[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude pares earlier gains in choppy trade; metals trade lacklustre ahead of FOMC minutes

WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are mixed after paring overnight gains, with the complex caught between ongoing geopolitical risks and signs of improving supply. Overnight upside was driven by continued Saudi-Houthi attacks, reports of a vessel being attacked off Oman’s Musandam coast and missiles launched towards the Strait of Hormuz. However, gains were capped by yesterday’s Saudi Energy Minister supply comments, while Trump reiterated that millions of barrels have recently moved through Hormuz and expects oil prices to fall once the Iran war ends. US VP Vance also highlighted terms to end the Iran war, stating that Iran must cut its enrichment meaningfully. More recently, modest brief upside was seen after EU states said they expect no new oil-release obligations following the G7 agreement, alongside Zelensky saying Ukraine struck four targets supporting Russia’s war effort, including two oil facilities. WTI resides within a USD 89.44-90.61/bbl range, while Brent trades within a USD 100.82-101.81/bbl range. Dutch TTF is firmer, extending from a EUR 75.52/MWh low to EUR 77.37/MWh at the time of writing, as European energy-security concerns remain elevated amid continued Middle East disruption. Attention is also on the IEA’s informal meeting at 12:00 BST, where proposals to release oil and diesel reserves will be discussed. Precious metals are softer as the USD firms and yields rebound alongside energy prices. Spot gold has fallen from USD 4,170/oz to a USD 4,125/oz low, while spot silver has declined from USD 61.50/oz to USD 60.34/oz. The FOMC Minutes later today could provide impetus. As a reminder, The Fed unanimously hiked rates by 25bps in September, with the median participant projecting one more hike in 2026 and rates on hold through 2027. Since then, Williams and Jefferson have signalled no rush for further hikes, and Bowman sees none, while softer PCE data and a soft jobs report, with unemployment rising to 4.2%, may leave the minutes stale. A full primer is available in Newsquawk’s week ahead note, available in the research suite. Base metals are flat/mixed amid the firmer USD, higher yields and a generally lacklustre risk tone, with Chinese buyers still absent ahead of their return from the week-long holiday tomorrow. Copper remains capped, with the return of Chinese participation overall providing little support to the complex. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 14,339.60-14,445.85/t range.