Commodities

CRUDE WRAP: WTI (Z6) SETTLES USD 0.67 LOWER AT 97.15/BBL; BRENT (Z6) SETTLES USD 0.03 HIGHER AT USD 108.82/BBL

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The October 21 wrap reported mixed crude settlements, geopolitical and sanctions headlines, undamaged Saudi facilities, and weekly inventory declines in crude and gasoline alongside a distillate build.

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The crude complex was mixed in two-way trade, as participants await any notable de- or re-escalatory action. On Wednesday, there were a few market-moving headlines, and benchmarks saw pressure as Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran is ready for diplomacy but will defend itself, adding that the US has shown no willingness to reach an understanding and there is little reason to expect progress now. Following this, Al Hadath reported that Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei informed Pakistan's Army Chief Munir of Iran's explicit rejection of the American demands. Furthermore, the US issued new Iran-related sanctions but also authorised the offloading of cargo from some blocked Iranian vessels, which participants cited as the trigger for crude hitting session lows. Note, this is a short grace period rather than relief: newly sanctioned ships have 30 days to safely wind down existing operations, after which they are fully cut off. The licence only permits the offloading of non-Iranian-origin cargo and bans delivery to Iran or Russia entirely. Elsewhere in the Middle East, Fars reported that a Houthi official said all negotiations have reached a deadlock because Saudi Arabia seeks to impose its demands on the Yemeni people, which they will not accept. Still on geopolitics, but away from the Middle East, a US official said Russia accepted the US proposal for a trilateral meeting with Ukraine. On the supply side, Argus reported, citing sources, that Saudi Aramco facilities at Yanbu and Shaybah are undamaged, after the Houthis claimed they had hit the facilities with drones on Monday. In the weekly EIA data, crude and gasoline saw larger draws than forecast, consistent with last night's private data, while distillates saw a surprise build. Crude production was down 410k BPD W/W to 13.269mln BPD, with the SPR falling to 282.7mln bbls (prev. 283.0mln bbls).

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