Primer: US CPI due Wednesday 14th October 2026 at 13:30 BST / 08:30 EDT

Analysts expect US headline CPI to rise 0.6% M/M in September (prev. 0.4%), with the annual rate accelerating to 3.6% Y/Y (prev. 3.4%). Meanwhile, core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.3%), moderating from August's reading, which marked the fastest monthly pace in four months and contributed to the Fed delivering its first rate hike since 2023. The annual core rate is expected to edge higher to 2.5% Y/Y (prev. 2.4%). Last week's FOMC minutes showed that policymakers unanimously supported September's rate hike amid persistent inflation pressures. However, following softer labour market data, officials have since adopted a more patient approach towards further tightening. Influential Fed officials Jefferson, Williams, Waller and Bowman have all signalled little urgency to deliver another hike in October. Jefferson and Williams suggested the Fed has time to assess incoming data before tightening further, while Waller expects additional hikes will be needed to return inflation to 2% but stressed that they do not need to occur at consecutive meetings. Bowman also sees little urgency to adjust rates again. Following the weak September jobs report and subsequent Fed commentary, market-implied pricing for a 25bps October hike has fallen to around 20% from approximately 70% before the employment release. Given the Fed's emphasis on incoming data, the September inflation report could meaningfully influence market pricing for both the October and December meetings. Thursday's PPI report will provide further insight into the inflation outlook, with analysts using components from both the CPI and PPI reports to refine their estimates for September core PCE. Headline PPI is expected to rise 0.5% M/M (prev. 0.4%), while core PPI is seen increasing 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.2%), although forecasts may be revised ahead of the release. Following the inflation reports, Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to speak at the IMF in Bangkok early Friday morning BST. His remarks will be closely watched for his assessment of the latest inflation data and the implications for monetary policy. Although Warsh has expressed a preference against explicit forward guidance, his comments could still help shape expectations for further rate hikes, particularly whether he echoes the more patient approach recently signalled by other Fed officials. He may also offer insight into the Fed's assessment of the September PCE report, due on October 29th.