Fitch, on the UK: potential growth to remain below 1.5%, average forecast of 1.4% between 2026-2030, unchanged vs August 2025's report

United Kingdom potential growth is expected to stay subdued, constrained by chronically low investment and slowing labour supply growth. Productivity should improve modestly, with limited near-term AI impact, leaving fiscal and debt dynamics sensitive to weak growth. The spread of artificial intelligence technology presents an upside to both capital deepening and TFP growth, though they do not expect it to transform the growth outlook over our forecast horizon to 2030. “The UK investment rate has been substantially below that of other major economies. Closing this gap immediately and durably could boost UK potential growth towards 2%, all else equal. However, this would be hard to achieve and we consider this unlikely,” says Jessica Hinds, Director, Economics at Fitch.