EUROPEAN OPEN: AAPL cuts Oct iPhone 18 Pro component orders; AIR FP Sept deliveries flat Y/Y; SPCX agrees USD 8bln spectrum acquisition; ROP SW wins FDA approval for colon cancer drug; RBC expects MBG GY to issue a profit warning

EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities started the last trading session of the week higher. Futures of the broad Stoxx 600 and the narrower Euro Stoxx 50 are primed for a second straight week of losses, however. Overnight, APAC stocks were mixed following a lacklustre handover from Wall Street, where the Nasdaq underperformed amid reports that OpenAI’s annual revenue rate was below previous estimates. Crude futures are trading lower, with December Brent around USD 103/bbl after President Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the midterm elections (on 3rd November); Trump said the US naval blockade of Iran would remain in place. The update has helped to offset the upside pressure from weather conditions, where Gulf of Mexico oil producers have shut 63% of production ahead of a hurricane, removing nearly 1.3mln BPD from the market, according to some estimates. Gold rose after strong demand at a US 30yr Treasury on Thursday afternoon pushed yields lower. Weaker oil prices also supported bullion following President Trump’s comments on Iran. Copper is primed for weekly gains, supported by renewed Chinese demand after the holiday, low inventories and supply disruption concerns at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine in Chile. Analysts say that US tariff uncertainty is also supporting prices, though tighter monetary policy could pose downside risks. Iron ore prices are headed for a third straight week of declines, as excess supply and weak demand pushed futures to their lowest since September 2024. Chinese port inventories rose to 152.7mln tonnes, while fewer than 7% of steel mills remain profitable; Guinean exports are also adding to the pressure. In politics, Labour won the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, a seat Labour has held the since 1983, and was former PM Starmer’s seat which was vacated after his departure. Sagal Abdi-Wali secured 45% (12,292 votes) vs Green leader Zack Polanski’s 8,928; Polanski said he would remain leader of the Greens. Bloomberg said that the Labour win is likely to be taken as a sign that PM Burnham is re-energising the progressive voter base that splintered under former PM Starmer. In fiscal news, European Commission finance chief Dombrovskis urged Euro area states to observe fiscal prudence given bond market developments, pushing back against Italian and Greek calls for additional budget leeway, though he said he would look deeper at their suggestions. In trade news, a US trade judge granted class action status to importers seeking refunds for President Trump’s tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court. Customs has already refunded almost USD 130bln of more than USD 166bln collected. The ruling could extend repayments to tens of thousands of importers who have not yet filed claims, with additional interest potentially reaching billions, Bloomberg said. STOCK SPECIFICS: TECH: Apple (AAPL) has cut October component orders for its iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max by 15-20% amid weaker-than-expected demand following price increases, with higher memory costs cited, Nikkei reports. SoftBank (SFTBY) is seeking up to USD 100bln from Gulf investors to establish a fund acquiring companies and improving their operations using AI, according to the FT. COMMUNICATIONS: SpaceX (SPCX) agreed to acquire Grain Management’s nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio for approximately USD 8bln in cash. The purchase, which still needs regulatory approval, would strengthen Starlink Mobile’s indoor coverage, and moves Starlink closer to directly challenging legacy wireless companies in the US; shares of T-Mobile (TMUS), Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) fell in US afterhours trade following the news. WPP (WPP LN) appointed Tyler Turnbull as CEO of WPP Creative, effective early 2027. ENERGY: BP (BP/ LN) is evacuating personnel and shutting in production at its NA Kika and Thunder Horse platforms ahead of Hurricane Isaias; Shell (SHEL LN) has completed evacuations and confirmed production shut-ins at its Appomattox, Mars, Ursa, Olympus and Vito facilities. Of note for LNG producers, Australia plans to introduce legislation next week to reserve up to 20% of output for domestic buyers; will impact Queensland projects operated by companies including Shell (SHEL), ConocoPhillips (COP), Santos (SSLZY) and Origin Energy (OGFGY). MATERIALS: Glencore (GLEN LN) expects its upcoming Sydney listing to attract Australian pension fund investment and support its share price; CEO dismissed concerns that the company’s coal exposure would deter investors, citing changing attitudes towards fossil fuels. INDUSTRIALS: Airbus (AIR FP) delivered 72 aircraft in September (vs 73 in September 2025), bringing its 9-month deliveries to 547 (+8% Y/Y), and vs its 2026 annual delivery target of 870; it sold 17 planes in September, taking gross orders to 1,174, and net orders to 1,105 YTD. CONSUMER CYCLICAL: Xiaomi (XIACY) shares surged in Hong Kong trading after reporting over 70,000 orders for its new SkyNomad SUV within its first month. Goldman Sachs said the orders supported Xiaomi’s EV growth outlook. Other China EV companies also rose after the news. RBC sees a reasonable possibility that Mercedes-Benz (MBG GY) will issue a profit warning alongside its Q3 results and lower its FY guidance. Also of note for automakers with US Exposure, UAW President Fain is poised to secure a second 4yr term, with most of Fain’s allies also expected to win; his re-election would see him lead negotiations with Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and Stellantis (STLAM IM) ahead of their labour contracts expiring in 2028. CONSUMER DEFENSIVE: Coca-Cola (KO) is again exploring a sale of Costa Coffee after abandoning an earlier process amid weak private-equity interest, Semafor says; Coca-Cola bought the chain from Whitbread (WTB LN) for USD 5.1bln in 2018. HEALTHCARE: Roche (ROP SW) announced US FDA approval of Tecentriq and Tecentriq Hybreza in combination with a fluoropyrimidine and oxaliplatin for the adjuvant treatment of stage 3 dMMR colon cancer. With a focus on the US, the * CMS Star Ratings were released, and showed around 71% of Medicare Advantage prescription drug plan enrollees are in contracts that will be rated four stars or higher in 2027. Oppenheimer said about 95% of Humana (HUM) members were in such plans, while UnitedHealth and CVS average ratings fell 15%; Humana shares rose about 13% afterhours trade, while CVS (CVS) and UnitedHealth (UNH) both fell, but pared losses. NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: ArcelorMittal (NL NA) upgraded at UBS; Heidelberg Materials (HEI GY) upgraded at RBC; Rational (RAA GY) upgraded at RBC; SEB (SEBA SS) upgraded at Barclays; Swedbank (SWEDA SS) upgraded at Barclays; Bureau Veritas (BVI FP) upgraded at Citi. Evolution (EVO SS) downgraded at Pareto; Rheinmetall (RHM GY) downgraded at Berenberg; Ryanair (RYA ID) downgraded at Barclays’ Pearson (PSON LN) downgraded at UBS; Pennon (PNN LN) downgraded at RBC; Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) downgraded at RBC; DNB (DNB NO) downgraded at Barclays. DAY AHEAD: EVENTS: President Trump will host Columbus Day celebration at 11:00EDT/16:00BST, and will swear-in the new Labor Secretary at 14:00EDT/19:00BST, and will visit NY to campaign on Friday. DATA: In North America, US prelim University of Michigan consumer sentiment data for October is expected to see the headline slip to 47.6 (prev. 48.1), current conditions inch lower to 50.5 (prev. 50.9), and expectations ease to 45.9 (prev. 46.3); 1yr inflation expectations are seen rising to 4.7% Y/Y (prev. 4.6%), and 5-10yr to 3.5% (prev. 3.4%). In Canada, employment change is expected to see 7K jobs added (prev. -41.7K), with the unemployment rate rising to 6.5% (prev. 6.4%), and average hourly wages rising to 3.0% Y/Y (prev. 2.0%). CENTRAL BANKS: ECB’s Schnabel participates on a panel discussion; ECB’s Cipollone also participates on a panel. Stateside, Fed’s Collins (2028 voter) will speak at the University of Michigan. CRA: After the close, S&P may review the UK (AA). ENERGY: Baker Hughes will report weekly rig count data (prev. oil 456, gas 133, total 598).