FedIMPORTANT

Fed's Kashkari (2026 voter, hawk) says economy keeps surprising him how resilient it is; Fed will do what it needs to do to get inflation back to target

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Kashkari described resilient economic conditions but housing-related pressure, discussed uncertainty over the rates needed to lower inflation, and emphasized monitoring inflation risks.

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Does not know how high rates will have to go to get inflation down. Broad economy is strong but there is weakness somewhere in some places like in housing. If AI proves to be a productive as expected, investment cycle could persist for a long time. Big gap between 2-year yield and short rates. Fed must pay attention to inflation risk premium, if it is large, it might be concerning. Inflation risk premium is a cousin of inflation expectations. Anything adjacent to housing is under a lot of pressure. If we keep raising rates it will put different pressure on different parts of the economy. Consumer spending is strong across the economy. Labour market is broadly healthy, not just an AI economy. 4.1% unemployment rate is good. Not hearing much from his contacts about interest rates, but is hearing a lot about inflation. In regards to Fed responding to one-time shocks, shouldn't react to that, but if its a series of shocks over 5 years, then should do. Don't think labour market pain is needed to achieve goals. FOMC atmosphere has been remarkably consistent under Warsh.

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