[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude retreats after Trump eases Russian energy sanctions; Middle East tensions limit downside

WTI/Brent: WTI Dec -1.5% / Brent Dec -1.7% Crude futures are softer following Friday's gains, with the complex pressured after Trump signed an executive order waiving certain sanctions, restrictions and duties on Russian energy. Trump also posted that significant progress was being made towards ending the Russia-Ukraine war and criticised Zelensky for targeting Russian diesel refineries. The US is expected to initially receive over 300k tonnes of Russian diesel, while Russian Deputy PM Novak said there were no obstacles to direct shipments to the US. Nonetheless, the downside remains limited by ongoing Middle Eastern tensions, with reports of further Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including explosions in Jeddah, Abha and Jizan. Elsewhere, Iran reiterated that its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains conditional on Washington meeting its demands. WTI has fallen within a USD 97.40-99.24/bbl range, while Brent has declined within a USD 107.75-109.65/bbl range. Dutch TTF: +1.4% Dutch TTF is firmer despite the weakness in crude benchmarks, with the European gas complex continuing to face supply uncertainty heading into winter. TTF has moved within a EUR 88.74-89.32/MWh range. Gold: +0.3% / Silver: +0.6% Precious metals are modestly firmer, with spot gold supported by the recent pullback in US yields and lingering geopolitical uncertainty, although the modest recovery in the DXY has kept gains contained. Meanwhile, spot silver has narrowly outperformed. Spot gold has moved within a USD 4,166-4,188/oz range, while spot silver has traded within a USD 57.10-57.51/oz range, both within Friday's ranges. Copper: +0.3% Copper is modestly firmer amid the recovery in US equity futures, although the broader risk tone remains mixed following Friday's tech sell-off. Chinese activity data generally topped expectations, with Q3 GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales all beating forecasts, although there was little reaction in the red metal. Supply concerns have also eased somewhat after Antofagasta reached an agreement to end the strike at its Centinela mine in Chile.