US Treasury QRA: USD 125bln of refunding, raising new cash of USD 28bln. Expects to keep coupon and FRN auctions sizes unchanged for "the next several quarters" (omitting the "at least" guidance); 3s, 10s, 30s and TIPS sizes maintained
ORIGINAL · NewsquawkUS Treasury QRA: USD 125bln of refunding, raising new cash of USD 28bln. Expects to keep coupon and FRN auctions sizes unchanged for "the next several quarters" (omitting the "at least" guidance); 3s, 10s, 30s and TIPS sizes maintainedRead originalHide original
QRA To buy back up to USD 70bln across the curve for liquidity support. Continues to see strong demand for bill securities from a broad range of market participants. Intends to convert the 7yr from a monthly new issue to a quarterly new issue, with two reopenings. Issuance A 3-year note in the amount of USD 58bln, maturing November 15, 2029; A 10-year note in the amount of USD 42bln, maturing November 15, 2036; A 30-year bond in the amount of USD 25bln, maturing November 15, 2056. TBAC Minutes Members generally agreed that additional issuance should be concentrated in the 2- to 10-year sector, and had a meaningful discussion about potential future changes to 20-year and 30-year issuance. Committee agreed that in light of projected borrowing needs, increases in coupon auction sizes would likely be appropriate in the second half of FY2027. Borrowing in the SI sector is constantly evolving as new issues are announced nearly every week. Additionally, the sector is expected to continue to ramp up borrowing in 2027 as the demand for computing capacity outstrips supply into 2028. The presenter asserted that competition for capital currently appears to be contained within the tech credit ecosystem, and that there is no clear evidence that SI-related issuance is crowding out Treasuries or non-tech credit. Attributed the rise seen in the 10-year Treasury yield primarily to capex-driven economic growth that has pushed real yields higher, with additional upward pressure from energy price shocks. TBAC report to Secretary Treasury auction results show no evidence that 2026 technology-related issuance has crowded out long-end Treasury demand. (on liquidity buybacks) While an effective tool, the Committee believes that any management of Treasury’s maturity profile should be done via changes to auction sizes. Committee believes that given current fiscal projections, increases in coupon auction sizes will be warranted later in FY27. While there is broad agreement across the Committee to increase coupon auction sizes, there was considerable debate around the pace and sizing specific to the long end of the curve.
The QRA maintains stated auction sizes for several quarters, plans a 7-year issuance change, and reports TBAC views on future coupon increases, technology-related borrowing, Treasury demand and yields.
News detail
QRA To buy back up to USD 70bln across the curve for liquidity support. Continues to see strong demand for bill securities from a broad range of market participants. Intends to convert the 7yr from a monthly new issue to a quarterly new issue, with two reopenings. Issuance A 3-year note in the amount of USD 58bln, maturing November 15, 2029; A 10-year note in the amount of USD 42bln, maturing November 15, 2036; A 30-year bond in the amount of USD 25bln, maturing November 15, 2056. TBAC Minutes Members generally agreed that additional issuance should be concentrated in the 2- to 10-year sector, and had a meaningful discussion about potential future changes to 20-year and 30-year issuance. Committee agreed that in light of projected borrowing needs, increases in coupon auction sizes would likely be appropriate in the second half of FY2027. Borrowing in the SI sector is constantly evolving as new issues are announced nearly every week. Additionally, the sector is expected to continue to ramp up borrowing in 2027 as the demand for computing capacity outstrips supply into 2028. The presenter asserted that competition for capital currently appears to be contained within the tech credit ecosystem, and that there is no clear evidence that SI-related issuance is crowding out Treasuries or non-tech credit. Attributed the rise seen in the 10-year Treasury yield primarily to capex-driven economic growth that has pushed real yields higher, with additional upward pressure from energy price shocks. TBAC report to Secretary Treasury auction results show no evidence that 2026 technology-related issuance has crowded out long-end Treasury demand. (on liquidity buybacks) While an effective tool, the Committee believes that any management of Treasury’s maturity profile should be done via changes to auction sizes. Committee believes that given current fiscal projections, increases in coupon auction sizes will be warranted later in FY27. While there is broad agreement across the Committee to increase coupon auction sizes, there was considerable debate around the pace and sizing specific to the long end of the curve.
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