Global Economy

South Africa’s National Treasury says Inflation is expected to return to 3% target in 2029

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The 21 October 2026 Treasury update projects inflation returning to target in 2029, revises growth and debt projections, and outlines fiscal measures and bond-market changes.

News detail

Gross debt seen at 78.2% of GDP in 2026/27 compared with 77.3% of GDP projected in February. 2026 GDP growth seen at 1.2% (prev. 1.6%), 2027 GDP growth seen at 1.6% (prev. 1.8%), 2028 growth seen at 1.8% (prev. 2.0%). 2026/27 consolidated budget deficit seen at 3.9% of GDP (prev. 4.0%), seen at 3.5% of GDP in 2027/28 (prev. 3.5%). Government has published its proposal for a principles-based fiscal anchor, legislation will be tabled in Parliament in 2027. Allocates ZAR 10bln for two months of additional fuel price levy relief. 2025/26 budget balance at -ZAR 328.1bln, or -4.2%/GDP. Introducing a bond buyback programme as an additional liability management tool to manage the large redemptions. Inflation-linked bond auction amount will decrease by ZAR 100mln to ZAR 900mln. Competitive fixed-rate bond auction amount will decrease by ZAR 600mln to ZAR 1.950bln.

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