Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News - 30th September 2026

US stocks were mixed, with most major indices in the red although the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 outperformed and closed with gains as Oracle saw strength amid reports that OpenAI's annual recurring revenue is reportedly close to USD 70bln, a steep increase from earlier reports of an annualised run rate over USD 40bln by mid-2026. Sectors were varied, as Utilities and Communication Services sat atop of the breakdown, while Energy lagged amid the losses in the crude complex after some more positive US/Iran rhetoric, as well as a couple of other bearish oil reports, including Trump backing Russia sanctions relief on prisoner release, and would create a path for the US to sign lucrative deals involving Russian oil, diesel, rare earth minerals, while the US DoE offered up to 40mln barrels from SPR. USD strengthened on Tuesday, supported by the rise in long-term yields, albeit gains faded in the afternoon on dovish Fed Williams remarks. The Vice Chair, who has historically been closely aligned with the Fed Chair in the past, sees no need for urgency after the September rate hike, arguing there is time to gather more information to provide greater clarity on the underlying economic trends and associated risks in support of setting the appropriate monetary policy. Looking ahead, highlights include South Korean & Japanese Industrial Production & Retail Sales, New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence, Philippines Trade Data, Australian Monthly CPI, Building Approvals & Private Sector Credit, Chinese Official & RatingDog Manufacturing & Services PMIs, Supply from Japan. SNAPSHOT STOCKS S&P 500 -0.2% Nasdaq Comp. -0.1% DJIA -0.3% Russell 2000 -0.4% ES Dec'26 -0.1% RTY Dec'26 -0.3% NQ Dec'26 +0.3% YM Dec'26 -0.2% FX DXY +0.2% (101.38) EUR/USD -0.2% USD/JPY -0.1% GBP/USD -0.2% BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +1.5 ticks 10yr Bund Dec'26 +40 ticks US 10yr Yield 5.24% German 10yr Yield 3.61% ENERGY & METALS WTI Nov'26 -4.0% Brent Dec'26 -2.0% Spot Gold +1.7% LME Copper +0.1% CRYPTO Bitcoin Flat Ethereum -0.4% As of 21:50BST/16:50EDT LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include South Korean & Japanese Industrial Production & Retail Sales, New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence, Philippines Trade Data, Australian Monthly CPI, Building Approvals & Private Sector Credit, Chinese Official & RatingDog Manufacturing & Services PMIs, Supply from Japan. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump said Iran is failing very badly and will be over very soon, as well as stated that oil prices will tumble. US VP Vance said information confirms Iranian officials opposed targeting the ships but failed to convince the hardliners, adding that they are guessing at the Iranian position due to the absence of a decision-making system. US OFAC sanctioned 10 individuals and entities across multiple jurisdictions under Operation Economic Outcast for procuring weapons and components for Iran's Ministry of Defence and Armed Forces Logistics. Iranian Major General Rezai said Iran has stated its conditions and that US President Trump is incapable of making decisions, while he added that Iran is ready to help establish peace in the Caucasus, but the US has no future in the region, and Iran stands firmly against it, according to IRIB. Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf reiterated that America should know that in a region where Iran does not sell oil, no one will sell oil, while he warned that if Iran's security is not ensured, no infrastructure will be safe. Iranian diplomatic source said Iran will be ready to discuss the nuclear issue only after the Strait of Hormuz issue is resolved and Washington lifts the blockade, while the source added that Iran is ready to discuss the nuclear dossier only after a number of conditions are met. IRGC reiterated that Iran will never seek a nuclear weapon, while it also reiterated that the conflict takes a different form and will bring new weapons to the field. Furthermore, it claimed most US bases in the region have been destroyed and can no longer be used again, according to Al Jazeera. IRGC spokesperson said that if they find out that an enemy attack is imminent, they will definitely carry out pre-emptive operations, according to Fars. IRGC spokesperson said US ships have fled 500km from the Strait of Hormuz and claimed that no American ship remains in the Persian Gulf, with not even a single ship or small craft in the US Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain, which operates from the Persian Gulf. Iranian Foreign Ministry said regarding Israeli PM Netanyahu's visit to the UAE that all countries in the region should be careful about the consequences of this trip, according to Fars News. Drone reportedly fired at an offending ship in the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz. UKMTO noted a report from the evening of September 28th saying a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, although the vessel is underway after the resulting fire was extinguished and with the crew safe. Mediators are working on an American-Iranian understanding that paves the way for reviving the Islamabad agreement, while communication channels between Washington and Tehran remain open, according to Al Hadath citing diplomatic sources. Mediators push to break the US-Iran deadlock, and negotiators were expected to hand over the latest amended draft of a proposed interim agreement to Iran on Tuesday, according to FT. Qatari spokesperson said efforts are currently focused on building common ground between the American and Iranian sides, adding that Qatari mediation efforts are ongoing and that there is no solution other than a peaceful one, with messages being exchanged and possible solutions discussed. Houthi source told Al-Mayadeen that any attempt to establish Saudi-backed groups and troop buildups will be met with targeting, while the source stated daily Saudi airstrikes are indiscriminate, target civilian infrastructure and will not go unanswered. Israeli PM Netanyahu is reportedly urging the UAE to engage in the war on Yemen in exchange for restoring some of Abu Dhabi's regional roles, according to Al Mayadeen. Israeli PM Netanyahu said there are indications that Israel’s enemies will attack before the Israeli elections on October 27th, according to Al Arabiya. Israeli officials told Channel 12 that a large-scale operation in the Gaza Strip is inevitable, according to Al Hadath. IDF is prepared for a wide range of scenarios in the near and far theatres, while no concrete, well-founded information has emerged so far that directly links Election Day in Israel to escalation, according to Kan News citing a source. US TRADE US stocks were mixed, with most major indices in the red although the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 outperformed and closed with gains as Oracle saw strength amid reports that OpenAI's annual recurring revenue is reportedly close to USD 70bln, a steep increase from earlier reports of an annualised run rate over USD 40bln by mid-2026. Sectors were varied, as Utilities and Communication Services sat atop of the breakdown, while Energy lagged amid the losses in the crude complex after some more positive US/Iran rhetoric, as well as a couple of other bearish oil reports, including Trump backing Russia sanctions relief on prisoner release, and would create a path for the US to sign lucrative deals involving Russian oil, diesel, rare earth minerals, while the US DoE offered up to 40mln barrels from SPR. SPX -0.17% at 7,671, NDX +0.21% at 30,339, DJI -0.26% at 51,355, RUT -0.35% at 2,808. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) are lobbying the Trump administration to stop lawmakers from curbing exports to China and are asking that lawmakers hold off on the China-related chip export restriction in the defence bill, while the legislation in question has bipartisan support, according to Politico citing sources. China urged the EU to use dialogue to solve disputes and vowed a response if the EU goes ahead with discriminatory moves. NOTABLE HEADLINES Fed’s Barr (voter) said there is a need to recalibrate policy, with a base case that further policy adjustments are likely needed, while he stated that risks to achieving the inflation target have increased and risks to the labour market have reduced. Furthermore, Barr expects GDP growth to pick up a bit in H2 from 2% in H1 and said inflation is a clear concern, with the Fed having been knocked off course to its 2% goal. Barr also said he is seeing some elevated wage rates in the skilled trades and that, taking the longer view, the Fed needs to be sure to do what it takes to bring supply and demand into balance. Fed's Williams (voter) said he sees no need for urgency after the September rate hike, while he noted that US economic momentum is strong and may be strengthening. Williams stated AI investment issues are an increasingly big issue for inflation and he sees US GDP at 2.25% this year and unemployment at 4% over 2027, as well as stated that Fed policy can make sure the impact of supply shocks is not long-lasting. Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said expectations of productivity gains from AI in the future create a high danger of overheating now and noted that nothing in the Federal Reserve Act says to make sure the bond market is happy or stock markets are not surprised. Goolsbee also stated that the Fed needs to revisit the logic of looking through supply shocks. Fed's Musalem (2028 voter) said central bankers needn't make promises, but should tell the public how and why the central bank makes policy decisions. He also stated that a well-articulated framework should include two or three likely scenarios, and that central banks should avoid communications and actions with no framework to make sense of them. US President Trump said he will sign a powerful order on AI and that the AI order will change the name to Super Intelligence. Trump added that he will never stifle the growth of AI and does not want to give China US AI secrets, while he did not discuss AI that much with President Xi and wants to keep the AI lead, and will sign an order to make agencies integrate with America.gov. US President Trump said regarding that AI meeting that it was very good and very productive, while he added the US has a big lead in AI and will keep the lead. Trump stated he would sign the AI renaming order at 5 PM EDT, as well as noted that AI leaders are to work with local communities on data centres and they will be releasing a statement soon to summarise what they did. Trump also said he will be naming an AI Czar in the next three or four days and that he discussed the Xi meeting in great detail with tech firms. US House Speaker Johnson said the US can achieve both AI security and innovation, while hoping today's AI meeting will reach an agreement and said AI industry leaders welcome some level of regulation. DATA RECAP US CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) 81.9 vs. Exp. 89.2 (Prev. 88.6) US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (Jul YY) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.2%) US Dallas Fed Services Index (Sep) -1.8 (Prev. 4.2) US JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) 7.079M vs. Exp. 7.23M (Prev. 7.335M) FX USD strengthened on Tuesday, supported by the rise in long-term yields, albeit gains faded in the afternoon on dovish Fed Williams remarks. The Vice Chair, who has historically been closely aligned with the Fed Chair in the past, sees no need for urgency after the September rate hike, arguing there is time to gather more information to provide greater clarity on the underlying economic trends and associated risks in support of setting the appropriate monetary policy. EUR trickled lower for most of the day despite hawkish-leaning rhetoric from ECB officials, but is off worst levels after dovish comments from Fed's Williams provided some relief for the single currency. GBP gave way to the firmer buck and was also not helped by PM Burnham's vow to scrap the pension triple lock, although the downside was cushioned by support near the 1.3200 level. JPY was indecisive with USD/JPY trading sideways in a choppy fashion at the 157.00 handle. FIXED INCOME T-notes settled slightly lower and the curve steepened as short-end losses reversed on dovish remarks from Fed Williams, who sees no need for urgency after the September rate hike, arguing there is time to gather more information to provide greater clarity on the underlying economic trends and associated risks in support of setting the appropriate monetary policy. COMMODITIES Oil prices declined and settled at session lows after further signs that US-Iran diplomacy remains possible, as Qatar said mediation efforts are ongoing and focused on building common ground between the US and Iran. There were numerous downside catalysts, including a report that US President Trump backs Russia sanctions relief on prisoner release, and would create a path for the US to sign lucrative deals involving Russian oil, diesel, rare earth minerals, and other commodities, while it was also reported that the US DoE offered up to 40mln barrels from the SPR. OPEC+ is likely to stick with the plan for steady quotas, according to delegates. US offers up to 40mln barrels from strategic oil reserve. White House has reportedly urged EU to draw down from diesel emergency inventories in a bid to lower global prices, while it was also reported that the Trump administration said several EU member countries have not released as much oil and refined products from reserves as they promised. EU Energy Commissioner said they have discussed possible oil release with IEA's Birol, and still need to have talks with member states and IEA on these issues. IEA's Birol said another oil stock release is not at the top of the agenda. Tanker Trackers stated that exports of Saudi crude over the past complete seven days average out to nearly 9mln BPD, and that's only from what they can gather from the available satellite imagery. GEOPOLITICAL RUSSIA-UKRAINE US President Trump reportedly doubts that Russian President Putin would agree to an energy ceasefire with Ukraine before the winter, according to Kyiv Independent citing sources. US President Trump backs Russia sanctions relief on prisoner release and expressed support for the plan a few months ago, while this would create a path for the US to sign lucrative deals involving Russian oil, diesel, rare earth minerals and other commodities. US official said Russian President Putin’s Envoy Dmitriev had a ‘constructive’ meeting on Monday with US officials on peacefully resolving the war in Ukraine, with possible US-Russia energy initiatives after the war ends also discussed. OTHER Japan and the US will hold large-scale joint military drills from October 19th for 11 days, involving seven nations and deploying 1,000km-range surface-to-ship missiles, according to NHK. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said China welcomes Japanese companies to develop in China and share market opportunities, according to Xinhua. PBoC cut the mortgage-supplementary lending rate (PSL) by 25bps, lowering the one-year PSL rate to 1.50% (prev. 1.75%), while it said the reduction aims to better incentivise policy banks to support the real economy and national strategic priorities. It will include construction of six networks — water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, next-generation communications networks, urban underground pipe networks and logistics networks — and guide policy banks to step up financing for these projects to help expand effective investment and deepen domestic demand. PBoC also raised the re-lending quota for tech innovation and technological transformation by CNY 200bln to CNY 1.4tln and increased the facility's support ratio from 60% to 100%, aiming to steer banks to expand lending to SME tech firms and support corporate equipment upgrades. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK PM Burnham said the UK will adjust the pension triple lock promise in 2030, with pensions rising by either inflation or 2.5%, becoming a double lock with wages taken out. Burnham said pensioners will always share in the rising prosperity of the nation, while savings from changes to pensions will go into the care service, while these changes will generate significant savings and he will make a manifesto commitment at the next election to change the electoral system. UK PM Burnham said he will not give the UK a clear path until the country decides a long-term relationship with the EU and noted that Brexit has done more harm than good, while he will lay out the different options for the UK's long-term relationship with Europe. UK PM spokesperson did not rule out the UK rejoining the EU and the government is not ruling out tax rises to pay for PM Burnham's social care policy, in addition to scrapping the pensions triple lock, while the changes announced will save GBP 15bln by 2040, but taxes may also have to rise, according to a government official. BoE's Taylor said the right policy response is to be vigilant but disciplined and monetary policy should not react mechanically to movements in energy prices if those movements remain primarily relative-price shocks. Taylor added that the case for further rate increases is not compelling to him unless energy prices remain high for an extended period and also generate clearer signals of a transmission into broader inflation persistence. BoE's Mann said inflation staying above 2% is an equality problem. ECB's DeMarco said stronger core inflation could be grounds to act and would not exclude a rate hike in October, while the recent rise in long-term bond yields is quite worrying. ECB's Escriva said the ECB is still not in restrictive territory, adding that what he would start to worry about is the global upward trajectory of long-term rates, which can add pressure to interest rates, while Escriva also said that Spain is not considering moving its gold reserves. ECB’s Kazimir said the rate hike was unavoidable, with energy prices remaining a key factor and January repricing set to be key for him. ECB needs flexibility and has enough time. DATA RECAP European Economic Sentiment (Sep) 97.9 vs. Exp. 99 (Prev. 98.4) European Industrial Sentiment (Sep) -3.8 vs. Exp. -4.7 (Prev. -5.0) European Services Sentiment (Sep) 6.1 vs. Exp. 6.5 (Prev. 5.6) European Consumer Confidence Final (Sep) -16.5 vs. Exp. -16.5 (Prev. -16.5) European Consumer Inflation Expectations (Sep) 35.2 (Prev. 33.0) European Selling Price Expectations (Sep) 20.3 (Prev. 16.9)