[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude gains amid renewed Middle East tensions and shipping attacks; copper supported after Chinese data

WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are firmer amid continued Middle Eastern tensions, with the complex supported by renewed Saudi-Houthi attacks and further uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia confirmed that Aramco's Dhahran headquarters was struck by a Houthi missile, resulting in a limited fire, with more recent reports suggesting explosions in Jeddah. On the US-Iran front, Trump warned that Iran would be hit hard and said a decision would be made very soon, while Axios reported that Trump and Netanyahu discussed a potential joint operation against Iran before the elections, although the discussion preceded Trump's assurances that he would not strike before the midterms. Early morning trade saw WTI and Brent make fresh lows of USD 94.01/bbl and USD 105.41/bbl. However, benchmarks are now off worst levels after the Yemen Armed Forces warned that they would begin operations against Saudi Aramco/regional airports in the coming days, and interestingly warned global shipping companies. This spurred modest upticks in the complex, albeit within the day's ranges. Dutch TTF is also firmer but off its best level amid the aforementioned Middle Eastern tensions, with winter conditions underpinning demand at a time supply remains uncertain. TTF has fallen from a EUR 87.44/MWh high to sub-EUR 86.00/MWh at the time of writing, but remains well above its USD 84/MWh low. Precious metals are subdued, with spot gold relatively flat despite the recent pullback in US yields and the DXY, as participants await today's US CPI report for further clues on the Fed's policy path. Fed's Williams suggested one further hike this year would be appropriate but saw no need for additional tightening in 2027, while Collins maintained that rates may need to rise further. Spot gold has fallen from USD 4,170/oz to USD 4,145/oz, remaining within yesterday's USD 4,131-4,208/oz range, while spot silver is also softer within a USD 58.41-59.37/oz range, but off worst levels. Base metals are firmer, with copper benefiting from renewed Chinese demand and stronger-than-expected trade data, alongside the broader recovery in Asian technology stocks. Chinese exports (USD) rose 36.3% Y/Y (exp. 25.5%), while imports increased 31% (exp. 24.5%), although factory-gate inflation accelerated to 5.0% Y/Y (exp. 4.5%). Supply concerns also remain on traders’ minds after talks between BHP and the Escondida supervisory union resumed following an earlier announcement of strike action. 3M LME copper has risen within a USD 14,564-14,692/t range. Elsewhere, Chile has been subject to significantly bad weather in the past few days, and a state of emergency has been declared in eastern Santiago suburbs. Importantly, Codelco's El Teniente halted operations following a deadly landslide.