Market Analysis

US Equity Open: Software rout and Alphabet slump weigh on indices; Treasuries rally and metals slip

ORIGINAL · NewsquawkUS Equity Open: Software rout and Alphabet slump weigh on indices; Treasuries rally and metals slipRead originalHide original

OPEN: Breadth is strong at the open; however, downside in tech/comms is driving losses at the index level. The big move is in Alphabet (GOOG -12.0%) after a weak earnings report (profit and revenue light, worsening negative FCF); GOOG losses have eroded upside in Microsoft (MSFT -0.8%) after its earnings beat as tech sentiment sours. Tech is also weighed on by heavy downside in software, led by ServiceNow (NOW -24%), which is on track for its worst day since 2016 amid underwhelming subscription revenue. Software is also dragged lower by cybersecurity weakness, as Fortinet (FTNT -20.8%) missed product revenue and next-quarter revenue forecasts and cut its FY services guidance. On the flip side, Healthcare is outperforming following strong earnings from Eli Lilly (LLY +7.7%) and Merck (MRK); Industrials is only modestly in the green, with gains limited by a top-line miss from Caterpillar (CAT -7.6%). Yields are lower across the curve, falling further after in-line PCE data and soft income/spending figures, with the move accelerating as Alphabet shares sank at the open on AI profitability concerns. US GDP Adv came in at 3.4%, higher than the expected 3.2% (prev. 2.2%), while weekly claims display an unalarming layoff environment. Meanwhile, the dollar has managed to hold onto modest strength against peers; EUR/USD is little changed following the ECB's expected decision to hold rates, with the Bank refraining from giving forward guidance on the next decision. Precious metals continue to show weakness, with silver making new YTD lows, while gold trades lower by ~USD 41/oz. Stock Specifics Alphabet (GOOG): Weak report; profit & rev. light & worsening negative FCF Microsoft (MSFT): EPS, rev. & op. income topped w/ better-than-exp. guidance; looks to raise at least USD 25bln from USD bond sale. CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius (NBIS), IREN (IREN): Microsoft's lower-than-exp. capex points to infrastructure partners taking longer to deliver capacity Fortinet (FTNT): Product rev. short of exp. w/ FY services guide cut & next Q rev. guide way short of bull exp. ServiceNow (NOW): Underwhelming subs. rev. guide w/ a bookings & profit miss KLA (KLAC): Headline metrics topped w/ strong next Q guidance Cognizant (CTSH): Weak next Q rev. outlook T-Mobile US (TMUS): Profit, rev. & postpaid subs. additions beat alongside strong FY guidance eBay (EBAY): Solid headline nos. & GMV, alongside upbeat holiday-Q outlook Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH): Top & bottom line beat w/ upbeat FY profit view Caterpillar (CAT): Top line shy of exp. Mastercard (MA): Q3 results beat Eli Lilly (LLY): Headline metrics topped w/ strong drug sales breakdown & lifted FY rev. outlook Merck (MRK): Topped Q3 exp. as Keytruda & Gardasil outperformed Lumentum (LITE): Marvell (MRVL) in advanced talks to acquire Co.

StockNow breaking-news AI analysis

At the US open, technology-led weakness weighed on indices despite strong breadth; earnings moves were mixed, while yields fell and precious metals weakened.

News detail

OPEN: Breadth is strong at the open; however, downside in tech/comms is driving losses at the index level. The big move is in Alphabet (GOOG -12.0%) after a weak earnings report (profit and revenue light, worsening negative FCF); GOOG losses have eroded upside in Microsoft (MSFT -0.8%) after its earnings beat as tech sentiment sours. Tech is also weighed on by heavy downside in software, led by ServiceNow (NOW -24%), which is on track for its worst day since 2016 amid underwhelming subscription revenue. Software is also dragged lower by cybersecurity weakness, as Fortinet (FTNT -20.8%) missed product revenue and next-quarter revenue forecasts and cut its FY services guidance. On the flip side, Healthcare is outperforming following strong earnings from Eli Lilly (LLY +7.7%) and Merck (MRK); Industrials is only modestly in the green, with gains limited by a top-line miss from Caterpillar (CAT -7.6%). Yields are lower across the curve, falling further after in-line PCE data and soft income/spending figures, with the move accelerating as Alphabet shares sank at the open on AI profitability concerns. US GDP Adv came in at 3.4%, higher than the expected 3.2% (prev. 2.2%), while weekly claims display an unalarming layoff environment. Meanwhile, the dollar has managed to hold onto modest strength against peers; EUR/USD is little changed following the ECB's expected decision to hold rates, with the Bank refraining from giving forward guidance on the next decision. Precious metals continue to show weakness, with silver making new YTD lows, while gold trades lower by ~USD 41/oz. Stock Specifics Alphabet (GOOG): Weak report; profit & rev. light & worsening negative FCF Microsoft (MSFT): EPS, rev. & op. income topped w/ better-than-exp. guidance; looks to raise at least USD 25bln from USD bond sale. CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius (NBIS), IREN (IREN): Microsoft's lower-than-exp. capex points to infrastructure partners taking longer to deliver capacity Fortinet (FTNT): Product rev. short of exp. w/ FY services guide cut & next Q rev. guide way short of bull exp. ServiceNow (NOW): Underwhelming subs. rev. guide w/ a bookings & profit miss KLA (KLAC): Headline metrics topped w/ strong next Q guidance Cognizant (CTSH): Weak next Q rev. outlook T-Mobile US (TMUS): Profit, rev. & postpaid subs. additions beat alongside strong FY guidance eBay (EBAY): Solid headline nos. & GMV, alongside upbeat holiday-Q outlook Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH): Top & bottom line beat w/ upbeat FY profit view Caterpillar (CAT): Top line shy of exp. Mastercard (MA): Q3 results beat Eli Lilly (LLY): Headline metrics topped w/ strong drug sales breakdown & lifted FY rev. outlook Merck (MRK): Topped Q3 exp. as Keytruda & Gardasil outperformed Lumentum (LITE): Marvell (MRVL) in advanced talks to acquire Co.

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