Ministry did not share any information regarding the potential meeting. Despite this positive signalling by Trump, Russia and Ukraine launched large-scale attacks, with energy infrastructure being the main targets. WTI and Brent currently trade at the lower end of their USD 96.72-99.24/bbl and USD 106.82-109.65/bbl range, respectively. On the US-Iran front, Pakistan’s army chief Munir may visit Tehran this week, while the IRGC said two tankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Dutch TTF has risen to its highest level since 2022, currently trading in a EUR 87.66-89.32/MWh range. Precious metals are relatively contained, with spot gold oscillating in a USD 4155-4190/oz band. The yellow metal has held above the USD 4100/oz handle since the selloff at the start of September, while the USD 4k/oz mark has held firm as its lowest point since the start of the Iran conflict. 3M LME Copper found a bid at the start of the Asian session, reaching a peak of USD 14.48k/t, amid strong Chinese activity data, before falling to a low of USD 14.35k/t amid the broader risk-off tone.