Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 26th October 2026

US President Trump said it was “getting to be decision time” on whether to strike a deal with Tehran or resume attacks. An Iranian source posted on Telegram that an IRGC launcher in Sirik was hit by a missile from an unknown fighter jet minutes after firing a missile towards the Strait of Hormuz. Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are expected to meet with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday to discuss regional coordination; Brent Jan'27 -1.6%. European bourses are broadly in the green, with strength seen in the CAC 40 after France escapes a Moody's downgrade.  DXY is steady, EUR holds steady, whilst the JPY is the slight laggard.  Fixed gloomy, but OATs are anything but moody.  Looking ahead, highlights include Dallas Fed Manufacturing and Chicago Fed National Activity, Supply from the US, US Treasury Buyback (Liquidity Support; 20Y-30Y). Earnings from Verizon. UK clocks moved back one hour on Sunday and reverted to GMT, which means the time difference between London and New York will be four hours for the week ahead.  SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6% DAX40 +0.9% Stoxx 600 +0.4% FTSE 100 +0.5% ES Dec'26 +0.4% RTY Dec'26 +0.4% NQ Dec'26 +0.4% YM Dec'26 +0.5% FX DXY +0.1% (101.81) EUR/USD U/C (1.1206) USD/JPY +0.3% (157.34) GBP/USD -0.2% (1.3344) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -1 ticks Bund Dec'26 -24 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.99% German 10yr Yield 3.37% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 -2% Brent Jan'27 -1.6% Spot Gold +0.5% LME Copper +0.1% CRYPTO Bitcoin +0.2% Ethereum +0.2% As of 10:15GMT / 06:15EDT LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include, Dallas Fed Manufacturing and Chicago Fed National Activity, Supply from the US, US Treasury Buyback (Liquidity Support; 20Y-30Y). Earnings from Verizon. UK clocks moved back one hour on Sunday and reverted to GMT, which means the time difference between London and New York will be four hours for the week ahead. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.4%) are broadly firmer this morning, following on from a mixed APAC handover. The CAC 40 (+0.9%) is amongst the outperformers, after Moody’s maintained France's credit rating at Aa3 with a Negative Outlook despite recent civil unrest and rising political risks. A decision which comes despite the heightened risk of a downgrade, and hence lifted French-related assets. Over in Spain, the IBEX 35 (-0.5%) is the European underperformer, weighed on by pressure in Telefonica (-7%). The Co. was subject to a downgrade at JPMorgan (Neutral to Underweight), with the firm citing concerns related to its debt structure and its UK JV, VMO2. Moreover, Santander (-4%) shares have fallen following Brazil President Lula's victory in the elections, with investors now worried about the fiscal situation in the region. European sectors hold a strong positive bias. The typical cyclical sectors hold towards the top of the pile, with Travel & Leisure leading, joined closely by Autos. A move facilitated by pressure in the crude complex, which in turn has pushed the Energy sector towards the foot of the pile. There has been a lot of focus on some healthcare names this morning; AstraZeneca (+1%, SAFFRON Phase III trial showed statistically significant improvement in progression-free survival vs chemotherapy), Bayer (+3.3%, Phase III DASL-HiCaP trial showed a statistically significant 58% reduction in the risk of metastasis vs the placebo), Novartis (-0.3%, Remibrutinib met its primary endpoint but fell short of analyst expectations). Other key movers: Man Group (+4.7%, Co. expands partnership with Meiji Yasuda), Computacenter (+8%, lifts profit forecast), Plus500 (+4%, raises FY26 outlook after reporting solid Q3 growth). US equity futures (ES +0.4%, NQ +0.4%, RTY +0.4%) are all trading with modest gains this morning. The complex has been gradually moving higher in early trade, benefiting from the pressure seen in oil prices throughout the morning. There was no real driver for the action, but with markets potentially focusing on a delegation meeting (including Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan) in Tehran on Monday. FX G10s are broadly softer against a firmer USD. The JPY underperforms, joined closely by the GBP. The EUR holds up relatively well, after France avoided a ratings downgrade from Moody's on Friday. DXY softened in Asia as oil prices pulled back and yields eased, but has gradually ground higher since, and currently sits at the top end of a 101.58 to 101.82 range ahead of Friday and Thursday’s peaks at 101.85 and 101.88 respectively. The US data docket is light for the day (Dallas Fed Manufacturing, Chicago Fed National Activity), so attention turns to Wednesday's FOMC, where money markets lean heavily towards a hold, alongside a busy week of tech earnings and any US-Iran developments. In geopolitics, President Trump said he is nearing a decision on whether to strike a deal with Iran or resume military strikes. Meanwhile, Barclays' month-end model points to weak USD buying vs most majors, with no directional bias against EUR or JPY. GBP was the initial laggard this morning, but now off worst levels and remains towards the bottom of the G10 pile. Cable trades at the bottom end of a 1.3344-1.3388 range after finding resistance at the 100 DMA (1.3387), with no clear driver for the weakness apart from a myriad of UK budget leaks over the weekend and relative aforementioned EUR resilience. Focus this week is on Wednesday's Autumn Budget, where Chancellor Healey is expected to confirm a 3.9% rise in the full state pension, while it was also reported over the weekend that PM Burnham opened the door to Britain readopting the EU's free-movement rules. EUR/USD trades in a tight 1.1202-1.1227 range, holding just above the 1.12 mark, where EUR 1.2bln of options roll off at today's NY cut. Moody's maintained France's Aa3 rating with a negative outlook on Friday, defying some expectations of a downgrade, while France largely avoided a repeat of the looting seen during previous protests on Saturday; further protests are planned for 31st October and 5th November. The ECB policy decision is due on Thursday. USD/JPY is firmer and holds towards the upper end of a 156.65-157.34 range, with USD 3.1bln of options at 158.00 rolling off at today's NY cut. The BoJ is widely expected to keep rates on hold when it concludes its two-day meeting on Friday. The Antipodeans are softer; NZD/USD trades towards the bottom end of a 0.5685-0.5707 range, while AUD/USD holds within a 0.7022-0.7040 band. Both are in focus this week, with the RBNZ policy decision on Wednesday and Australian CPI also due Wednesday. CFTC Positioning (w/e 20th Oct): USD net long; EUR net short; JPY net long; GBP net short; AUD net short; NZD net short; CAD net short; CHF net short. Brazil's Electoral Authority confirmed that Brazil's Lula was re-elected president in the runoff vote, while Bolsonaro said extending voting hours was unacceptable, and it is impossible to acknowledge election results. Furthermore, Bolsonaro said they will ask that the election be annulled. PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7162 vs exp. 6.6691 (prev. 6.7180). FIXED INCOME A slightly mixed start to the week for fixed income. Initial strength was a function of the energy pullback; however, benchmarks remain at elevated levels given the punchy rhetoric, and Dutch TTF has climbed significantly this morning, bringing the EUR 100/MWh mark into view. USTs were firmer by around five ticks early doors, at a 106-10+ peak, shy of last week’s highs at 106-14+ and 106-16+ from Friday and Thursday respectively. This week is, of course, dominated by the Fed on Wednesday. Ahead of that, geopolitics will continue to influence, and by extension the recent growth/inflation discourse will feature, before PCE post-Fed. OATs opened higher by around 70 ticks, after Moody’s maintained the rating, an Aa3, Outlook Negative rating that is one notch higher than both S&P and Fitch’s assessment of France. The hold was broadly on the assumption that a deficit-reducing budget will at some point be adopted. Given the challenging political and deteriorating fiscal backdrop in France, this was perhaps a stay of execution rather than a change in the narrative; next, we have S&P on November 27th. Upside that has largely held for OATs, and by extension the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has narrowed by almost 8bps today, after narrowing a similar amount on Friday, taking it to a 158bps low, vs Friday’s 176bps recent peak. However, MTD, it remains wider by over 30bps. Bunds in-fitting with USTs directionally, saw a slightly larger pullback in early hours and is hit by around 30 ticks at the time of writing, a function of the mentioned gas strength and as we look to this week’s ECB, with Moody’s hold on France removing one of the arguments for a, relatively speaking, more-dovish confab. Currently, at a 121.87 low. Finally, Gilts opened with very modest gains, before succumbing to the regional pressure and slipping by around 10 ticks. However, Gilt action is comparably a touch more contained, as focus remains firmly on the budget, while weekend press updates on that and UK PM Burnham's approach to the EU were unsurprising, but still a net-supportive factor for the benchmark. Schneider Electric (SU FP) to sell EUR-denominated notes in a six parter. COMMODITIES Crude benchmarks are lower by over 1.5% this morning, extending on the pullback seen in the Asia-Pac session. WTI Dec'26 currently holds at the bottom end of a USD 100.60-102.63/bbl range, whilst Brent Jan'27 trades at the lower end of a USD 109.22-110.98/bbl band. However, both benchmarks remain comfortably within Friday's broad ranges (WTI: USD 98.84-103.92/bbl; Brent: USD 108.33-112.45/bbl), when crude surged and both benchmarks closed near the top of their ranges. The gradual pressure in the crude complex lacks a clear driver, but markets may be focusing on a meeting in Tehran on Monday between senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan and their Iranian counterparts, to discuss regional coordination. On the diplomatic front, Iran's FM Araghchi proposed a 7-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, subject to conditions, while US President Trump said he is nearing a decision on whether to negotiate a deal with Iran or resume military strikes. The pullback in crude has helped lift broader sentiment across equities this morning. Dutch TTF bucks the trend and is firmer by c. 3%, holding towards the upper end of a EUR 94.25-97.64/MWh range. The contract has climbed steadily throughout the Asia-Pac session and into the European morning, although it has eased slightly from its session peak. There has been no clear headline catalyst for the move, although colder weather forecasts have been cited as supportive, while the European gas benchmark remains underpinned by ongoing LNG disruptions and low EU storage levels heading into the winter period. Elsewhere, Iran's President is set to visit Russia today to attend the gas exporting countries' summit, while Goldman Sachs last week said it still sees upside risks to its year-end TTF forecast of EUR 70/MWh. Across the Atlantic, Henry Hub futures are a touch lower, within a USD 2.932-3.026/MMBtu range. Precious metals are firmer, with spot gold back above the USD 4k/oz mark and holding at the upper end of a USD 3,978-4,022/oz range, after trading sideways just beneath that level overnight, as participants await this week's central bank announcements, including the FOMC on Wednesday. Spot silver trades within a USD 53.62-54.41/oz band. 3M LME Copper is little changed and sits at the top end of a USD 14,247.78-14,361.18/t range. US CENTCOM said it helped Gulf states export more than 1.5bln bbls of oil since the summer. Libya reopened the oil pipeline from the Hamada and Tahara oilfields to Zawiya. It was also reported that Libya's NOC reopened the Brega refinery following its closure for maintenance. United Arab Emirates closed additional beaches amid concerns over environmental and health impacts following an oil spill in the Persian Gulf. IEA chief Birol said he doesn't see any credible pathway for energy markets to return to pre-Iran war levels in 2027. Iranian President is to visit Russia today to attend the gas exporting countries' summit, Tasnim reported. TRADE/TARIFFS EU reportedly plans to hit China with import curbs on chemicals and furniture, Bloomberg TV reported; to present new curbs on China trade as early as Q1'27. US President Trump defended his decision to impose tariffs during a campaign rally in Georgia, claiming they had made the US richer. He announced that Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) had agreed to build a new USD 4.2bln Audi plant in the state. Trump added that his administration had “many other announcements” to make following the announcement of Volkswagen AG's plans to build the factory. US President Trump said they are getting close to a deal with Canada and that a deal could come before the elections. White House economic adviser Hassett said US trade negotiations with Canada had picked up and were “gathering steam”, according to an interview with Fox News. China said it “firmly opposes” a US Treasury proposal to expand the scope and severity of restrictions on US investment in China, describing the measures as discriminatory and “a typical example of an overly broad application of national security concerns”. China's MOFCOM added that the proposed restrictions ran counter to the “important consensus” reached by the two countries' presidents and would harm bilateral economic and trade cooperation, as well as US companies' interests, while it added that Beijing will closely monitor developments and reserves the right to take corresponding measures. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES UK Chancellor Healey will use his budget this week to protect pensioners and those saving for their retirement as he announces plans to shield nearly one million people from paying income tax, according to The Times. Healey is expected to confirm on Wednesday that the full state pension will rise by GBP 489 to GBP 13,036, and that will be equivalent to a 3.9% rise. UK Chancellor Healey will use the upcoming budget to give mayors in England additional funding and powers, including a GBP 1.5bln borrowing facility, as part of plans to shift economic decision-making away from Westminster. UK pledged GBP 100mln for an AI Biosecurity Lab supported by OpenAI, Anthropic and Google DeepMind, as part of efforts to improve the government's ability to understand and address risks posed by the technology. UK PM Burnham said he is "not proposing re-joining the EU in this parliament", Sky's McDaid reported; but would like to re-join at some point in his lifetime. UK PM Burnham rules out an early election; said, "I don’t think people want another backward looking squabble. They want me to get on with the job", The Times reported. UK PM Burnham opened the door to Britain readopting the EU's free-movement rules, according to The Sunday Times. It was separately reported that Burnham called for an 'honest discussion' on the free movement of people, which has sparked a furious debate over Britain readopting EU free movement rules, but rejected the idea that the UK could join the euro or the passport-free Schengen travel area, according to FT. UK PM's office said the UK is to spend an additional GBP 432mln to help curb homelessness. Protests against the war and rising living costs took place in major Italian cities on Saturday, with some incidents of violence following recent unrest across the country. France avoided a repeat of large-scale violence and looting during Saturday's protests, which involved around 110K people in a largely peaceful demonstration confined to the outskirts of Paris and another 300K nationwide. The CGT union put the total at 800K. However, isolated clashes were reported in several cities, with police using tear gas and water cannons. France's National Rally reelected Bardella as party president in Orléans on Saturday with 98.98% of the vote, with no opposing candidate, while National Rally's Le Pen vowed a national ‘renewal’ in a campaign launch. Moody's maintained France's credit rating at Aa3 with a Negative Outlook despite recent civil unrest and rising political risks, while Scope reaffirmed Italy's rating at BBB+ with a Positive Outlook. NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP German Ifo Expectations (Oct) 91.6 vs. Exp. 90 (Prev. 90.4). German Ifo Current Conditions (Oct) 88.8 vs. Exp. 89.9 (Prev. 89.5). German Ifo Business Climate (Oct) 90.2 vs. Exp. 90 (Prev. 89.9). Spanish PPI (Sep YY) 18.3% (Prev. 13.2%). Swedish PPI (Sep MM) 3.4% (Prev. 0.9%). Swedish PPI (Sep YY) 11.2% (Prev. 6.8%). CENTRAL BANKS RBA's Brad Jones said in panel participation at AFR Super and Wealth Summit that super tailwinds will become headwinds as members deaccumulate and that unexpected super early release poses financial stability risk. AI valuations are punchy with increasing debt and vendor financing. Geopolitical fragmentation poses new financial system risks. PBoC is to set up bond market NBFI swap facility to maintain bond market stability. Swiss Weekly Sight Deposits (w/e Oct 23) Total: 434.743bln (prev. 457.01bln); Domestic 434.743bln (prev. 435.36bln). NOTABLE US HEADLINES US President Trump posted "...Libya cannot remain a corridor for illegal migration, and this must end now. The United States remains firmly committed to strengthening our bilateral relationship". GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE US President Trump said US-Russia-Ukraine three-way talks are to take place very soon and that he believes both sides want a deal. Ukrainian President Zelensky said the US, Russia and Ukraine plan trilateral technical talks in November, while he stated that Kyiv will not trade anything in exchange but is willing to hold talks and that territorial issues must be handled at the leaders' level, although other matters can be handled by technical working groups. Russia's Defence Ministry said Russian forces hit a cargo vessel in the Black Sea. EU leaders are preparing to come to a deal on around EUR 45bln of support for Ukraine by end-2026, Politico reported citing sources; as a loan, guaranteed by the existing EU budget. US-IRAN US President Trump said it was “getting to be decision time” on whether to strike a deal with Tehran or resume attacks, stating, “I have a decision to make: Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal? That’s all,” according to an interview with Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures. US President Trump reiterated on Sunday that the Iran conflict will be ending soon one way or another, while he said higher oil prices are a small price to pay for preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and that there won't be a strike on Iran 'today'. US President Trump's administration's senior intelligence official warned in a memo that Iran had ramped up efforts to target US personnel, adding that lethal plots by Tehran against US citizens had reached "advanced stages". US ordered the departure of diplomatic personnel and adjusted staffing at embassies across the Middle East due to Iranian efforts to target Americans and threats from Houthi militants in Yemen, according to a US official. US official said that they have put together an expanded list of bombing targets in Iran, which include energy and economic infrastructure, while it was also reported that Israeli PM Netanyahu could order a strike on Iran even if he loses the election, according to The New York Times. Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are expected to meet with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday to discuss regional coordination, according to Sabereen News. US forces in the Middle East are reportedly prepared to launch major strikes against Iran within 96 hours of US President Trump's approval, CNN reported. US officials familiar with military planning say it is a question of when, not if, Trump orders renewed strikes against Iran; action likely to be after midterms. "Officials say that Trump has not made up his mind on what he will do after the midterms but that he appears to be leaning toward ordering major action". Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi proposes a 7-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with conditions, while he stated that US military aggression and sanctions are key obstacles, adds energy cooperation with Russia boosts security and exports. Iranian Foreign Minister said the Qatari delegation's visit to Iran is within the context of talks in the region. Adds that, US sanctions will impact on regional ties. Consultations are continuously underway with Pakistan to resolve technical problems more quickly. Iran's FM spokesperson Baghaei, in response to the claim of a negotiation proposal from the Europeans, said "apart from a statement emphasizing the importance of negotiations, we did not see any specific proposal from the Europeans". Iran's FM spokesperson said "Iran has never closed the window of diplomacy and has been steadfast in implementing international agreements, but the history of America's reneging on commitments cannot be ignored". Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said "fundamental and strategic changes" in the region mean "nothing will be the same" after the 40‑day war, including management of the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that Tehran's policies will not change "whether war breaks out or not" and warned against a military attack on Iran. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei criticised US Secretary of State Rubio's accusations of piracy against Iran and stated that the US takes pride in piracy itself. Iranian officials warned their targets will include US diplomats if the US returns to war, according to NYT. Iran's head of the Parliament's Civil Engineering Commission said that the Strait of Hormuz is completely under Iran's control, adding that they are increasing speed of oil price growth in the coming days. Iran is reportedly launching missiles at ships, according to Open Source Intel. Iranian activist on Telegram posted an IRGC launcher in Sirik was hit by a missile from an unknown fighter jet minutes after firing a missile towards the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said the outcome of Israel's elections does not matter to Tehran. Israeli Defence Minister Katz denies plans to attack Iran before the elections, N12 reporters say, citing sources. Israeli PM Netanyahu told Israel's Channel 14 that they will strike Iran again. In relevant news, Israeli PM Netanyahu and IDF Chief Zamir reportedly clashed over a proposed military action against Iran as Netanyahu wanted to strike Iran before the elections, while Zamir requested further discussions and warned of escalation just two days before Israel’s election, according to Channel 12. SAUDI-HOUTHI Houthis say they targeted Saudi Arabia's East-West crude oil pumping stations with drones and also attacked King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, although there is no immediate confirmation from Saudi Arabia. Houthi media outlets report airstrikes targeting locations in Sanaa, Yemen. Saudi-led coalition said it carried out military operation against Houthi targets in Yemen to neutralise sources of threats, while operation destroyed five ballistic missile storage facilities and four missile launch platforms in Houthi-controlled areas. Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed two missile launchers in Yemen's Sanaa and that one had targeted Riyadh. "A fire broke out at the Rabigh refinery (400k BPD) in Saudi Arabia after the Yemeni armed forces targeted the refinery", Sabereen News. OTHERS North Korea said it sent a letter to the UN Security Council saying South Korea fabricated mine explosion incidents to delay and impede North Korea's border fortification, according to KCNA. South Korea's provocation, such as opening fire on North Korean service personnel, is a violation of the UN Charter. CRYPTO Bitcoin is a touch firmer this morning and trades just above the USD 80k mark; Ethereum is also mildly stronger, and sits around USD 2.3k. APAC TRADE APAC stocks were mixed with a mostly negative bias following last week's surge in oil and amid ongoing geopolitical risks, while participants await this week's tech earnings and several major central bank rate decisions. ASX 200 mildly outperformed, with the index kept afloat as strength in the local real estate, tech and the commodity-related sectors offset the losses in defensives, telecoms and financials. Nikkei 225 was lower amid tech headwinds and with SoftBank choppy after reports that its CEO Son is discussing a USD 50bln investment plan in Malaysia focused on AI and data centres. KOSPI retreated with some indecision seen in the tech heavyweights ahead of their Q3 earnings results this week, while SK Hynix clarified it is considering various shareholder‑return options, but added that nothing was decided and it will unveil additional plans after its Q3 earnings announcement, in response to reports that it plans a KRW 16.0tln special dividend from gains on its Kioxia investment. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with price action range-bound amid several earnings releases, while trade frictions lingered with China firmly opposing a US Treasury proposal to expand the scope and severity of restrictions on US investment in China. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES Japan's Top Automobile Industry Union Group Chief said "we look beyond inflation-linked pay hikes for 2027 labour talks". China's fifth plenum gets underway, as scheduled, which is a closed-door convention involving officials from the Communist Party's Central Committee, while President Xi delivers the Work Report at the plenum, according to CCTV. Japanese PM Takaichi said she wants results on tax cut and oil diversification bills. NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP Japanese Coincident Index Final (Aug) 118.8 (Prev. 120.6). Japanese Leading Economic Index Final (Aug) 118.0 vs. Exp. 118.0 (Prev. 117.6).