[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude pressured by US-Iran diplomatic hopes; base metals subdued with mainland China away

WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are softer on the session, with the complex pressured by growing diplomatic hopes around US-Iran negotiations and Hormuz. The US and Iran reportedly discussed a phased deal to reopen the Strait and end the US blockade, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran submitted a proposal through mediators to reopen Hormuz and restart negotiations towards a final deal. However, Al-Akhbar subsequently reported that neither side is seeking a return to the June 18 MoU and both want amendments to some clauses, potentially adding delays. Focus also remains on US diesel policy after Energy Secretary Wright reportedly contacted major refiners to gauge support for voluntarily restricting diesel exports. WTI trades off worst levels and within a USD 92.38-94.75/bbl range, while Brent trades around USD 99.00/bbl within a USD 98.22-99.76/bbl range. Dutch TTF is softer alongside the broader pullback in the energy complex, with tentative progress on US-Iran diplomacy helping remove some of the geopolitical risk premium. TTF trades near the lower end of a EUR 72.40-75.30/MWh range. Precious metals are mixed but ultimately contained, with the USD strength this week and the rise global yields continuing to act as headwinds. Spot gold has recovered off worst intraday levels and trades in a 4,255-4,296/oz range. Spot silver remains softer around USD 63.72/oz within a narrow USD 63.36-64.08/oz range. Base metals are subdued amid the absence of mainland Chinese participants overnight, with 3M LME copper within a USD 14,615.68-14,701.97/t range at the time of writing.