[PRESS CONFERENCE] BoJ Governor Ueda says government measures and accommodative monetary conditions are expected to firmly support the economy
ORIGINAL · Newsquawk[PRESS CONFERENCE] BoJ Governor Ueda says government measures and accommodative monetary conditions are expected to firmly support the economyRead originalHide original
POLICY BoJ will continue to raise the policy rate and adjust the degree of monetary easing in response to developments in economic activity, prices and financial conditions. The Bank will consider adjusting the timing and pace of monetary policy based on the likelihood of achieving its baseline economic and price outlook, as well as risks to that outlook. Japan's financial conditions remain accommodative. Bank will assess risks to the baseline scenario materialising at every policy meeting, including December. Bank needs to assess the impact of cumulative rate hikes and financial conditions when deciding monetary policy. Ultra-loose monetary policy had some positive effects but was insufficient to lift inflation to 2% within two years as originally intended. Appropriate monetary policy is necessary to gain public trust. Bank cannot commit in advance to raising rates at fixed intervals, such as every few months. Bank wants to raise interest rates to the neutral level appropriately. BoJ Governor Ueda says he is aware there is still a gap between the neutral rate and the policy rate. There is still work to be done as the policy rate remains below the neutral level. INFLATION Medium- to long-term inflation expectations are around 2%. Underlying CPI inflation is at a level generally consistent with the 2% price stability target and is expected to remain around that level. Emphasises the need to keep underlying inflation near 2%. Various government measures have stimulated the economy, helping achieve the 2% inflation target. Various price indicators have recently reached around 2%. All members agreed that underlying inflation has reached 2%. Bank cannot condone underlying inflation rising furtherBank cannot condone underlying inflation rising further. Members share the view that they need to confirm how firmly underlying inflation at 2% has become established going forward. It is more important than ever to prevent underlying inflation from overshooting the 2% target. Bank will monitor various data to assess whether trend inflation has stabilised. Will closely monitor whether medium- to long-term inflation expectations become anchored around 2%. It is too early to declare the inflation target achieved, as inflation must remain stably and sustainably around 2%. Bank does not plan to make a formal declaration that its inflation target has been achieved. Risks of inflation overshooting have not necessarily increased compared with a month ago. Medium- to long-term inflation expectations remain far from being firmly anchored at 2%. It became clear in September and October that higher energy and materials prices are pushing up consumer prices. ANNUAL WAGE TALKS Bank is closely monitoring spring wage negotiations. Annual wage negotiations need to reach a point where 2% inflation is built in. ETF Important to see whether wage increases become accepted as the norm going forward. A faster pace of ETF sales would have only a limited market impact and that the Bank needs to respond appropriately to upside risks. FINANCING He is hearing that some small and medium-sized firms are struggling to secure financing. GOVERNMENT It is up to the government to declare an end to deflation. Declines to comment on whether the joint accord with the government will be revised. He understands the government will consider and make appropriate decisions regarding declaring an end to deflation. GROWTH Japan's economy is expected to continue growing moderately. J-REIT Bank maintains the current pace of J-REIT sales. GLOBAL Bank will examine various mechanisms, including medium- to long-term bond markets and FX, when assessing the impact of global central banks' rate hikes.
The BoJ described its conditional rate path, inflation-monitoring priorities and views on wages, financing, government responsibility for ending deflation, and global rate effects.
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POLICY BoJ will continue to raise the policy rate and adjust the degree of monetary easing in response to developments in economic activity, prices and financial conditions. The Bank will consider adjusting the timing and pace of monetary policy based on the likelihood of achieving its baseline economic and price outlook, as well as risks to that outlook. Japan's financial conditions remain accommodative. Bank will assess risks to the baseline scenario materialising at every policy meeting, including December. Bank needs to assess the impact of cumulative rate hikes and financial conditions when deciding monetary policy. Ultra-loose monetary policy had some positive effects but was insufficient to lift inflation to 2% within two years as originally intended. Appropriate monetary policy is necessary to gain public trust. Bank cannot commit in advance to raising rates at fixed intervals, such as every few months. Bank wants to raise interest rates to the neutral level appropriately. BoJ Governor Ueda says he is aware there is still a gap between the neutral rate and the policy rate. There is still work to be done as the policy rate remains below the neutral level. INFLATION Medium- to long-term inflation expectations are around 2%. Underlying CPI inflation is at a level generally consistent with the 2% price stability target and is expected to remain around that level. Emphasises the need to keep underlying inflation near 2%. Various government measures have stimulated the economy, helping achieve the 2% inflation target. Various price indicators have recently reached around 2%. All members agreed that underlying inflation has reached 2%. Bank cannot condone underlying inflation rising furtherBank cannot condone underlying inflation rising further. Members share the view that they need to confirm how firmly underlying inflation at 2% has become established going forward. It is more important than ever to prevent underlying inflation from overshooting the 2% target. Bank will monitor various data to assess whether trend inflation has stabilised. Will closely monitor whether medium- to long-term inflation expectations become anchored around 2%. It is too early to declare the inflation target achieved, as inflation must remain stably and sustainably around 2%. Bank does not plan to make a formal declaration that its inflation target has been achieved. Risks of inflation overshooting have not necessarily increased compared with a month ago. Medium- to long-term inflation expectations remain far from being firmly anchored at 2%. It became clear in September and October that higher energy and materials prices are pushing up consumer prices. ANNUAL WAGE TALKS Bank is closely monitoring spring wage negotiations. Annual wage negotiations need to reach a point where 2% inflation is built in. ETF Important to see whether wage increases become accepted as the norm going forward. A faster pace of ETF sales would have only a limited market impact and that the Bank needs to respond appropriately to upside risks. FINANCING He is hearing that some small and medium-sized firms are struggling to secure financing. GOVERNMENT It is up to the government to declare an end to deflation. Declines to comment on whether the joint accord with the government will be revised. He understands the government will consider and make appropriate decisions regarding declaring an end to deflation. GROWTH Japan's economy is expected to continue growing moderately. J-REIT Bank maintains the current pace of J-REIT sales. GLOBAL Bank will examine various mechanisms, including medium- to long-term bond markets and FX, when assessing the impact of global central banks' rate hikes.
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