Newsquawk European Market Wrap - 11th November 2026

European bourses were broadly firmer; tech outperformed thanks to strong CoreWeave results. Punchy rhetoric from Iran's Rezaei spurred strength in the crude complex; oil tankers continue to hit sea mines. Iran's Rezaei said that any new US attack would be met with the targeting of "distant" US military bases as well, Al Mayadeen reported; will not remove any enriched nuclear material from Iran. EQUITIES European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) were mostly firmer, taking lead from a generally stronger APAC session overnight. Some major indices do look to end the day in the red, albeit modestly so; the AEX was the outperformer, benefiting from gains across the Tech space. The sector outperformed following strong CoreWeave results (more below), which boosted sentiment across major Korean tech names such as SK Hynix and Samsung. Key Movers: Alcon (-4%, decent results but tightened 2026 outlook), Brenntag (-3.1%, Q3 EBITDA missed consensus), Siemens Energy (+8.7%, Net, Revenue & Profit beat, Orders miss. Increasing buyback and dividend), RWE (+2.3%, adj. EBITDA and Net Income higher Y/Y. FY Net Income seen at the upper end of the range). US indices opened on a strong footing, with outperformance in the tech-heavy NQ following CoreWeave (+13%) results. The Co. reported stronger than expected quarterly revenue and adj. EBITDA, alongside upgraded FY guidance and a growing order backlog; the release highlighted robust AI infrastructure demand. Attention is also on Anthropic, with Bloomberg reports suggesting that its IPO is multiple times oversubscribed. FX Snapshot: DXY stronger as energy benchmarks move off recent lows amidst the lack of material progress in the trilateral talks between US-Russia-Ukraine, and after hawkish rhetoric from Iranian officials. The Aussie fared a bit better vs peers, whilst the CHF underperformed amidst widening yield differentials. DXY continued to build on the prior day’s advances, and is set to end the London day at the upper end of a 102.20 to 102.89 range. The index now eyes the high from Oct 14 (102.94), and a breach beyond that will see the index head back towards levels not seen since April 2025. The geopolitical environment remained volatile; US-Russia-Ukraine trilateral talks did not yield any significant progress, though a Russian official suggested it was a step closer to peace. The US-Iran situation appears to be flaring up once again, with a number of ships running into sea mines; separately, hawkish commentary from an Iranian official spurred some upside in crude benchmarks. US-specific newsflow will be light for the remainder of the day, but will pick up in the form of Fed speak by tomorrow. Attention will be on whether any policymakers share Waller’s view that a 50bps hike could be warranted. As it stands, money markets assign an 85% chance of a 25bps increase in December, and a 13% chance of a larger 50bps hike. G10 peers are lower across the board. EUR/USD made fresh YTD lows at 1.1085, trading at levels not seen since May 2025. Over in Japan, USD/JPY breached the 159.00 level to make a peak at 159.68 (currently a moving target). The pair trading at these levels will most likely spur some jawboning from Japanese officials. However, with widening yield differentials between the Fed and BoJ, any attempts to talk up the JPY may prove to be ineffective. FIXED A session of modest pressure for USTs, but in thin conditions owing to Veterans Day. Initial focus was continuing to digest the hawkish impulses from Tuesday’s session. Thereafter, the energy upside seen on Iranian rhetoric added to the bearish move; note, cash trade is closed today. At worst, USTs at a 106-00 base, lower by just under 10 ticks on the day, and essentially a full point below the pre-Waller levels on Tuesday. The docket for the rest of today is light, but Thursday has supply and numerous Fed speakers before PPI on Friday. Bunds spent the morning firmer, by about 10 ticks at best in limited respite from the US-induced action on Tuesday. However, the mentioned energy moves and further upside in Dutch TTF sent the space back into the red as the session progressed, lower by a few ticks at the trough of 122.46-80 confines. Gilts in-fitting, and while they opened on the front foot are set to end the European day flat at 86.12-47 parameters. Germany sold EUR 1.931bln vs exp. EUR 2.5bln 3.40% 2047 and 2.90% 2056 Bunds. EUR 0.853bln 3.40% 2047: b/c 1.8x (prev. 2.50x), average yield 3.65% (prev. 3.80%), retention 14.70% (prev. 23.9%). EUR 1.078bln 2.90% 2056: b/c 1.3x (prev. 1.40x), average yield 3.66% (prev. 3.80%), retention 28.3% (prev. 25.3%). UK sold GBP 1bln 0.125% 2028 Gilt via tender: b/c 3.94x (prev. 3.76x), average yield 4.185% (prev. 4.272%). China is set to issue up to USD 2bln of dollar-denominated bonds in Hong Kong. COMMODITIES Crude began the day with modest upside, before extending on punchy rhetoric from Iran’s Rezaei. Among other points, he said that if the US targets Iran then it would be met with the targeting of “distant” US military bases as well, and that they will not remove any enriched uranium. Commentary which, in a belated reaction, contributed to Brent hitting a USD 93.61/bbl peak, firmer by over USD 2/bbl at best. However, while notable on the day, Brent remains well shy of levels from the last few weeks, when USD 115/bbl printed. Elsewhere, focus on the Abu Dhabi talks which, in short, have not led to a significant breakthrough; but, have led to further high-level meetings being scheduled and some tangible signs of progress via a prisoner swap. Nonetheless, European gas prices continue to climb as some forecasts turn colder and potentially in disappointment from the above. Spot gold recovered somewhat from the CPI/Waller induced pressure on Tuesday. However, it has struggled to make any real ground amid a strong USD and the constructive risk tone. Holds below USD 4050/oz, and over USD 100/oz shy of levels from earlier in the week. Finally, base peers follow the tone higher, but perhaps capped by the USD.  OPEC MOMR (Nov): 2026 and 2027 demand and supply forecast unchanged from the prior report. Iran's National Gas CEO said that despite the South Pars incident the gas network is stable. EUROPEAN DATA Italian Industrial Production (Sep YY) -0.1% (Prev. 0.2%). Italian Industrial Production (Sep MM) 1.2% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -1.2%). Swedish Household Consumption (Oct YY) 3.3% (Prev. 3.5%). Swedish Household Consumption (Oct MM) 1.20% (Prev. 1.10%). German CPI Final (Oct MM) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.6%). German HICP Final (Oct YY) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 3.3%). German CPI Final (Oct YY) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 3.3%). German HICP Final (Oct MM) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.6%). NOTABLE HEADLINES UK PM Burnham said an EU deal could add 0.4% to UK GDP. German Finance Minister said Germany's AAA rating is not in danger. Germany's Council of Economic Experts said forecasts are expected to rise significantly. CENTRAL BANKS ECB's Makhlouf said price pressures are largely confined to energy but upside risks remain. ECB's Nagel said German recovery stronger than forecast, adding that growth is likely to accelerate in Q4. PBoC Q3 Monetary Policy Implementation report said the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth. SNB's Schlegel said that they are ready to be active in FX markets. GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russian Official Ushakov said talks in Abu Dhabi were substantial and very useful; Russian President Putin to meet US envoys Witkoff and Kushner on Thursday morning. Russia's Top Ukraine Negotiator Medinsky said it seems like we are closer to peace, but now a lot depends on all participants in the process. German government spokesperson said that there is a proposal that Europeans could join future Ukraine talks. Russian Trade Balance (Sep) 12.08B (Prev. 11.74B). Russia's Peskov said President Putin is open to contact with the EU. Ukraine negotiator Umerov, after the Abu Dhabi talks, said talks should be multilateral, not trilateral; Europeans should be involved. Have good momentum to come to a solution before end-2026. No ultimatums were put forward. US Envoy Kushner said, after the Abu Dhabi talks, that he and Witkoff will go to Russia to meet President Putin on Thursday. Progress made on Ukrainian security guarantees. Post-conflict security discussed. Territorial issues will be the most difficult. Good, but tough, first meeting. EU and NATO talks were good. Europe should be involved. Currently no trust between the sides. Peace talks are complicated, all the needed points are there to come to a deal, trying to find a way to make it come together. After meeting Putin, they will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, on the Abu Dhabi talks, said there is a foundation for further work. US talks will continue. Russian Presidential Aide Medinsky said the Abu Dhabi talks were businesslike and friendly. Conflict shows the European security system works poorly. Talks will continue. European security was a key theme. EU Relations/Security. Correct to consider what will happen to security in the European region, when the conflict resolves. New security system needs to be fair. No peace proposals or initiatives were received from the EU, so it is unclear what there is to discuss with the EU. Proposals, if there are any, will be considered. Ukraine. Agreed to a prisoner swap with Ukraine (as expected). Will be large in scale. Prison swap could take place in the next few weeks. US involvement was positive, US mediators played a constructive role. General. Understanding on some points, but not others. Specific details will not be disclosed until there is a final agreement. Trilateral talks on a settlement to the Ukraine conflict have concluded in Abu Dhabi, according to Interfax. Prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia will be one of the outcomes of the negotiations, according to Sabareen. Russia's Kremlin said that there are no plans for contacts with the EU delegation in Abu Dhabi and there have been no such meetings; there's effectively no relation between Russia and the EU. In ongoing talks, Ukraine insists Russia end fighting before discussing European security, AFP reported citing sources. MIDDLE EAST Iran's Rezaei said they will target US military bases within Europe if US craft depart from there to strike Iran. Elsewhere, discussed with Russian President Putin the importance of the North Sea corridor, and the possible transfer of Russian gas to Iran. Advisor to Iran's Ghalibaf said containing the UAE is the best way to attack the siege. G7 urges Iran to cease supplying weapons and support to the Houthis. Iran's National Gas CEO said that despite the South Pars incident the gas network is stable. Houthi armed forces say that they have just successfully intercepted a Saudi F-15 fighter jet formation, preventing it from entering the airspace. Iran's Rezaei said that any new US attack would be met with the targeting of "distant" US military bases as well, Al Mayadeen reported; will not remove any enriched nuclear material from Iran. Iran General Abdollahi warned the "US and the Zionist regime that previous blows were only the beginning of the events, and in case of any new calculation error, strikes far more deadly await them." adding, "this is a credible threat...". Iraq PM visited Iran, unofficially, after meeting US President Trump, Al Akhbar reported; sources suggest that the Iraq PM carried a US proposal "confirming that the visit did not lead to results satisying the US". NOTABLE NORTH AMERICAN NEWS US House Democrats are preparing legal challenges and investigations ahead of January, when Hakeem Jeffries is expected to become speaker, Politico reported. Planned investigations include Trump family corruption, pardons, deportations, Justice Department actions against political opponents and withheld federal funding. NORTH AMERICAN DATA US MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (Nov/06) 540.7 (Prev. 517.5). US MBA Mortgage Market Index (Nov/06) 204.6 (Prev. 192.6). US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Nov/06) 7.21% (Prev. 7.30%). US MBA Purchase Index (Nov/06) 141.2 (Prev. 131.4). US MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov/06) 6.2% (Prev. -1.2%).