EUROPEAN OPEN: Trump criticises Swiss watch purchases; DTG GY Q3 unit sales rise; SZU GY H1 sales broadly stable; TSCO LN narrows FY profit guidance; ANTO LN maintains copper production outlook; IMB LN launches GBP 1.5bln buyback; Italy mulls ENX FP stake

EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities started the day lower. APAC stocks were mostly lower following a negative handover from Wall Street, where stock markets pulled-back from recent record highs amid bond market volatility, and sentiment overnight was pressured as oil rebounded amid geopolitical updates. Japanese stocks were lower for a second day as TOPIX weighting changes drove selling, while higher oil prices fuelled inflation concerns. Chinese stocks fell as weak holiday spending and tech losses weighed; investors are also reportedly sceptical that further Beijing stimulus would deliver a sustained recovery, despite expectations for additional support later this month. In US-Iran news, the US military has been ordered to prepare for possible strikes on Iran as President Trump weighs the timing, according to multiple reports citing US and Israeli sources. The Pentagon reportedly told CENTCOM to complete preparations for renewed major combat operations, potentially involving a joint US-Israeli campaign targeting Iranian energy, infrastructure and nuclear sites. NBS said Trump and his national security team have discussed resuming large scale US military operations in coming weeks, including possible strikes before next month’s midterm elections. No final decision has been made. Crude futures gained, with December Brent trading above USD 103/bbl, and November WTI above USD 91/bbl. Gold rose after touching a nine-week low on Wednesday, supported by returning Chinese buyers; and although the Fed September meeting minutes showed all 19 policymakers backed September’s hike, traders said the minutes were somewhat stale given the more recent commentary we have seen from officials, and markets now pricing around a 20% probability of an October hike (vs around 70% after the Fed meeting). Copper rose as Chinese traders returned from a week-long holiday, and a strike at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine supported prices. Ahead of the start of EU-China trade talks today, Bloomberg reports that the EU is taking a tougher stance on China’s trade imbalance. EU trade chief Sefcovic is set to meet China’s Commerce Minister Wang, as Brussels weighs safeguards on Chinese hybrid car imports. France and Germany are also pushing stronger trade tools, while Beijing has warned against protectionist measures and threatened retaliation. Elsewhere, UK PM Burnham and German Chancellor Merz will ratify the 2025 Kensington Treaty in Berlin today; the pact deepens cooperation on science, tech, defence, security and growth; talks are focused on hybrid threats including cyberattacks, sabotage and misinformation. Data out of Germany showed the trade surplus narrowing to EUR 19.5bln in August (exp. 19bln, prev. 21.3bln), with imports rising +0.9% M/M (exp. 2.8%), and exports falling by -0.8% (exp. 0.8%). In the UK, RICS reported its house price balance fell to -32% (exp. -30%, prev. -28%); it said that a renewed rise in interest rate expectations has created a fresh headwind for the housing market, with buyers becoming a little more cautious and sales activity losing some momentum. UK private sector vacancies rose above the 50 threshold in September for the first time since July 2024, while permanent placements increased for a second month. STOCK SPECIFICS: TECH: Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) shares slipped in overnight trade after it announced prelim Q3 operating profit +783% Y/Y at KRW 107.4tln (exp. 108.7tln), missing consensus expectations, while Q3 revenue +127% Y/Y at KRW 195tln (exp. 199tln), also missing expectations. TSMC (TSM) Q3 revenue rose 51% Y/Y to TWD 1.49tln (exp. 1.46tln), according to Bloomberg calculations based on monthly revenue disclosures; September revenue rose TWD to 551.9bln (from 331bln in the same period last year). Bloomberg said that the result supports continued strong AI-related chip demand, with TSMC also considering further US expansion after previously committing USD 265bln to Arizona. COMMUNICATIONS: Tencent (TCEHY) is reportedly considering an offshore bond sale of up to USD 5bln, potentially in dollars and offshore yuan; the deal could come as early as this month, following a USD 4.7bln debt sale in June. Vodafone (VOD LN) targets mid-to-high single-digit adj. EBITDAaL growth for VodafoneThree in the UK, with operating FCF expected to more than triple by FY32; it also raised its annual cost-saving target to GBP 1bln by FY32. MATERIALS: Antofagasta (ANTO LN) said projected copper production remains unchanged despite strike-related impacts, while unions said the action will begin affecting output within weeks. INDUSTRIALS: Daimler Truck (DTG GY) Q3 unit sales 91,260 (prev. 72,277); Trucks North America sales rose 51% Y/Y and Mercedes-Benz Trucks increased 13%, while Daimler Buses sales fell by -16% Y/Y. CONSUMER CYCLICAL: Of note for luxury watch makers, President Trump said the US would save USD 40bln if it stopped buying Swiss watches. CONSUMER DEFENSIVE: Suedzucker (SZU GY) H1 revenue was broadly stable at EUR 4.19bln (vs EUR 4.20bln Y/Y); strong biofuel demand partly offset weaker sugar and starch revenue, while drought reduced expected beet yields. Suedzucker had already raised its outlook in September, citing higher biofuel sales. Tesco (TSCO LN) expects FY adj. operating profit of at least GBP 3.15bln, narrowing its previous GBP 3.0-3.3bln guidance range; it said that stronger online sales helped offset rising cost pressures in H1. Imperial Brands (IMB LN) announced a GBP 1.50bln share buyback programme for FY27 and said it remains on track to deliver FY26 guidance across all metrics. FINANCIALS: Italy is reportedly considering buying Euronext’s (ENX FP) 63% stake in European bond trading platform MTS, in a deal valued at around EUR 600mln. Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone’s holding company (which owns 10.3% of Monte Paschi) will vote against Monte Paschi’s (BMPS IM) bids for Banco BPM BAMI IM) and Banca Generali (BGM IM), and against its merger with Mediobanca (MB IM); the shareholder vote scheduled for 29th October. HEALTHCARE: Bayer (BAYN GY) said the US FDA accepted its supplemental New Drug Application for finerenone, supporting a potential new indication for adults with chronic kidney disease without diabetes. Zealand Pharma (ZEAL DC) reported positive Phase 2 ZUPREME-2 topline results for petrelintide in overweight or obese people with type 2 diabetes. Argenx (ARGX BB) reported positive topline Phase 2 results for FB102 in adults with coeliac disease, meeting the primary endpoint. The company also said it will discontinue the Phase 3 UNITY study of subcutaneous efgartigimod in adults with moderate-to-severe Sjogren’s disease. EX-DIVS Going ex-dividend today: WPP (WPP LN), Barratt Redrow (BTRW LN), Kingfisher (KGF LN). DAY AHEAD: EVENTS: UK holds the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. President Trump delivers remarks in San Antonio; Trump will attend a summit meant to empower scientists and position the US as a leader in breakthroughs driven by “super intelligence”. UK PM Burnham will hold security talks with German Chancellor Merz in Berlin. EU-China trade talks get underway today. DATA: In North America, weekly US initial jobless claims are seen rising a little to 200K (prev. 197K) and continuing claims are seen at 1,710K (prev. 1,701K); wholesale inventories are expected to rise 0.7% M/M (prev. 1.3%); after today’s data, the Atlanta Fed will update its Q3 GDPNow tracking estimate (prev. 3.7%). CENTRAL BANKS: ECB releases September meeting minutes. UK BoE publishes BoE publishes credit conditions and bank liabilities surveys. Banxico publishes September meeting minutes. Today’s Fedspeak includes: Fed’s Waller (voter) on the economic outlook; Fed’s Kashkari (2026 voter) moderates a discussion; Fed’s Musalem (2028 voter) speaks on the policy and economic outlook. BoE Governor Bailey speaks from Turkey (text released); BoE’s Lombardelli gives a speech; BoE’s Greene speaks in South Africa. At the ECB, chief economist Lane participates in a fireside chat and Q&A (no text). Riksbank’s Thedeen speaks on the economic situation and current monetary policy. SUPPLY: US sells USD 22bln of 30yr bonds, and a 20-30yr liquidity support buyback. ENERGY: EIA reports weekly natural gas stocks change (prev. +64bcf).