Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 19th October 2026

US President Trump signed an executive order waiving certain Graham Act sanctions, restrictions and duties on Russian energy revenues. Russian President Putin reportedly proposed a meeting with US President Trump and Chinese President Xi to discuss ending the war. US equity futures climb; French Luxury and Banks hit on protests. DXY modestly higher; Antipodeans outperform, EUR lags while USD/JPY regains 158. Fixed income benchmarks mixed; EGBs underperform as Dutch TTF climbs to fresh highs. Energy benchmarks fall as Trump eases Russian sanctions. Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI (Sep). Earnings from Cleveland-Cliffs. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 -1.1% DAX40 -1.2% Stoxx 600 -0.8% FTSE 100 -0.9% ES Dec'26 +0.5% RTY Dec'26 +0.4% NQ Dec'26 +1.0% YM Dec'26 U/C FX DXY +0.1% (101.90) EUR/USD -0.2% (1.1213) USD/JPY +0.1% (158.19) GBP/USD U/C (1.3330) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +3 ticks Bund Dec'26 -26 ticks US 10yr Yield 5.085% German 10yr Yield 3.434% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 -0.8% Brent Dec'26 -1.3% Spot Gold +0.1% LME Copper -0.5% CRYPTO Bitcoin +1.2% Ethereum +1.4% As of 10:40BST / 05:40EDT EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.8%) are broadly lower to start the week, as Dutch TTF rises to its highest level since 2022. Reasons for this weakness are two-fold: 1) continued Russia-Ukraine strikes, and 2) protests across the EZ (Italy, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, France). As a result, clear underperformance is seen in the CAC 40 (-1.3%), IBEX 35 (-1.3%) and FTSE MIB (-1.4%). Sectors point to a clear negative bias. Tech and Energy are the only sectors in the green, while Banks is the sector laggard, followed by Travel & Leisure and Autos. US equity futures are firmer across the board, contrary to their European peers. Strength which appears to be a slight rebound following last week’s hefty losses seen across chip and memory names. With the US data docket fairly light and Fed speakers in blackout, focus will be on some key earnings, namely SpaceX, Netflix, IBM, Tesla and Meta. Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow Click for the additional news FX G10s are mixed against a firmer USD. The Aussie holds towards the top of the pile, benefiting from strong Chinese activity data. The Loonie also outperforms, with Trump touting an “amazing” deal with Canada, at some point. To the downside resides the EUR, which digests ongoing civil unrest in France. DXY started the London session flat, but gradually moved higher as the morning progressed; currently sits at the upper end of a 101.76 to 102.08 range. The US data docket is light for the day, and remains that way for the remainder of the week; the Fed is in blackout ahead of next week’s confab, where rates are expected to remain on hold. Money markets assign a 14% chance of a hike next week; 75% chance of a hike in December. The pressure in the index seen last week was partly due to tech sell-off, and debt concerns surrounding AI spending. This appears to have abated at the start of this week, with CoreWeave +1.8% in pre-market trade. Given that the data and speaker docket is light this week, USD action will likely be dictated by the AI theme (Mag-7 earnings due this week), some also bring attention to Taiwan chip exports to signal a top in equities (due tomorrow). EUR/USD is currently underperforming vs peers; it fell beneath the 1.12 mark, to currently trade at the midpoint of a 1.1182-1.1234 range. Pressure potentially factors in the civil unrest in France, with protests reportedly causing damages of “hundreds of millions of euros”, in the region. As such, the OAT-Bund spread has once again widened to c. 144bps (vs recent peaks of 151bps). The Aussie is the clear outperformer this morning, taking positive leads from strong Chinese Activity Data overnight. In brief, Q3 GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales all topped forecasts; figures which lessen the odds of further near-term stimulus within the region. Nonetheless, the PBoC Governor has been on the wires this morning, where he mentioned that "we will launch a liquidity support tool for large-scale redemptions by non-bank institutions". More interestingly, the Governor mentioned that the open market overnight reverse repo rate will correspondingly become the main policy rate. A change, which in theory, allows the PBoC greater control over policy and improves the stability of the CNY. Whilst no move was seen on the announcement itself, CNY will likely take positive leads from improving regional data and the shift in the PBoC’s framework. USD/CNY currently holds at the bottom end of a 6.6805 to 6.6862 range. FIXED INCOME USTs are modestly firmer, benefiting from the downside seen in energy on the updates between the US and Russia over the weekend. Otherwise, the fixed income space is under pressure given civil unrest in Europe. For USTs, they are at the low end of a 105-18+ to 105-19 band, but still post upside of c. five ticks as things stand. As alluded to, US President Trump said that he is negotiating a Ukraine-Russia peace, and significant progress is being made. Additionally, he signed an executive order waiving sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy. Points that have weighed on the energy space. Ahead, aside from updates to those points and expected continued bipartisan criticism, the US docket is very thin today, with participants still digesting last week’s price prints ahead of the PCE print towards month end. EGBs in focus, and particularly OATs. Currently, at a 108.96 low, hit by over 70 ticks after the significant protest activity seen across France during the weekend, and widespread political dispute over it, all largely to the benefit of Le Pen’s RN. Action that has taken the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread to a 144bps peak today, just shy of the recent 151bps peak. A widening and unrest that adds to pressure into Moody’s review on Friday. Protest activity also occurred outside of France, with Italy seeing notable activity, enough to weigh on BTPs by around 25 ticks, with the BTP-Bund spread also modestly wider. Gilts opened on the backfoot, despite the energy pullback, as the region has similar fiscal/dissatisfaction themes that sparked the unrest seen in mainland Europe, and thus some spillover selling has occurred. Enough, as it stands, to send Gilts to an 84.29 low, off by just under 50 ticks. COMMODITIES Crude futures are softer to start the week, after Trump waived certain sanctions and restrictions on Russian energy and signalled progress towards ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Furthermore, the WSJ reported that Russian President Putin proposed a Trump-Xi-Putin meeting to discuss the Ukraine war; however, China’s Foreign Ministry did not share any information regarding the potential meeting. Despite this positive signalling by Trump, Russia and Ukraine launched large-scale attacks, with energy infrastructure being the main targets. In the Middle East, the environment remains tense. The IRGC stated that two oil tankers caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, whilst in Saudi, explosions were heard. In terms of the path to diplomacy, Pakistan’s Army Chief is set to visit Tehran this week, whilst the Iranian FM mentioned that Tehran’s seven-day proposal on the Strait of Hormuz remains on the table. WTI and Brent currently trade at the lower end of their USD 96.72-99.24/bbl and USD 106.82-109.65/bbl range, respectively. On the US-Iran front, Pakistan’s army chief Munir may visit Tehran this week, while the IRGC said two tankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Dutch TTF has risen to its highest level since 2022, currently trading in a EUR 87.66-89.32/MWh range. Precious metals are relatively contained, with spot gold oscillating in a USD 4,155-4,190/oz band. The yellow metal has held above the USD 4100/oz handle since the selloff at the start of September, while the USD 4k/oz mark has held firm as its lowest point since the start of the Iran conflict. 3M LME Copper found a bid at the start of the Asian session, reaching a peak of USD 14.48k/t, amid strong Chinese activity data, before falling to a low of USD 14.35k/t amid the broader risk-off tone. US President Trump signed an executive order waiving certain Graham Act sanctions, restrictions and duties on Russian energy revenues. Russia will initially supply over 300k tonnes of diesel. US Energy Secretary said the US is negotiating with European countries to release large diesel stockpiles, but their response has been slow. US DoE issued an RFP to exchange up to 17mln bbls of crude from the SPR. TRADE/TARIFFS US Ambassador to the EU Puzder warned of devastating retaliation if Brussels limits spectrum access for non-EU firms, after the EU decided to allocate most mobile satellite spectrum to domestic companies, FT reported. French President Macron said the EU needs to extend the China deal to include plastics, chemicals and ferroalloys. China's MOFCOM announced the tightening of export controls on specific drones, autopilots, engines, radios and related technologies, effective November 18, while also saying they will further optimise procedures for screening and identifying export control queries on dual-use items. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES France's Saturday cost-of-living protests drew around 550,000 people, with some 1,800 arrested and more than 500 police, gendarmes and firefighters injured, according to the Interior Minister; one demonstrator died and Limoges' historic town hall was torched. Clashes, fires and looting hit Paris, Lyon and other cities, and President Macron and PM Lecornu said violence would not be tolerated. French President Macron ordered a review of police preparedness and intelligence, empowered prefects and mayors to ban gatherings, and asked the government to hold cost-of-living talks this week. No decision expected from the UK regarding the Jackdaw gas field just yet, according to Politico, but a decision is still expected this week. Morningstar DBRS affirmed Italy at A (low); trend stable. S&P affirmed the Netherlands at AAA/A-1+; outlook stable. CENTRAL BANKS ECB's Lagarde said Eurozone headline inflation rose to 3.8% in September on energy, with no material wage response yet; sees growth of 0.9% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 after 25bps hikes in June and September, according to her IMFC statement. ECB's Nagel said the job of fighting inflation is not done and the ECB may have to do more. BoJ Governor Ueda said Japan is in a positive cycle of rising wages and recovering prices and anchoring core inflation near 2% is increasingly important; the steady recovery, tight labour market, strong AI-driven capex and exports, and Middle East energy costs are fuelling inflation. He said it would be inappropriate to signal in advance when the BoJ might conduct emergency bond market operations, with any intervention to depend on the speed of long-term rate rises and signs of market instability; long-term rates would likely rise steadily in line with policy rate hikes, financial conditions remain accommodative and fiscal spending is adding upward pressure on prices and wages. RBA Assistant Governor Kent said there is reasonable evidence neutral rates are rising in Australia and abroad, and that policy is somewhat restrictive but it is questionable whether it is restrictive enough; household demand is softening while business credit remains strong, and housing tax adjustments move policy in a favourable direction. He is cautious about monthly employment figures but said the labour market has become less tight and the market reaction to the jobs data was reasonable. NOTABLE US HEADLINES US President Trump pledged USD 5k for every adult if the GOP wins Congress, speaking at a Kentucky rally ahead of the 3rd November midterms; separately, Reuters reported he blamed aides for a faltering Republican midterm strategy as Democrats led House polls. GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST US President Trump said the Iran war will be over very soon and that Iran had been systematically destroyed militarily and financially, warning the US would soon finish the job unless Iran rapidly changes course. He endorsed Netanyahu ahead of Israel's 27th October election, where polls show a tight race between Netanyahu's bloc and its rivals, adding that if anyone else led Israel the US would have to do the work itself. US President Trump is reportedly mulling an attack on oil and military facilities in Iran's Kharg Island, ILNA reported citing UAE press. Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir may visit Tehran this week, ISNA reported. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains on the table: the strait could reopen within six days if the US meets Iran's conditions, with talks resuming on day seven; Iran said it is still studying US comments on the proposal. IRGC said two oil tankers caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz after hitting mines. UKMTO said a southbound tug was struck by two unknown projectiles northeast of Khor Fakkan, UAE, sustaining damage and one minor casualty but continuing its route. It also reported a tanker struck by an unknown projectile 68NM northeast of Saudi Arabia's Jubail on 16th October (crew safe and evacuated) and a tanker hit by an RPG fired from a small boat 78NM northeast of Jubail, possibly the same incident, and an LNG tanker fired upon by a skiff 140NM southeast of Al Mukalla, Yemen, before its security team fired warning shots. US CENTCOM said the US has helped ship over 100mln bbls through Hormuz in the past seven days, and a US commander said the naval blockade had stopped Iran exporting USD 25bln of oil and the US helped freeze USD 350mln of Iranian crypto. Explosions were reportedly heard in Saudi Arabia's Jeddah, Tasnim reported, with flight operations at King Abdulaziz International Airport disrupted according to Naya for Iraq, and in Jizan and Abha following attacks by Yemeni forces, Sabreen News reported. Houthis have repeatedly struck Riyadh airport and Saudi Aramco headquarters, with 19 killed in Houthi strikes as Saudi Arabia struggles to counter the attacks, AP reported; Iran is providing the Houthis with intelligence and targeting data for attacks on Saudi Arabia, WSJ reported. RUSSIA-UKRAINE US President Trump said he is negotiating peace between Russia and Ukraine and that significant progress is being made. Russian President Putin proposed a meeting with US President Trump and Chinese President Xi on the sidelines of the APEC summit in China (Nov 18th-19th) to discuss ending the war, WSJ reported. However, China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said there is no information to share on any meeting between leaders of Russia, China and the US. The Trump administration has proposed resuming Russian gas imports to Europe as part of a potential Ukraine peace deal, with US envoys Witkoff and Kushner raising the idea with Ukrainian and European officials despite opposition from European governments, NYT reported. US Secretary of State Rubio said US President Trump is open to anything to end the Ukraine war, while discussions have taken place over a potential meeting between Putin, Xi and Trump. Ukrainian President Zelensky told Bloomberg that the Trump administration is pressuring Ukraine to capitulate to Russia through restrictions on Starlink speeds and delays in Patriot missile deliveries. Zelensky proposed halting strikes on Russian oil refineries in exchange for additional US air-defence missiles and added that Washington wants strikes halted without reciprocal support. Furthermore, he said that US-Ukraine relations could improve after the November midterm elections and that talks are underway with US envoys Kushner and Witkoff over a possible meeting this week. In comments elsewhere, Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia launched attacks on Kyiv overnight on energy facilities and that Russian President Putin does not want to end this war. On intelligence, he said they did not receive a warning from partners on the Russian ballistic missile. Ukraine launched more than 1,000 drones at Russia, which set oil terminal and depot facilities ablaze, while Russia launched one of its largest attacks on Ukraine's energy sector, using 320+ drones and missiles against more than 15 energy sites, and hit Metinvest's Zaporizhstal steelworks with six ballistic missiles. CRYPTO Bitcoin has steadily climbed to start the week and briefly topped the USD 83k mark. APAC TRADE APAC stocks were mixed following Friday's tech-led sell-off on Wall Street, with Japanese and Korean stocks underperforming amid continued pressure on AI and semiconductor names. However, losses were pared as US equity futures recovered alongside a pullback in crude prices. Sentiment was also supported by Trump's latest Russia-Ukraine peace efforts and easing of restrictions on Russian energy, while Chinese activity data generally topped expectations but prompted little reaction. ASX 200 bucked the regional weakness, supported by Cleanaway Waste Management surging after EQT agreed to acquire the Co. Elsewhere, RBA's Kent noted evidence of rising neutral interest rates in Australia and abroad. Nikkei 225 and KOSPI underperformed as tech stocks caught up with Friday's losses in their US counterparts, although the indices pared earlier losses of over 2%. For Japan, BoJ Governor Ueda also spoke overnight but offered little fresh. Shanghai Comp was marginally softer despite Chinese activity data generally topping expectations, although Fixed Asset Investment remained weak. Hang Seng was closed for the Chung Yeung Festival. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES China PBoC Governor said overnight open-market repo rate will become the main policy rate, with a potential shift to overnight open-market operations to improve interest-rate regulation. The Governor added that monetary policy framework reform will remain gradual and ongoing, and plans to widen access to standing lending facility, introduce a liquidity tool for non-bank institutions and pilot further facilitation of onshore RMB purchases and sales by overseas financial institutions. China's Stats Bureau said the economy showed more positive developments in Jan-Sept, though weak demand and a complex international environment remain challenges; its Deputy Head said new growth drivers, including high-end manufacturing and the digital economy, accounted for over 40% of growth, while consumption contributed 46.7% of GDP growth. Japanese PM Takaichi said the government has no predetermined plans on whether to compile a supplementary budget and a robust economy can boost market confidence in the JPY; her approval rating fell below 50%, the lowest since she took office, Kyodo reported. NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP Chinese GDP Growth Rate (Q3 YY) 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.4% (Prev. 4.3%). Chinese GDP Growth Rate (Q3 QQ) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 0.9%). Chinese Industrial Production (Sep YY) 5.5% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 5.2%). Chinese Retail Sales (Sep YY) 1.1% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.4%). Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (Sep YY) -7.2% vs. Exp. -7.3% (Prev. -7.2%). Chinese Unemployment Rate (Sep) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.3% (Prev. 5.3%). Chinese House Price Index (Sep YY) -2.8% (Prev. -3.0%). Chinese Industrial Capacity Utilisation (Q3) 73.1% (Prev. 73%). New Zealand Trade Balance (Sep) -1.971B vs. Exp. -0.775B (Prev. -1.536B). New Zealand Imports (Sep) 8.44B (Prev. 8.02B). New Zealand Exports (Sep) 6.47B (Prev. 6.48B). New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (Sep) 53.4 (Prev. 52.5). New Zealand Services NZ PSI (Sep) 50.9 (Prev. 51.2).