Newsquawk Daily European Opening News - 6th October 2026

US President Trump said he is always open to direct talks with Iran and that it will all work out regarding the Saudis and Houthis. US President Trump said the Iran war will end soon and that the US secured the Strait of Hormuz; UKMTO separately reported a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait. APAC stocks traded mostly higher following the positive handover from Wall St; European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open. Crude futures were range-bound amid a slew of geopolitical headlines; 10yr UST futures traded little changed after yesterday’s retreat as the curve bear steepened. DXY remained afloat after gaining yesterday against most G10 FX peers amid the continued rise in long-term US Treasury yields. Looking ahead, highlights include German Factory Orders (Aug), EZ Retail Sales (Aug), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), EIA STEO. Speakers include BoE's Mann, ECB's Zigman, Elderson & Cipollone, Fed's Williams, Bowman & Schmid. Supply from the UK, Germany & the US. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Nikkei 225 +0.9% ASX 200 +0.6% Hang Seng +0.7% Shanghai Comp Closed Euro Stoxx 50 Dec'26 +0.3% DAX Dec'26 +0.2% ES Dec'26 +0.1% NQ Dec'26 +0.1% FX DXY +0.1% (102.17) EUR/USD U/C (1.1219) USD/JPY +0.2% (158.14) GBP/USD U/C (1.3218) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -1.0 tick Bund Dec'26 +19 ticks US 10yr Yield 5.32% German 10yr Yield 3.50% ENERGY & METALS WTI Nov'26 +0.5% Brent Dec'26 +0.6% Spot Gold -0.4% LME Copper +0.1% CRYPTO Bitcoin -0.1% Ethereum -0.2% As of 06:20BST/01:20EDT Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump said he is always open to direct talks with Iran and that it will all work out regarding the Saudis and Houthis, while he warned that Iran will suffer greatly if it has combat drones in the UK, but thinks the UK is still safe for US forces. US President Trump said they were able to eliminate Iran's military capabilities and secure the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated the Iran war will end soon, one way or another, and prices will fall. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Operation Economic Outcast is delivering results and that Iran loaded zero crude oil onto tankers last month, while he added that Iran’s top security official has admitted the country is facing one of the most difficult periods in its history. US Treasury said banks may be sanctioned for doing business with Iran, while it removed some Iraq and Venezuela individuals from sanctions. US CENTCOM said it maintains strict enforcement of the US blockade against Iran and redirected the 130th commercial vessel in the Middle East on Monday. US Navy helicopter reportedly transmitted an emergency code over the Red Sea, while a report noted that the helicopter most likely crashed into the Red Sea, citing analysis of flight data. However, there was no confirmation or denial from the US, while the potential cause was also unknown, according to BNO News. Council on Foreign Relations think tank said a final agreement between Iran and the US will likely resemble the Islamabad MOU and Washington will be forced to make concessions in the areas of sanctions and frozen Iranian assets to end the war. UKMTO also said it received a report of an incident within the Strait of Hormuz, where the captain of a tanker reported being struck by an unknown projectile. Iranian President Pezeshkian said negotiations are pointless with an enemy that assassinates and sanctions, adding that the US attacked three times after talks, according to Nour News. Saudi Foreign Minister stated that the Mecca Defence Alliance Committee said collective deterrence measures will confront attacks and those responsible, while the alliance reaffirmed its commitment to confronting attacks against Saudi and holy sites. Saudi-led coalition announced naval forces carried out a military operation in Yemen's Al Hodeidah province and thwarted a plot for imminent attacks targeting waterways in the southern Red Sea, while reports also noted Saudi aggression on Sanaa and the Salif Port in Hodeidah. Air traffic was halted at Riyadh Airport due to a Houthi attack, while IRIB reported images of a fire at the Riyadh International Airport after it was hit by a Yemeni ballistic missile. A Yemeni Houthi spokesperson said in response to the Saudi aggression that they carried out three qualitative military operations using a large number of ballistic and cruise missiles and drones, in which they targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and the Aramco refinery in Rabigh, as well as Abha Airport, Khamis Mushait Air Base, the Aqifa camp in Asir, and other critical sites in Najran and Jizan. Furthermore, their armed forces warned all international airlines using Saudi airspace to cease their flights, as it has become an operations zone for their forces, with the exception of the sacred airspace over Mecca and Medina. The Israeli army conducted an attack at the Jabalia camp in the northern Gaza Strip and carried out an attack in southern Lebanon. Lebanon and Israel talks are said to resume in Tampa, Florida before the Israeli election, with talks to be military, not political, and will likely be on October 20th, according to a Kan reporter citing Radio Lebanon. US TRADE EQUITIES US stocks gained on Monday with all major indices closing higher, and broad momentum was seen across sectors, in which nearly all gained aside from Real Estate, while Materials, Communication Services and Health Care led the advances. Treasuries sold off, and the curve bear steepened, with long-end yields leading the move higher. There was little reaction to the US ISM Services PMI report, which fell marginally below forecasts as activity measures slowed M/M, while Prices accelerated and Employment returned to expansionary territory. The rise in yields supported the Dollar, while the Euro underperformed amid lingering French fiscal concerns and further protests, and Spain's PM called for a snap election. SPX +0.71% at 7,777, NDX +0.87% at 31,076, DJI +0.18% at 51,268, RUT +0.64% at 2,851. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE US President Trump said he is in no rush to resume Canada trade talks. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they had to send back USD 180bln of tariff income and that it was a one-time hit, while he spoke with his European counterpart on Monday regarding China and tariffs. NOTABLE HEADLINES US Treasury Secretary Bessent said underlying, core inflation is down to around 2.3% and that interest rates are all a function of headline inflation, while he added that mortgage rates will come back down after the Iran conflict. Bessent said they inherited a big stack of debt and could start bending the debt curve very quickly, while he thinks they will see in excess of 3% growth for Q3 and noted the US economy is accelerating. NY Fed has been visiting big banks to review their loans to private credit firms and understand their exposure, while officials have gone into JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Barclays (BARC LN), and Morgan Stanley (MS) since the spring with questions about overall exposure and risk, according to Semafor. Wall Street banks begin offloading part of a new USD 60bln debt package to fund Anthropic's lease of Google (GOOG) semiconductors, according to FT. OpenAI is in talks with UAE funds and BlackRock for a USD 30bln funding round, while it also held funding talks with Thrive and Andreessen Horowitz. APAC TRADE EQUITIES APAC stocks mostly took impetus from the positive handover from Wall St, where all major indices gained and the Nasdaq led the advances to print a fresh record high, despite the continued upside in long-term Treasury yields. ASX 200 gained at the open with outperformance seen in real estate and utilities, while the top-weighted financials sector and mining stocks also contributed to the upside in the index. Nikkei 225 returned to above the 70,000 level but with the gains somewhat modest in comparison to the prior day's surge and in the absence of any major fresh catalysts, while it was recently reported that Japan’s GPIF did not discuss allocation at its September meeting. KOSPI underperformed on return from the long weekend with the index dragged lower by losses in its tech giants, while US President Trump had also previously threatened South Korea to sign on to the Alaska LNG deal or he will 'charge them more’. Hang Seng extended above the 24,000 level with tech and biopharmaceuticals spearheading the advances, while it was also reported that China's Moonshot is to close its pre-IPO funding round at a USD 50bln valuation and eyes a Hong Kong IPO in Q1 next year. US equity futures held on to recent spoils following the Nasdaq-led momentum stateside. European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.1% on Monday. FX DXY remained afloat after gaining yesterday against most G10 FX peers amid the continued rise in long-term US Treasury yields, but with the dollar well off Monday's highs, while currency-specific newsflow was light to start the week, and there was little reaction to a mixed ISM Services report, while participants await looming Fed speakers and tomorrow's FOMC Minutes. EUR/USD lacked direction with recent headwinds from fiscal and political woes, with French unions calling for a nationwide day of strikes on November 5th, while the Spanish PM called for a snap election. GBP/USD was indecisive after recent oscillation through the 1.3200 level amid quiet UK news flow. USD/JPY eked out slight gains and reclaimed the 158.00 status, but with late support seen as Japanese yields pared back some of their gains following a strong 10yr JGB auction. Antipodeans conformed to the broad consolidation seen across the FX space overnight amid a lack of fresh macro drivers and tier-1 data. FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures traded little changed after retreating yesterday as the curve bear steepened with long-term Treasury yields continuing to move higher, while price action is also contained overnight ahead of US supply and several Fed speakers. Bund futures rebounded from the prior session's trough but with the partial recovery stalling around the 121.00 level as German Factory Orders and issuances loom, including EUR 6bln in Schatz today followed by EUR 4bln in Bunds tomorrow. 10yr JGB futures initially retreated amid continued upside in Japanese yields, led by the belly of the curve, although a partial rebound was seen after stronger results from the 10yr JGB auction in which the coupon was raised to the highest in around three decades, to 3.1%. COMMODITIES Crude futures were range-bound following the prior day's choppy price action amid a slew of geopolitical headlines, including reports that Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline pumping was halted following a new attack, although a Bloomberg report refuted this shortly after, with sources stating that the East-West pipeline was flowing as normal. Elsewhere, US President Trump reiterated that the war with Iran will end soon, one way or another, and that prices will fall, while he signed an Executive Order to waive off-road requirements to allow anyone to purchase tax-free red-dyed diesel. US President Trump signed an order to waive off-road requirements to allow anyone to purchase tax-free red-dyed diesel. Trump separately commented that Russian refinery strikes by Ukraine and US closures are driving up gas prices. US DoE announced a USD 4.2bln investment to boost nuclear power and help lower energy costs in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Kpler data showed average daily crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz were at 10.3mln bbls in the seven days to Saturday, which is about 76% of the pre-war baseline. Spot gold lacked demand after recent indecision, and as the dollar kept afloat, albeit well off yesterday's peak. ICE has begun offering trading in gold futures in London, in an effort to introduce precious metals derivatives in the world’s centre of physical bullion trading, according to FT Copper futures gradually extended on gains after the positive risk environment rolled over into Asia. CRYPTO Bitcoin trickled lower after failing to sustain a brief reclaim of the USD 86,000 level. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES Many in the BoJ are cautious of raising rates in October and prefer to gauge more data on financial condition, while the central bank may signal underlying inflation has hit the 2% goal in the October meeting, according to sources. China's Moonshot is reportedly to close its pre-IPO funding round at a USD 50bln valuation, and it is eyeing a Hong Kong IPO in Q1 2027. DATA RECAP Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Oct) 80.4 (Prev. 84.4) Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Oct) -4.7% (Prev. -5.2%) GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russia carried out a strike on the Dnipro River Bridge in Zaporizhzhia. Moscow's mayor said 650 Ukrainian drones were launched towards the Moscow region. OTHER South Korea's Defence Ministry said it is preparing a response to force North Korea to apologise for the mine blast that injured South Korean soldiers, while it added that North Korea must remove the mines it planted in the demilitarised zone border. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES ECB's Moulin warned that France risks being strangled by interest rates if it does not act to clean up its public finances, but added that France could win back investor confidence despite serious and worrying moves in sovereign debt markets. He also commented that "France is not Greece during the Eurozone crisis" and that a rise in long-term yields, tighter financial conditions and the second energy shock may hamper demand and reduce the need for further action by central banks.