IEA Oil Market Report – November 2026:

World oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.7mln bpd in 2026, to 102.3mln bpd, before rebounding by 2mln bpd in 2027. Global oil supplies surged by 2.3mln bpd to 105.4mln bpd in October, lifting output by an extraordinary 5.3mln bpd since August. Following an increase of 3mln bpd in September, global oil supply rose by a further 2.3 mb/d to 105.4 mb/d in October on lofty Gulf exports despite ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and tankers. The higher flows underpin a sharp upward revision to 4Q26 supply, while 2027 has been lowered due to constrained Iranian shipments. Global refinery runs fell by 1.3mln bpd M/M to a seasonal low of 81.3mln bpd in October and are forecast to rebound to 84.7mln bpd in December. For now, the severe tightness in product supply, especially for diesel, remains the overriding concern of the broader market and consumers. Persistent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure continue to choke off the country’s diesel supplies to international markets, adding to losses from the Middle East.