Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 12th October 2026

US President Trump announced a potential Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, while also lifting Russia's diesel export ban. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that he was willing to halt strikes if Russia stopped targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, but noted that Russia hit a power plant, following US President Trump's energy ceasefire comment. US equity futures are firmer but off best levels as energy rebounds (Brent +1.1%). DXY posts mild gains; GBP outperforms as PM Burnham aims for improved EU ties. Fixed income gives back earlier upside given the aforementioned energy moves. Looking ahead, highlights include BoE's Mann, Fed's Hammack, and LVMH earnings. US cash bond markets are closed for Columbus Day. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5% DAX40 +0.6% Stoxx 600 +0.4% FTSE 100 +0.6% ES Dec'26 +0.1% RTY Dec'26 +0.1% NQ Dec'26 -0.1% YM Dec'26 +0.1% FX DXY +0.1% (102.35) EUR/USD -0.1% (1.1188) USD/JPY +0.2% (158.57) GBP/USD U/C (1.3239) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -2 ticks Bund Dec'26 +20 ticks US 10yr Yield Closed German 10yr Yield 3.469% ENERGY & METALS WTI Nov'26 +1.2% Brent Dec'26 +1.1% Spot Gold -0.6% LME Copper +0.7% CRYPTO Bitcoin -0.5% Ethereum +0.6% As of 10:50BST / 05:50EDT EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses are firmer across the board, initially on the hopes of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. US President Trump announced an energy ceasefire between the two sides; however, Axios later reported that Trump’s announcement was pre-emptive but expects both sides to agree to the ceasefire. To add, Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia attacked Ukraine despite Trump’s announcement. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Banks top the sector pile, with Utilities and Insurance following closely behind. On the other hand, Media is the laggard, closely followed by Chemicals and Travel & Leisure. As the start of the Paris Motor Show gets underway today, the EU announced that China has agreed to limit imports of its hybrid vehicle to 350k/yr, with a 6% annual increase for the second year of application and will apply for four years. This follows the trade talks between the two sides last week, in which hybrid vehicle imports were in focus. European autos continue to benefit from last week’s announcement (Stellantis +2.5%, Volkswagen +1.1%). US equity futures are also firmer, with the Q3 earnings season set to get underway this week, starting with big US banks. For the sector as a whole, earnings are seen rising 3.0% Y/Y (vs 1.3% in Q2). Click for the session's European pre-market equity newsflow Click for the additional news FX Snapshot: G10s are broadly lower against the USD this morning. GBP leads vs peers, whilst the Swiss Franc is the underperformer. Focus has been on geopolitics, which has been on two fronts. Starting in the Middle East, the Houthis launched a deadly attack on an airport in Saudi’s capital, which could see the US enter on this front. Over in Russia-Ukraine, President Trump announced an “energy ceasefire”, which caught both Ukraine and Russia by surprise. Russia continued its strikes on Ukraine over the weekend. Speaking on the deal, President Zelensky said that he had found out about it through the media, though mentioned that he is ready to sign ceasefire guarantees. Russia has yet to respond. Given the aforementioned geopolitical updates, DXY is a touch firmer this morning, currently holding at the upper end of a 102.10 to 102.37 range. Aside from that, the docket is exceptionally thin, with newsflow also likely to remain light on account of Columbus Day. Attention for the week will remain solely on US CPI on Wednesday, which will be a key report heading into the October confab. Whilst money markets assign only a 20% chance of a hike this month, it could help strengthen tightening bets for later in the year. GBP is the slight outperformer this morning, ahead of PM Burnham’s speech today, where he is expected to speak on improving the UK’s relationship with the EU. Any progress to improving relations with the bloc could likely be seen as a positive for domestic growth, but will be clouded by what specifically the UK must cough up to strike a deal with the EU. The EUR is under mild pressure this morning, in continuation of the action seen last week (speculative net-short position hit its largest since 2020, via CFTC). Downside which was facilitated by ongoing French fiscal woes; the next point of friction will be on October 13th, when lawmakers will formally begin debate on the draft budget. The final vote is scheduled for 20th October. FIXED INCOME A firmer start to the week for fixed income, on account of the pressure seen in the energy space on steps towards an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, while in the Middle East Iran acknowledged that some of the seven points have been met, but not all. Action which leaves Bunds higher by about 20 ticks, off highs in 121.02 to 121.29 confines, with a pullback seen on recent energy gains. Energy aside, the bloc is focused on ongoing budget deliberations, with Politico reporting that Germany is to push for cuts to agriculture and cohesion, two of the most high-profile funding points. Elsewhere, we await the briefing by Chancellor Merz at 12:30BST, where he is expected to outline the changes CDU is making following the poor performance in September’s regional elections. Performance that significantly increased the scrutiny around and pressure on the Chancellor. Gilts opened higher by just under 30 ticks, broadly in line with the lead from peers at the time. Upside was a function of the discussed energy moves, and also increased commentary around EU-UK relations ahead of PM Burnham’s update to the House of Commons this afternoon. However, despite peaking at 84.17 with gains of 50 ticks, the benchmark has waned on a bounce in energy and on increased focus around the budget, as the fiscal task Chancellor Healey faces is significant. Finally, USTs spent the morning with modest gains but have now slipped to modest losses. In narrow c. 10 tick confines on account of the partial US holiday, which sees cash trade closed. COMMODITIES WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures were initially firmer early doors, supported by renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Trump's suggestion that the US could join Saudi strikes against Yemen. On diplomacy, Iran said the US had accepted some of Tehran's seven conditions, although the response remains insufficient, while exchanges continue through intermediaries. Nonetheless, Tehran reiterated that Hormuz will not reopen until its seven conditions are met, while warning of retaliation against any attack on Kharg Island. The complex reversed opening gains overnight amid Trump's announcement of a potential Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and a diesel deal with Moscow, with neither confirmed. Since then, prices have risen back into the green after Ukrainian President Zelensky suggested Russia had violated Trump's energy ceasefire. Thereafter, reports Saudi dealing with further strikes in the region, have kept benchmarks afloat. WTI currently holds at the upper end of a USD 89.61/bbl to USD 93.13/bbl range (vs Friday's USD 90.01-92.17/bbl range), while Brent sits at the upper end of a USD 102.33/bbl to 106.17/bbl range. Dutch TTF is firmer amid continued Middle Eastern supply concerns heading into colder weather in the Western Hemisphere, with TTF extending gains to a EUR 82.90/MWh high from EUR 80.63/MWh lows. Precious metals are softer, with spot gold pressured despite a slightly weaker DXY, as expectations of further Fed tightening remain a headwind, while diplomatic developments limit haven demand. Spot gold fell to a USD 4,168/oz low from USD 4,217/oz (vs Friday's USD 4,131-4,208/oz range), while spot silver has pared earlier gains, declining to USD 60.66/oz from USD 61.45/oz highs. Base metals are firmer, with copper extending Friday's rebound following the return of Chinese buyers after the National Day holiday. The complex also benefits from China's pledge for further policy support, although broader trade concerns remain. 3M LME copper trades towards the top end of a USD 14,554.55-14,660.00/t range. US President Trump said refiners and retailers need to begin dropping prices. US authorised an emergency exchange of up to 4mln barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to address storm-related disruptions. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister signed three energy cooperation MoUs with Kuwait, Qatar and Egypt. It was separately reported that oil executives withdrew from the Riyadh energy congress following missile strikes on the airport. In further comments, the Saudi Energy Ministry said they expect that it will take 2-3 years to increase oil pipeline capacity to 10mln BPD. OPEC Secretary General said oil demand growth is expected at 400k BPD this year. BP (BP/ LN) is working to restart production at its Na Kika and Thunder Horse platforms in the Gulf of Mexico after shutting output due to Hurricane Isaias. IEA urged member countries to accelerate pledged diesel releases and consider supplying additional volumes as global markets tighten. Russia’s Deputy PM Novak said Russia has started lifting diesel export restrictions immediately, and that exports are set to increase further in November and December as refineries return to operation following maintenance, TASS reported. Novak added that Russia is ready to supply additional volumes of diesel fuel to the US market, as well as to all its partners, as early as October. Canadian PM Carney's office said Carney spoke with US President Trump and that Canada will maximise exports of oil and diesel to the US, with exports to the US yielding over 1mln bpd of diesel. China's Agricultural Ministry expects lower corn consumption in 2026-27, with corn consumption now seen at 306.9mln tonnes vs. 311.7mln tonnes in the previous forecast. TRADE/TARIFFS China's NDRC vowed to step up countercyclical support and prepare additional high-impact policy tools as it seeks to achieve this year's economic goals. EU Commission Official said the EU has agreed to limit China hybrid imports to 350k/year, with a 6% annually for the second year of application and will apply for four years. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES UK Chancellor Healey plans short-term Budget giveaways to limit fiscal pressure and is due to unveil further support for energy costs this winter when the Budget is announced later this month. UK Chancellor Healey ruled out lowering the mansion tax threshold to GBP 1.5mln. S&P affirmed the UK on Friday at AA; Outlook Stable. EU leaders will discuss a scaled-back budget at their meeting in Brussels in the week ahead, after Ireland presented a compromise plan for the next seven-year budget that would cut EUR 160bln from the European Commission's proposed EUR 2tln figure. Germany, and allies, have informed European Council President Costa that cohesion and agriculture funding will "definitely" need to be cut in the next budget draft, Politico reported citing sources. CENTRAL BANKS NBP's Wnorowski said they could raise the base rate at the November MPC meeting and awaiting updated staff projections. BoK Governor Shin affirmed inflation is seen remaining above target for some time and noted that chip strength is supporting faster than expected growth. Shin reiterated that timing and pace of further hikes will be data-dependent. NOTABLE US HEADLINES US Senators reportedly demanded that President Trump reverse the Russian fuel imports deal, while Republican Senator Tillis warned that Trump’s Russian diesel deal may be illegal and put American lives at risk. GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST US President Trump said he was considering whether the US should join Saudi strikes against Yemen's Houthis, following another attack on the Saudi capital's airport. US reportedly accepted some of Tehran’s seven conditions in a response conveyed via the Qatari intermediary, but Iran deems this insufficient, while it reaffirmed that the only way to reopen the Hormuz is to fulfil all seven conditions simultaneously and in a single stage, according to Iranian journalist Ghaderi. This was later confirmed by the Iranian Major General Rezaei. US military said it had disabled a commercial cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman after the crew ignored warnings and attempted to breach the naval blockade against Iran. UKMTO announced that a tanker transiting outbound in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile, resulting in damage to the vessel. IRGC navy said a violating supertanker struck a sea mine in the southern Strait of Hormuz, which caused a fire and was the third tanker since Saturday to hit naval mines, while it warned that vessels disabling navigation and identification systems in the Strait of Hormuz will be treated as "hostile targets" and will face harsh, decisive action. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said exchanges of messages with the US continue through intermediaries, while Tehran is still reviewing US positions and will respond via intermediaries once the review is complete. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei said Iran is fully prepared and will demonstrate new capabilities if war resumes, while he added that US assets in the UAE and around the Strait of Hormuz are highly valuable but have not been placed on Iran's target list to date. Furthermore, he warned that renewed conflict would see many regional undersea cables, data centres, AI facilities and other sites destroyed, assets he valued at more than USD 2tln. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said Iran is in a state of war and that no commercial vessel may transit the Strait of Hormuz without prior coordination with Tehran, with the waterway a national security red line. Gharibabadi also stated that Iran is seeking to register with the IMO an agreement with Oman on transit routes, but noted that registration would not guarantee the strait’s reopening, while he added that reopening depends on the US fulfilling its prior commitments. Iranian MP Khezrian warned that any attack on Kharg Island will trigger a decisive response by Iran's armed forces at the source of the attack, adding that retaliation will not be limited to US bases, Defapress reported. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi held a call with Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister bin Farhan and stressed that Iran is ready to provide any assistance to help start dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Yemen and to help achieve a political solution. Saudi Arabia said 12 people were killed and more than 300 injured in an attack targeting King Khalid Airport in Riyadh on Saturday, while the airport was attacked again on Sunday, which caused a fire, as well as killed one person and injured nearly a dozen. Furthermore, the Saudi Civil Aviation Authority also announced that the King Fahd International Airport in Dammam was attacked. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan and Egypt issued a joint statement condemning continued attacks by Yemeni Houthis on Saudi Arabia, calling them a dangerous escalation and expressing support for Saudi measures to respond. RUSSIA-UKRAINE US President Trump claimed Russia and Ukraine agreed to an energy ceasefire with immediate effect. However, it was reported by Axios that a White House official said Trump's announcement of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine referred to a potential deal, which he expects Ukrainian President Zelensky to abide by, while the report added that Russia hasn't accepted any kind of ceasefire so far. US President Trump demanded that Ukrainian President Zelensky halt attacks on Russian oil refineries, saying he believes it is time for Ukraine to get a new president and that it needs a leader capable of reaching a deal with Russia. Furthermore, the US threatened to cut off intelligence sharing and block arms supplies to Ukraine, while Ukraine's negotiating team cut short its trip to the US after being blindsided by the announcement of the US-Russia diesel deal, although they had worked on a peace proposal that could be sent to Russia before winter, according to FT. US President Trump decided to pursue a diesel fuel deal with Russia after Ukrainian President Zelensky ignored half a dozen requests to stop attacking Russian oil refineries, according to a US official with direct knowledge cited by Axios. US envoys Witkoff and Kushner have not cancelled plans to visit Moscow but will arrive with a clear understanding of Kyiv's position, TASS sources reported. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that he was willing to halt strikes if Russia stopped targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, while he stated that Kyiv is awaiting details of US-Russia talks, but also noted that Russia hit a power plant, following US President Trump's energy ceasefire comment. In further comments, Zelensky said that Ukraine will respond if Russia does not agree to an energy ceasefire but stated that Ukraine is ready to sign ceasefire guarantees. Ukrainian President Zelensky said he will organise elections if Russia agrees to 60-day ceasefire. European Commission President von der Leyen said the EU will provide additional funding for drones and missiles after talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky, but didn't specify the amount, according to Kommersant. Later, the EU Foreign Representative Kallas said they have adopted over 1.5k Russian sanctions, targeting the missile-industrial complex. UK pledged to maintain pressure on Russia through its toughest sanctions regime following Trump's announcement of a deal to buy diesel from Moscow. Separately, UK PM Burnham said Russia interfered in the 2016 Brexit vote and called for European voters to be better informed about efforts to disrupt the democratic process, according to the FT. Western intelligence agencies warned Europe’s defence industry bosses that Russia is increasing efforts to assassinate them, prompting companies to increase personal security around their top executives, according to FT. Poland's Foreign Minister said NATO members should prepare a robust response for a possible deadly Russian “hybrid” attack amid increasing concerns about Moscow escalating its sabotage campaign on European soil, according to FT. OTHER North Korea launched two ballistic missiles that were believed to have already landed outside Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone, according to NTV. South Korean military spokesperson said North Korea's missiles appear to be a demonstration of its capabilities and a show of force in South Korea's hypersonic missile test fire, while the South Korean National Security Council convened an emergency meeting on North Korea's missile test. CRYPTO Bitcoin rose to a peak of USD 84.26k before completely reversing earlier gains and now near the USD 83.3k mark. APAC TRADE APAC stocks were mixed after geopolitical headlines dominated weekend newsflow and amid thinned conditions to start the week due to Sports Day in Japan and the quasi-holiday stateside for Columbus Day. ASX 200 was led higher by gains in key local industries with outperformance in mining, materials, financials, resources and tech, while telecoms, real estate, energy and the consumer sectors lagged. KOSPI suffered amid pressure in the tech heavyweights, while sentiment was also not helped by North Korea's latest missile launch, which prompted South Korea to convene an emergency meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed after the PBoC's improved liquidity efforts, while China also released draft rules establishing nationwide requirements for automotive parts remanufacturing and recently agreed to halve hybrid car exports to the EU in a landmark deal. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES China will launch an employment initiative aimed at adapting workers' skills to the development of AI. China released draft rules establishing nationwide requirements for automotive parts remanufacturing, including standards for sourcing used components, product quality, traceability and market oversight. China proposed banning fully concealed car door handles and requiring physical controls for certain safety-critical functions as regulators seek to strengthen oversight of vehicle design and product testing. Rules would prohibit foldable and flexible vehicle display screens and require additional safety assessments for a range of innovative designs, while the proposal noted some manufacturers launched products without sufficient testing. China is to cut VAT export tax rebate rate on NEVs to 9% (from 13%), effective April 1st 2027. China's passenger vehicle sales fell 24% Y/Y to 1.7mln units in September, while new energy vehicle sales declined 12% Y/Y to 1.1mln units.