Fed Chair Warsh says he may be over-scarred from the Global Financial Crisis, adds since September FOMC, world has broadly conformed to our expectations
Warsh discussed economic resilience, forthcoming FOMC judgments, investment and AI, and the Fed's institutional credibility, while declining to signal future meeting decisions.
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Says: Will be crystallising what is happening to output, employment and inflation. We will be meeting a couple more times this year, which will be the crystallising moment. Right now, we have structural growth and an investment surge. Obviously, the Fed's policies spill over to the rest of the world, but their policies spill back to the US too. Will make judgements at the October and December meetings. At the Fed, we made clear that we would deliver price stability; I do not believe in prejudging meetings. Do not prejudge meetings. Do not believe in signalling what I might do at meetings for the rest of 2026. The investment surge is due to good policies. The investment surge is the most important upside development in the global economy. AI is going to hit the demand side of the economy before the supply shock. AI will help central banks have confidence in data and monetary policy. AI will change the real economy, but near-term impact on employment is uncertain. AI will make economy more productive, more wealth, but path to them will be a bumpy one. Fed task forces are charged with creating new intellectual capital to aid the FOMC. US is investing in new technologies through the private sector; the Fed does not try to determine who is right or wrong. Fed needs to consider financial stability risks. If he hadn't been at the Fed before, he'd be hesitant to introduce new ideas. Fed's power comes from its institutional credibility and it must be burnished. We will try to give equal forces to other parts of Fed business in next 100 days. Proud that Volcker, Greenspan and Bernanke left the Fed with greater institutional credibility. The world is changing faster than at any point in my adult life, requiring us to remain adaptable and consider what this means for the US. The world faces many common economic challenges. The global economy is showing resilience that I might not have predicted five months ago. It has been surprising how many G20 economies are holding up amid shocks. Inflation is not unique to the United States. We're going to come out stronger and that a durable economy is most capable of leading globally.
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