Fed's Logan says that it is clear that the Fed needs at least two more 25bps rate hikes; more rapid rate hikes possibly needed this winter
ORIGINAL · NewsquawkFed's Logan says that it is clear that the Fed needs at least two more 25bps rate hikes; more rapid rate hikes possibly needed this winterRead originalHide original
Inflation: Price pressures extend beyond tariffs, and the broad trend is likely to persist. Inflation is trending meaningfully above the 2% target. Higher-than-expected consumer price inflation raises concerns that personal consumption expenditures inflation could rise. Economy: Economic growth is strong, consumer spending is solid and business spending is robust. Labour Market: The labour market is balanced and even tightening slightly. Monetary Policy: Accommodative monetary policy is adding to inflationary pressures, with data suggesting the real Fed funds rate is 78 basis points. The Fed policy rate is at least 50 basis points below a modestly restrictive level. Higher bond-market rates signal that monetary policy has more work to do, rather than providing an independent tailwind for economic activity. It would make sense to pause after two more rate hikes and assess whether further action is appropriate. Gradually adjusting monetary policy can reduce the risk of economic activity deteriorating more sharply than necessary. It is important to promptly achieve balance in the outlook and risks for inflation and employment. It may be possible to raise interest rates more rapidly this winter than the US central bank has done so far. The Fed clearly needs at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases.
The November 10 headline reports two more hikes and possibly faster action this winter. An October 31 Reuters report also records Logan’s call for two increases, then a pause to assess developments.
News detail
Inflation: Price pressures extend beyond tariffs, and the broad trend is likely to persist. Inflation is trending meaningfully above the 2% target. Higher-than-expected consumer price inflation raises concerns that personal consumption expenditures inflation could rise. Economy: Economic growth is strong, consumer spending is solid and business spending is robust. Labour Market: The labour market is balanced and even tightening slightly. Monetary Policy: Accommodative monetary policy is adding to inflationary pressures, with data suggesting the real Fed funds rate is 78 basis points. The Fed policy rate is at least 50 basis points below a modestly restrictive level. Higher bond-market rates signal that monetary policy has more work to do, rather than providing an independent tailwind for economic activity. It would make sense to pause after two more rate hikes and assess whether further action is appropriate. Gradually adjusting monetary policy can reduce the risk of economic activity deteriorating more sharply than necessary. It is important to promptly achieve balance in the outlook and risks for inflation and employment. It may be possible to raise interest rates more rapidly this winter than the US central bank has done so far. The Fed clearly needs at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases.
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