Norges Bank raises interest rates by 25bps to 4.50% (prev. 4.25%); "Inflation has been above target for several years. By raising the policy rate, we are helping to reduce inflation. It will likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time"
Norges Bank hiked its key rate to 4.50%, signaling rates will stay elevated longer to curb inflation, projecting a return to the 2% inflation target by 2029.
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Policy: "The Committee is prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed to bring inflation down to the 2% target within a reasonable time horizon", Governor Bache says. "the inflation outlook somewhat further ahead does not appear to have changed materially". The Committee’s assessment of the outlook implies that it will likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time. The Committee is prepared to raise the policy rate further if warranted by the inflation outlook. Inflation: CPI inflation has been higher than projected, while underlying inflation measured by the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) has slowed and been lower than projected. At the same time, a stronger krone will contribute to dampening imported goods inflation. Wage growth will likely be lower this year than in 2025 and broadly as projected in June. Inflation may then become stickier and harder to bring down again. Economy: Mainland economic activity has increased largely as expected. Employment has risen further, while unemployment has shown little change in recent months. Forecasts: In the forecasts, the policy rate remains close to the current level for a period ahead before declining somewhat. The new policy rate forecast indicates that the policy rate will remain elevated somewhat longer than the June forecast. With the current policy rate path, inflation is projected to slow from next year and move down to 2% in 2029 2026: Q3'26 4.27% (prev. 4.32%), Q4'26 4.51% (prev. 4.55%) 2027: Q1'27 4.57% (prev. 4.55%), Q2'27 4.60% (prev. 4.48%), Q3'27 4.58% (prev. 4.38%)
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