Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 30th September 2026

US White House is reportedly tempering expectations of an imminent breakthrough between US-Iran, Semafor reported, with a source suggesting that "the bar is being raised very high." The Iranian government spokesperson said Foreign Minister Araghchi presented President Pezeshkian with a US proposal following his New York trip, which included discussions on Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, IRNA reported. UKMTO said that a crude oil tanker was struck on the port side by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on September 29th. US equity futures pare back earlier gains with Micron earnings on the docket after-hours. DXY continues to fall following dovish comments by Fed's Williams; AUD underperforms following cooler-than-expected inflation. Fixed income benchmarks climb; Gilts weighed on by the upside GDP revision. Energy benchmarks rebound slightly from Tuesday's losses (Brent +1.1%). Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI (Sep), US PCE Price Index (Aug/Q2), GDP Final (Q2), Atlanta Fed GDP. Speakers include ECB’s Elderson & Schnabel, Fed’s Barkin, Cook, Goolsbee & Kashkari. The US Treasury buyback announcement (10-20yr; liquidity support). Earnings from Micron, Accenture & McCormick. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2% DAX40 -0.1% Stoxx 600 +0.1% FTSE 100 +0.2% ES Dec'26 +0.1% RTY Dec'26 U/C NQ Dec'26 U/C YM Dec'26 +0.1% FX DXY -0.1% (101.23) EUR/USD +0.1% (1.1357) USD/JPY -0.2% (157.06) GBP/USD +0.4% (1.3278) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +5+ ticks Bund Dec'26 +25 ticks US 10yr Yield 5.226% German 10yr Yield 3.583% ENERGY & METALS WTI Nov'26 +1.0% Brent Dec'26 +1.1% Spot Gold +0.1% LME Copper +0.3% CRYPTO Bitcoin -0.1% Ethereum +0.5% As of 11:05BST / 06:05EDT EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) were initially posting gains across the board, but have since waned off best levels as energy benchmarks move higher. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Retail tops the sector pile, with Utilities and Optimised Personal Care rounding out the sector gainers. To the downside is Media, Energy and Construction. Key movers include: Greggs (+7.5%), guides a modestly improved outcome for 2026; Gerresheimer (+3.1%), Q2 metrics rises Q/Q and points to a stronger H2'26; TomTom (+1.7%), expands its Microsoft (MSFT) collaboration; Commerzbank (-2.7%), downgraded to hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank. US equity futures follow their European counterparts, with focus being on PCE and final Q2 GDP, while Micron is to report earnings after-hours. Analysts are expecting Q4 revenue to grow 354% from a year prior. Focus will be on guidance, with Morgan Stanley analysts shifting the debate from 'how good it can get?' to 'how long can it stay this good?'. Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow Click for the additional news FX Snapshot: G10s are mostly firmer against the USD this morning, which has been hampered following dovish comments from the Fed’s Williams on Tuesday. GBP leads post-GDP, whilst the Aussie lags post-CPI. DXY is a touch lower this morning, and trades within a 101.19 to 101.46 range; ultimately holding within the prior day’s confines. Some of the mild pressure today is facilitated by Fed’s Williams, who suggested that there was less of a need for a hike in October given the recent move in September. The downside in USD is nonetheless capped given he clarified that one more rate hike “late this year” may be appropriate. On the data front, PCE is due today. Analysts expect the PCE headline to rise by 0.4% M/M (prev. 0.2%), and the annual rate is seen ticking up to 3.8% Y/Y (prev. 3.7%); core PCE is expected to rise by 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.2%), with the annual rate of core PCE seen rising to 3.4% Y/Y (prev. 3.3%). Another factor to note, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release updated PCE deflator methodology, applied retroactively through Q1 2021. RBC estimates that core PCE’s annual pace is expected to fall 18bps, which would revise July’s reading to 3.1% from 3.3%. GBP currently holds towards the top of the G10 list, with Cable holding at the upper end of a 1.3223 to 1.3278 range. The strength comes after mild revisions higher in Q2 GDP, though will likely have little impact on the BoE in the near term. Elsewhere, the JPY also performs well, continuing the strength seen overnight. This comes despite poor Japanese Industrial Production data overnight. In the European morning, Nikkei reported that PM Takaichi will vow a nimble response to unexpected market moves. EUR is a little firmer this morning, digesting inflation reports out of France and German states so far. French inflation topped expectations amidst rising energy costs, whilst German state metrics held a slight hawkish skew. Overall, nothing all too surprising for the region, given that ECB members have continued to voice concerns about the inflation outlook; however, a sustained rise in prices, evidence of second-round effects and/or lack of US-Iran progress will likely bring an October rate hike into view. AUD is the laggard this morning, following a weaker-than-expected CPI report; odds of a November hike are priced in at 24%, with a number of key metrics due until then. Westpac analysts reiterated their call for a hold at the November meeting following the inflation figures. FIXED INCOME Fixed is firmer across the board, despite the modest upside in energy and hotter-than-expected inflation out of France and Germany, with Gilts leading as the space gets respite from its recent trajectory, benefitting from UK PM Burnham’s comments and strong GDP data. Specifically, Burnham said he was open to numerous outcomes with regards to UK-EU relations as the current post-Brexit situation is causing more harm than good. Among the options to consider, he stated they could “go all the way”, i.e. rejoin. A remark which, alongside the upwardly revised Q2 GDP series, has led to outperformance across UK assets this morning, with Gilts, GBP and the FTSE 100 the best performer or among the best in their respective market area. However, while welcome, the upside was only c. 50 ticks at best in Gilts and leaves the benchmark only a point at best above the 83.72 contract low, with yields across the curve off highs, but also still in close proximity to such levels. Across the Channel, OATs trade broadly in-line with their German counterpart, with gains of around 40 ticks at the time of writing. However, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has widened further, to over 120bps and the widest since 2012. A move that comes after Tuesday’s debt update and the associated implications of the current plan for the debt-to-GDP ratio vs the EU’s EDP threshold. Bunds themselves experienced a modest pullback off best levels on the German state CPIs, which printed broadly as expected but with a slight hawkish skew vs the mainland consensus at 13:00BST today. Albeit, the move was modest in nature, with Bunds holding just above 120.00, firmer by over 40 ticks, vs a 120.17 peak. USTs bid, but the relative underperformers thus far, into a busy afternoon of data and potentially geopolitics. On the latter, we know that Iranian President Pezeshkian has now received the proposal via Araghchi from New York. We now await the leader's assessment of the matter. Elsewhere, PCE is due today and is perhaps more pertinent given the methodology changes included. Germany sells EUR 4.177bln vs Exp. 5.5bln 3.00% 2036 Bund: b/c 1.16x (prev. 1.47x), average yield 3.58% (prev. 3.39%), retention 24.1% (prev. 23.62%). Japan sells JPY 2.15tln 2-year JGB: b/c 3.89X (prev. 2.97X), average yield 1.964% (prev. 1.708%), Tail in price 0.014 (prev. 0.034). COMMODITIES WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures remain subdued after yesterday’s pronounced downside, with conflicting US-Iran developments providing little impetus for a sustained recovery. Crude also remains pressured by yesterday’s bearish supply headline which suggested the US offering up to 40mln bbls from the SPR, while private inventories showed a surprise 1mln bbl build (vs exp. 1.1mln draw). Modest upside was seen in the complex this morning after reports of a potential hijacking involving a Dubai-Tel Aviv flight, but was later seen as not a security-incident. However, recent reporting has suggested that the incident may be a “terrorist incident”. Separately, UKMTO reported that a crude oil tanker was struck on the port side by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on September 30. WTI currently trades towards the upper end of a USD 88.58-90.77/bbl range, while Brent sits around the middle of a USD 95.12-97.61/bbl range. Dutch TTF is choppy, with Germany ordering the procurement and storage of 8 TWh of natural gas by 15th December as Europe continues efforts to bolster inventories ahead of winter. TTF now trades towards the middle of a EUR 67.88-70.78/MWh range. Precious metals are mixed, with gold firmer as global yields ease following yesterday’s sharp steepening, while participants await US PCE later today. Spot gold eclipsed USD 4,200/oz to notch a current range between USD 4,166-4,201/oz, recovering further from Monday’s sharp sell-off. Spot silver is slightly softer and trades around the middle of a USD 60.84-61.72/oz range. Base metals are firmer following Chinese PMI data, with the official Manufacturing PMI returning to expansion at 50.1 and Non-Manufacturing rising to 50.2, while RatingDog Manufacturing and Services also topped expectations. Note, China heads for a week-long National Day holiday from tomorrow. 3M LME copper trades towards the top end of a USD 14,458.70-14,550.88/t range. In terms of notable geopolitics, Iran received Washington’s response to its seven-point proposal via Qatari mediators, with reports suggesting the main disagreement centres on the sequencing of the proposed seven-day framework rather than its components. However, Axios reported that talks and mediation efforts this week have yielded little progress, raising the risk of renewed hostilities, while Iran maintains that the Hormuz issue and US blockade must be resolved before nuclear negotiations. US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.0mln (exp. -1.1mln), Gasoline +3.0mln (exp. -0.5mln), Distillate -0.3mln (exp. +0.0mln), Cushing +0.2mln. OPEC+ oil producers are reportedly set to keep output targets unchanged at this Sunday's meeting, according to sources. US White House held crunch talks on a diesel export ban as midterms near, according to FT. US President Trump will unveil a USD 54bln Alaska LNG plan amid midterm woes. The Russian government has extended the ban on diesel fuel exports until end-October, IFX reported. Oman OSP for Nov' Crude set at USD 114.07/bbl (prev. USD 87.84/bbl). Iraq’s oil exports averaged 2.65mln BPD in September, including 250k BPD shipped via Turkey’s Ceyhan port, according to the Oil Ministry spokesperson. TRADE/TARIFFS USTR Greer said tariff caps will be considered when setting tariffs in the Section 301 excess‑capacity probe. China's MOFCOM warned that if the European side persists in introducing discriminatory restrictions on Chinese enterprises or products, China will resolutely respond in the interests of Chinese industry. It also said regarding reports of some EU member states mulling more forceful trade measures on China, that the tools mentioned are typical protectionist and unilateralist measures and will disrupt the stability of China-EU trade. The EU is open to providing single-market access to those looking to join the bloc, on the condition they stand with the EU against industrial competition and hostile nations, according to Politico citing sources. EU trade chief Sefcovic said they are pushing for reforms to tackle excess industrial capacity in G20 and WTO frameworks, while they are working for greater cooperation with the US and other allies to secure supply chains and prevent weaponisation of critical minerals. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES UK PM Burnham has suggested that a move to rejoin the EU is among the options for the UK, talking to BBC Radio 4. The current settlement has caused more harm than good. Germany's SEFE said the German Economy Ministry has ordered the procurement and storage of 8 TWh of natural gas by December 15th. The German government plans to introduce a sugar tax on July 1, 2027, according to Welt citing a draft. The report added that the government expects it will generate an additional EUR 945mln for the federal budget next year. Swedish NIER raised its 2026 CPIF inflation forecast to 1.6% (prev. 1.3%) and 2027 to 2.6% (prev. 2.1%). NIER raised its 2026 GDP forecast to 3.09% (prev. 2.4%) and cut 2027 to 2.4% (prev. 2.8%). NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP UK GDP Growth Rate Final (Q2 QQ) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%). UK GDP Growth Rate Final (Q2 YY) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 0.9%). UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Sep) +41% (Prev. +53%). French HICP Preliminary (Sep YY) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 2.6%). French HICP Preliminary (Sep MM) -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.7%). German North Rhine Westphalia CPI (Sep YY) 3.3% (Prev. 2.9%). German North Rhine Westphalia CPI (Sep MM) 0.6% (Prev. 0.2%). German Import Prices (Aug MM) 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.2%). German Import Prices (Aug YY) 8.3% vs. Exp. 8% (Prev. 6.8%). German Retail Sales (Aug MM) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. -3.4%). German Retail Sales (Aug YY) -0.4% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -2.5%). Italian HICP Preliminary (Sep YY) 4.1% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.2%). Italian HICP Preliminary (Sep MM) 2.0% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 0.1%). CENTRAL BANKS Fed's Williams said rising bond yields show tighter financial conditions at the margin. On AI, Williams said that it is not causing big changes in job levels while highlighting that strong AI investment is important to boost future productivity. On the recent rise in yields, Williams doesn't believe it is signalling a shift in longer-run inflation views. BoE Financial Policy Committee (Sep): The re-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has renewed uncertainty around growth and the path of interest rates in a number of advanced economies. NOTABLE US HEADLINES US President Trump told Axios that Jay Clayton would be a good AI czar. US President Trump released the White House Accord on Super Intelligence following the meeting with AI executives on Tuesday, while the document noted that every company is responsible for developing its own technology safely and each should apply four layers of controls and audits, including implementing strong internal controls to oversee model capabilities and alignment. US Democratic Lawmaker Raskin has reportedly sent letters Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), Meta (META) and Oracle (ORCL), requesting information regarding NDAs signed with government officials in relation to AI data center projects, according to the WSJ. GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST The Iranian government spokesperson said Foreign Minister Araghchi presented President Pezeshkian with a US proposal following his New York trip, which included discussions on Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, IRNA reported. This followed a Reuters report, which also highlighted that the main dispute between the US and Iran does not concern the components of the plan itself, but rather the order of operations and the stages of implementation of the seven-day framework. US White House is reportedly tempering expectations of an imminent breakthrough between US-Iran, Semafor reported, with a source suggesting that "the bar is being raised very high." A senior source said mediators are working to return negotiations to a broader track that includes the nuclear issue, Al Hadath reported. US-Iran talks and efforts by mediators this week yielded little progress, raising the odds of renewed combat, while Qatar will continue efforts despite growing frustrations with both sides, according to Axios. IRGC aerospace advisor said Iran can sustain current missile firing rates for years and the era of attacks without response is over. UKMTO said that a crude oil tanker was struck on the port side by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on September 29th. Following this, UKMTO separately reported that an LNG tanker was struck by an unknown projectile on September 29th within the Strait of Hormuz. An incident was reported on a plane flying from Dubai to Tel Aviv, with recent reporting suggesting that the incident was a terrorist attack, Al Jazeera reported. The report suggested that the co-pilot who stabbed the other pilot was of Omani origin. RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russian Defence Ministry said energy system facilities in Kyiv region were hit in a massive strike, according to IFX. Loud explosions have been heard in Kyiv, Ukraine. OTHER South Korean military said North Korea fortification works increased tensions on the Korean peninsula and that North Korea should stop fortification works immediately, while it added that North Korea should apologise for its fortification work and that South Korea military personnel were seriously wounded by North Korean mines. North Korea said South Korea is fabricating baseless findings regarding a mine blast in the demilitarised zone that injured troops, while it warned that South Korea could encounter a miserable and catastrophic situation. CRYPTO Bitcoin found a trough at USD 82.9k before completely reversing to top at USD 83.8k. APAC TRADE APAC stocks were ultimately mixed following the recent drop in oil prices and upside in long-term US yields, while participants digested a slew of data at month- and quarter-end. ASX 200 rallied with nearly all sectors in the green and real estate leading the advances as softer-than-expected headline monthly CPI data and a wider contraction in building approvals lessened the odds for an RBA November rate hike. Nikkei 225 gapped above the 66,000 level and continued to advance with the index shrugging off disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, in which the former showed a surprise contraction. KOSPI traded indecisively amid weak data and tensions with North Korea after a DMZ landmine explosion injured South Korean officers, while South Korea's military stated that North Korea's fortification works increased tensions in the Korean peninsula and that it should apologise for its fortification works. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with the Hang Seng indecisive and the mainland mildly underpinned following the encouraging Chinese PMI data, in which headline official Manufacturing PMI matched estimates at 50.1, and Non-Manufacturing topped forecasts and returned to expansion territory at 50.2 (exp. 49.3), while RatingDog Manufacturing and Services PMIs were both stronger-than-expected. In addition, the PBoC recently announced support measures including a 25bps cut to the Pledged Supplementary Lending facility rate to 1.50% from 1.75%, while participants look ahead to the National Day holidays and the week-long closure in the mainland beginning tomorrow. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES Japanese PM Takaichi said that the administration will boost supply side of the economy and that the government will clarify the direction of economic and fiscal policy management. Japan's Finance Minister said that they has been in close communication with the BoJ at all levels and sees no big difference in views on the economy and prices. South Korea's Finance Ministry said it is watching bond market developments closely and plans to use excess tax revenue to lower bond issuance if required, while it will conduct other stabilising measures including treasury bond buybacks if bond yields rise excessively. NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 52.1 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 51.5). Chinese RatingDog Services PMI (Sep) 51.6 vs. Exp. 51.1 (Prev. 51.4). Chinese RatingDog Composite PMI (Sep) 52.4 (Prev. 52.1). Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 50.1 vs. Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 49.8). Chinese NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 50.2 vs. Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 49.0). Chinese NBS General PMI (Sep) 50.7 (Prev. 49.5). Australian CPI (Aug YY) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 3.5%). Australian CPI (Aug MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 1%). Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (Aug YY) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%). Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (Aug MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%). Japanese Industrial Production Prel (Aug MM) -1.7% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. -0.2%). Japanese Industrial Production Prel (Aug YY) 3.4% (Prev. 3.9%).