[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed firms as energy slips and some haven allure comes from the Nvidia/NQ tech pressure

A modestly bullish start for fixed, in a bit of a rebound from the continued pressure seen on Wednesday and as the downside in the energy space on a potential Vance-Rezaei meeting helps. A bit of weakness was seen in the early European morning on the IRGC reporting that two oil-carrying vessels were subject to “explosions” in the Strait of Hormuz, increasing the tally of such incidents from recent sessions. However, this has not changed the narrative with energy still lower, and fixed firmer given that and ongoing AI/Tech concerns around Nvidia, NQ -1.0% at most. USTs firmer by a handful of ticks, just off best in 106-00 to 106-09+ confines, just above Wednesday’s peak but essentially a point away from pre-Waller/CPI trade. Today, the docket is packed with Fed speakers who will all be scrutinised for insight around December and whether they also see 50bps as an option post-CPI. Thereafter, on Friday, PPI will inform the debate and firm up PCE expectations. Bunds and Gilts broadly in-fitting, bid by about 15-20 ticks and in familiar ranges. Specifics are somewhat light. No real move to the UK’s Q3/September GDP series, as while firm services continue to do the heavy lifting, some priors were revised lower. Overall, it factors somewhat in favour of those who support a back-to-back December hike by the BoE.