Newsquawk Daily European Opening News - 7th October 2026

US President Trump reiterated that millions of barrels of oil have been delivered over the last couple of days, adding that oil prices will come way down. However, reports suggest that a ship was attacked off Oman’s Musandam coast; separate sources indicated that several missiles were launched towards the Strait of Hormuz. APAC stocks were mostly negative amidst a rebound in energy and yields; European equity futures are indicative of a lower open. DXY is a touch firmer, with Fed’s Daly the latest to keep the door open for further tightening this year; G10s are broadly lower against the USD. Crude benchmarks gained overnight amidst continued attacks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF Prelim. (Sep), NBP Policy Announcement (Oct), FOMC Minutes (Sep), Speakers including Fed's Logan, ECB's Cipollone & Vujcic, Supply from UK, Germany & the US. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Nikkei 225 -0.6% ASX 200 -0.1% Hang Seng -0.7% Shanghai Comp +0.3% Euro Stoxx 50 Dec'26 -0.4% DAX Dec'26 -0.6% ES Dec'26 U/C NQ Dec'26 -0.1% FX DXY +0.2% (102.08) EUR/USD -0.3% (1.1230) USD/JPY +0.2% (158.41) GBP/USD -0.2% (1.3248) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -8 ticks Bund Dec'26 -35 ticks US 10yr Yield 5.31% German 10yr Yield 3.48% ENERGY & METALS WTI Nov'26 +0.8% Brent Dec'26 +1% Spot Gold -0.8% LME Copper -0.2% CRYPTO Bitcoin -1.6% Ethereum -3.2% As of 06:20BST/01:20EDT LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include Swedish CPIF Prelim. (Sep), NBP Policy Announcement (Oct), FOMC Minutes (Sep), Speakers including Fed's Logan, ECB's Cipollone & Vujcic, Supply from UK, Germany & the US. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump said Iran is doing very poorly and stated regarding the Strait of Hormuz that millions of barrels of oil have been delivered just over the last couple of days, while he added that prices are now coming way down and oil will be going way down as soon as the war is over, which will be soon. US President Trump said they have to finish up regarding Iran and that the question is how, while he added that we will soon find out how they will finish up Iran and stated that Iran's drone-making capacity will soon be gone. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Iran hasn't loaded a single barrel of crude onto a vessel since August 25th. Iran's Persian Gulf Shipping Agency added over a dozen vessels to its blacklist amid Strait of Hormuz rules. Several missiles were launched towards the Strait of Hormuz, according to Naya. An explosion was heard on Qeshm Island, Iran, from the sea, according to IRNA. A ship was attacked off Oman's Musandam coast, according to Fars. Oman said it carried out a medical evacuation for 10 crew members of a Panama-flagged commercial vessel that was attacked northeast of Lima. Emirati tanker DRAGON FORTUNE was unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz today despite a US escort. The ship changed course after receiving a warning, and its Automatic Identification System was also turned on. Saudi‑led coalition said it intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile targeting Khamis Mushait, while explosions were reported in Yemen's capital Sanaa. Yemen's Houthi forces said they used drones to attack King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, while they targeted Abha Airport and Khamis Mushait using missiles and drones. Yemeni Houthis reportedly now have the capability to close all Saudi airports and ports, according to Al Mayadeen citing a Houthi political bureau member, who added that they believe it is unlikely Turkey and Pakistan will directly enter the Yemeni war. A Houthi official posted a video of a fire at a facility, stating that Aramco oil facilities belonging to Saudi Arabia in Rabigh are pleading with Trump after having been afflicted. An Asharq reporter posted that Syria may join the war in Yemen, with the idea said to be under discussion, citing multiple sources, although no final decision has been made; it follows Syria's President visiting Saudi Arabia. Israel conducted artillery shelling on areas in Syria's Deraa province, while it was separately reported that Israel plans to assassinate Hezbollah Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem, according to ILNA reports. US TRADE EQUITIES US stocks gained and most indices closed in the green with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq printing fresh record highs amid risk-on trade as global yields moved lower, although the small-cap Russell 2000 lagged and finished in the red. Given the sentiment, all sectors aside from Health Care were higher, with Utilities and Consumer Discretionary outperforming as the former was buoyed by Constellation Energy surging after it entered into a power deal with Google. SPX +0.58% at 7,819, NDX +0.48% at 31,224, DJI +0.49% at 51,526, RUT -0.59% at 2,830. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE China and EU trade officials reportedly held a preparatory video meeting on Tuesday. NOTABLE HEADLINES Fed's Daly (2027 voter) told Axios that she was very pleased and very supportive of the rate hike in September, while she added that whether more will be needed depends on the same set of conditions and noted that if shocks from tariffs, oil prices from the Middle East conflict and AI prove to be conventional shocks that are temporary, then they may not need more, which she still has some probability on. However, she also stated that if the shocks compound each other or last longer than forecast, including through a second round of tariff negotiations resulting in more tariffs, that would extend the period over which the shocks play out. Daly also stated that some companies are preparing for an AI-fueled chip squeeze that could push up prices far beyond the data centre boom alone, as well as noted that effects of AI, tariffs and higher energy costs could last longer than expected or compound each other, keeping inflation elevated and requiring more tightening. Fed's Schmid (2028 voter) said the labour force remains in a good place, adding that there is still a way to go in beating inflation and that credibility is at stake in the fight against inflation. US President Trump said they have a very strong dollar because they are doing well and that a strong dollar is good in many ways, but also stated that they can make a case that a strong dollar slows things down. Trump said he thinks they are going to do very well in the midterms and that his rallies are changing it around. APAC TRADE EQUITIES APAC stocks were mostly negative, with the region failing to take inspiration from the gains on Wall St, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq printed fresh all-time highs, while the sentiment soured overnight amid a rebound in oil and yields. ASX 200 struggled for direction and was flat for the session in the absence of any major catalysts and tier-1 data. Nikkei 225 retreated with investors booking profits following the recent rally in the index, which just about held on to the 70,000 status, with participants also reflecting on Labour Cash Earnings data, which decelerated but still topped forecasts. Elsewhere, there was pressure seen in brewers including Asahi on reports that Japan's FTC is probing Japan's four major breweries over suspected price fixing. KOSPI underperformed in choppy trade with the index weighed on by weakness in SK Hynix, while Samsung Electronics was indecisive ahead of its preliminary earnings results tomorrow. Hang Seng conformed to the downbeat mood amid tech-related weakness and continued absence of mainland participants, who will be returning from the week-long holiday closure tomorrow. US equity futures traded range-bound and took a breather after the fresh record highs on Wall St. European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.6% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Tuesday. FX DXY strengthened overnight alongside the rebound in yields and higher oil prices, while there were recent comments from Fed officials, in which Daly stated that she was very pleased and very supportive of the rate hike in September, as well as kept the door open on whether more will be needed. Furthermore, Schmid said there is still a way to go in beating inflation and that the central bank's credibility is at stake in the fight against inflation, while participants look ahead to the looming FOMC Minutes. EUR/USD faded some of the prior day's gains as the dollar recovered, while the latest rhetoric from ECB officials provided little to shift the dial. The single currency was also unaffected by reports that the French Government is willing to bypass parliament to pass billions in cuts. GBP/USD pulled back following its recent advances, with price action largely driven by the dollar and US yields, as catalysts for the UK remained light. Nonetheless, participants continue to look for clues on the Budget announcement later this month, with Chancellor Healey said to consider a major intervention to cut energy bills for poorer households. USD/JPY gained a firmer footing above the 158.00 level amid a rebound in the buck and higher US yields, while Labour Cash Earnings data from Japan slowed from the previous, but still topped forecasts. Antipodeans were contained with mild headwinds amid the negative mood and lack of currency-moving data. FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures pulled back as yields rebounded alongside the upside in oil and with participants awaiting the FOMC Minutes, while there were recent Fed comments in which Daly voiced strong support for the rate hike in September and kept the door open to further increases. Elsewhere, Schmid said there is still a way to go in beating inflation and that credibility is at stake in the fight against inflation. Bund futures retreated beneath the prior day's trough as the bounce in energy prices stoked inflationary pressures and with demand also constrained ahead of today's Bund issuance. 10yr JGB futures pared opening gains and returned to relatively flat territory following the latest Labour Cash Earnings data from Japan, which showed a deceleration, but still printed firmer-than-expected. COMMODITIES Crude futures climbed overnight with WTI crude returning to above the USD 90/bbl level amid continued attacks between Saudi Arabia and Yemeni Houthis, although gains were capped after the prior day's two-way trade amid supply-related headlines including comments from the Saudi Energy Minister that 5.8mln BPD is currently flowing through the East-West pipeline and that operations had resumed around five days after it was hit. US Weekly Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.1mln (prev. +1.0mln), Gasoline -1.4mln (prev. +3.0mln), Distillate +0.5mln (prev. -0.3mln), Cushing +0.9mln. US EIA STEO sees 2026 world oil demand at 102.4mln BPD (prev. 102.6mln BPD) and 2027 at 104.6mln BPD (prev. 105mln BPD) while it sees world oil production in 2026 at 101.1mln BPD (prev. 100.6mln BPD) and in 2027 at 109.6mln BPD (prev. 109.9mln BPD). US President Trump said he was considering suspending the federal tax on petrol as the White House races to tackle a fuel price crisis ahead of November’s midterm elections, according to FT. Shell (SHEL LN) is evacuating non-essential workers from Stones, Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito and Appomattox assets in the US Gulf, while Chevron (CVX) does not expect the approaching storm to affect offshore operations. Venezuela's Cardon refinery (310k BPD) was halted due to a fire. Spot gold trickled lower as the dollar strengthened and yields rebounded alongside oil. Copper futures trickled lower amid the mostly negative risk sentiment in Asia and with Chinese buyers still absent from the market. Chile's government estimates the 2026 average copper price at USD 6.15/lb and 2027 at USD 5.65/lb. US Agriculture Secretary Collins said he will make a big announcement on America's "seed supply". CRYPTO Bitcoin was pressured overnight as risk sentiment soured, with prices briefly dipping beneath USD 84,000. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES BoJ Board Member Sato said she agrees on the need for a gradual adjustment to interest rates and does not think there should be a pre-set pace of rate hikes, while she added the BoJ must decide monetary policy independently in a way that is consistent with the administration's proactive fiscal policy. Sato also noted risks to the price outlook are skewed to the upside due to rising oil costs from the Middle East conflict, according to Kyodo. DATA RECAP Japanese Average Cash Earnings (Aug YY) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 4.3%) GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE Ukrainian President Zelensky said updated intelligence shows Russia is preparing a "massive attack", while he added that much depends on the reaction of world leaders who have the defensive capabilities Ukraine needs. Russian Defence Ministry reported a strike on a fuel tanker in the Ukrainian port of Yuzhny. Russia's Kremlin said Iran's President will take part in the Russia-led summit of ex-Soviet leaders in Turkmenistan on Friday and will meet with Russian President Putin. Kremlin said a bilateral meeting between Putin and Chinese President Xi will take place at the APEC summit, while it also stated that a trilateral meeting between Putin, Trump and Xi at the APEC Summit in China in November is an interesting idea. EU envoys are expected to approve major new Russia sanctions on Wednesday. US President Trump said the Russia-Ukraine war is getting closer to ending, while he had a call scheduled with Russian President Putin regarding the plague and said he will probably be able to report on the pneumonic plague incident in Russia on Wednesday. OTHER North Korea warned South Korea not to cross the border by even a millimetre. It was separately reported that North Korea said the US should think twice before opposing China regarding Taiwan, according to KCNA. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK Chancellor Healey is considering a major intervention to cut energy bills for poorer households at this month’s budget, according to The Guardian. France's government is willing to bypass parliament to pass billions in cuts, according to WSJ.