PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes: Bowman, Barr, Goolsbee, Musalem, Williams, Waller

16:00BST/11:00EDT: Fed’s Bowman (voter) will deliver opening remarks. Speaking on Monday, Bowman avoided comments on monetary policy and the economic outlook. Speaking in mid-September, Bowman said Fed supervisors should have known about SVB’s vulnerabilities as early as March 2022, more than a year before the bank’s failure, with delays not attributable to earlier deregulatory efforts. She attributed inaction to a culture of risk aversion among supervisors, compounded by unclear decision rights, and said the Fed will finalise stress test reforms in the coming weeks to improve transparency and reduce capital requirement volatility. Going forward, the Fed will average a bank’s last two stress tests when assigning its stress capital buffer. 17:40BST/12:40EDT: Fed’s Barr (voter) will comment on monpol/outlook. Speaking last week, Barr said further rate hikes are likely needed to ensure a timely return to the 2% inflation target, with inflation not clearly trending towards that goal, while economic growth remains strong, and the labour market is solid. He said the Fed was out of position, and made an adjustment to rates in the right direction, as it needed to recalibrate policy to reflect increased risks to achieving 2% inflation. 18:00BST/13:00EDT: Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) will participate in a Q&A. Speaking last week, Goolsbee said the Fed cannot ignore repeated and persistent supply shocks, warning the response will not be painless, as the only way back in such environments is “the hard way.” He said the Fed’s median projection for one additional rate increase may not be enough if demand overheating is also driving inflation. 18:30BST/13:30EDT: Fed’s Musalem (2028 voter) will give comments on the outlook. Speaking last week, Musalem said the Fed will likely need to hike rates further to lower inflation driven by strong demand and supply shocks, favouring earlier and incremental action over later, larger moves. He described the current policy rate as still on the accommodative side, adding underlying inflation is running about a percentage point above target and moving in the wrong direction. Musalem said the labour market is not a source of inflation, and tighter policy would not need to come at the cost of higher unemployment. 19:00BST/14:00EDT: Fed’s Williams (voter) will participate in a round table discussion. Speaking last week, Williams said the Fed cannot ignore persistent supply shocks, and should ensure they do not become entrenched, adding tariffs generally do not produce sustained inflation. Williams argued that inflation remains the big challenge for policy, adding it was reasonable to expect another rate hike by year-end. He said the economy has been remarkably resilient, with downside risks to maximum employment having receded, labour market is not a source of inflationary pressure, and noted pretty strong demand from AI. Williams said the time for explicit forward guidance is over, with short-run inflation expectations more encouraging than longer-term ones. 20:00BST/15:00EDT: Fed’s Waller (voter) will give remarks on payments. Given the subject of Waller’s speech, there are risks he will avoid comments on monetary policy. Speaking in early September before the FOMC meeting, Waller said he was leaning towards keeping rates steady if August inflation data shows continued progress, though he would consider a hike if inflation comes in hot; ultimately, he sided with the consensus in endorsing a hike to 3.75-4.00%. He described the previous FFR target of 3.50-3.75% as only slightly restricting demand, adding it may not take much inflation acceleration to prompt him toward tighter policy. Waller said elevated energy prices and tariffs are no longer a significant source of ongoing inflation pressure, though he sees some upside risks from AI-related technology costs.