Newsquawk European Market Wrap - 3rd November 2026

Crude tumbled following source reports by Al Araby Al Jadeed of a US-Iran draft accord. US cash equities opened mixed with a positive tilt, whilst AAPL fell 3% at the open. DXY traded within a fairly narrow 101.62 to 101.89 range ahead of the US midterms. EQUITIES European bourses have managed to claw back some of the earlier losses and are now set to end European trade mixed. The main catalyst came following an Al-Araby Al Jadeed source report, spurring downside in the energy complex. The report stated that the US approved the draft MoU that the Qatari delegation presented to Iran on Monday. The source added that the US and Iran have made concessions regarding Iran’s nuclear programme and frozen funds. Sectors lacked a clear bias. Health Care topped the sector pile, followed by Insurance and Autos. Basic Resources held as the sector laggard, with Media and Retail rounding out the underperformers. Key movers include: Bayer, Q3 metrics beat and raised its FY adj. EBITDA guidance; Lufthansa, trimmed its FY adj. EBIT guidance while lifting its fuel bill; Philips, sales matched expectations while reiterating its FY outlook and announcing a settlement with the US DoJ regarding faulty sleep apnoea devices; Ferrari, Q3 metrics beat, but missed on FY EPS guidance; Schaeffler, to close five sites in Europe resulting in job cuts of 3,460. US cash equities are mixed with a positive tilt, contrary to what futures were indicating earlier in the session, given the positive geopolitical update. Apple started cash trade lower by some 3%, after its Q1 gross margin guidance missed estimates. Looking ahead, AMD and Super Micro are to report after-hours as focus then turns to the midterm elections. FX G10s were mixed against the USD. Initial action saw the CHF benefit from a hotter-than-expected Swiss CPI report, but this gradually pared as the session progressed. The AUD was the clear underperformer early doors, but looks to end the London session alongside the JPY, with only mild losses. The Aussie was subject to hefty selling pressure after the RBA opted to hike rates by 25bps, but failed to provide further guidance. Governor Bullock confirmed that it is probably better to wait for incoming data. DXY traded within a fairly narrow 101.62 to 101.89 range. Tentative action comes ahead of the US midterm results due later today, where a Democratic sweep could prove to be USD-negative. The Dems look very likely to gain a majority in the House, so focus remains on the Senate. The index came under mild pressure on potential diplomatic progress between the US and Iran. In brief, "Washington has approved the draft memorandum of understanding that the Qatari delegation presented to Iran yesterday"; pertinently, the two made concessions related to the nuclear programme and frozen funds. DXY fell from 101.84 to 101.69 within a few minutes, alongside some hefty selling pressure in the crude complex. The validity of these source reports remains to be seen, but they do fuel the growing optimism of diplomacy. FIXED INCOME Fixed benchmarks were lower this session, paring back some of the advances made in the prior session. Downside comes despite lower energy prices, following reports that the US and Iran have made concessions related to the nuclear issue and frozen funds, via Al Araby Al Jadeed citing sources. Nonetheless, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei said that the US' response to Iran's demands was not convincing; some journalists framed the remarks as Iran rejecting the proposal. As such, a mild reversal was seen in the oil complex. USTs were off by c. 6 ticks, and traded towards the bottom end of a 106-19 to 106-29 range. US paper ultimately awaits the midterms, where there is a chance of a Democratic sweep. A Newsquawk preview and in-depth dashboard can be found on the website. Bunds were essentially flat into the London close, and held within a 122.26 to 122.80 range. Domestic newsflow was centred on ECB speak, though policymakers broadly stuck to the usual script, with Radev suggesting that the October pause does not mean that the tightening cycle is over. Gilts were pressured by c. 40 ticks, and ultimately unable to benefit from the afternoon pressure in the crude complex. UK specifics focused on the government's EU relationship, ahead of the EU-UK summit, with reports suggesting some progress has been made on various points; however, PM Burnham has clarified that he is not proposing the return of freedom of movement, a point the EU is particularly attached to. Meta (META) kicks off a five-part USD bond offering; Meta (META) is looking to raise USD 15bln in USD-denominated bonds, Bloomberg reported. Germany sold EUR 3.839bln vs exp. 5bln 2.90% 2031 Bobl; b/c 1.4x (prev. 1.1x), average yield 3.14% (prev. 3.2%), retention 23.22% (prev. 33%). UK sold GBP 3.25bln 4.625% 2037 Green Gilt: b/c 3.38x (prev. 3.31x), average yield 5.268% (prev. 4.934%) & tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.2bps). COMMODITIES WTI Dec and Brent Jan futures slumped after a choppy morning following reports via Al-Araby Al-Jadeed of a US-Iran draft accord. To recap, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reported, citing mediation sources, that Washington has approved a Qatari-brokered draft memorandum of understanding with Iran, which has also received Saudi and UAE backing. Both sides have reportedly made concessions on Iran's nuclear programme and frozen funds, with discussions now centred on a coordinated announcement of an interim agreement. Tehran is expected to announce nuclear concessions in exchange for Washington releasing part of Iran's frozen funds, paving the way for renewed negotiations, the report suggested. As a result, crude futures extended Monday’s 8% slump, with WTI Dec towards the lower end of a USD 93.59-98.82/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 95.15-102.75/bbl range) and Brent in a USD 100.80-107.24/bbl parameter (vs yesterday’s USD 103.28-112.41/bbl range). Dutch TTF has also slipped after failing to sustain this morning’s rebound, with prices falling to as low as EUR 88/MWh from around EUR 99/MWh. Precious metals have pared back the bulk of the morning weakness, whilst the USD was rather steady throughout the session ahead of the US midterms (Full Newsquawk preview and tool available). Spot gold traded in a USD 3,895-3,971/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 3,874-3,970/oz range). Spot silver has underperformed after dipping under yesterday’s USD 49.33/oz low but is back on a USD 50/oz handle. 3M LME copper is also on the back foot but off worst levels and looks to end the European session around the 14k mark in a USD 13,896.05-14,286.35/t range at the time of writing. USDA: Private exporters reported the following sales activities for 2026/2027: 315k MT of corn for delivery to Mexico, 136k MT of corn for delivery to South Korea, and 134k MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. A magnitude 5.8 earthquake has hit Chaparral, Colombia, EMSC reported. Saudi Aramco CEO said global liquid fuel demand is expected to rise by around 2.4mln bpd by 2027; expansion of East-West pipeline is underway, energy markets are to face pressure this winter. Global demand has proved to be more robust than many anticipated earlier, demand will come back stronger. China is increasing its crude oil purchases. Even with attacks on the East-West pipeline, they were able to bring back exports within days. ADNOC Gas CEO said gas demand will continue growing in the long term; emphasises the need for more energy and diversified supply. Qatar cargoes are reportedly to load from Ras Laffan, which would be the first time since end-Feb. Saudi Aramco CEO said remains ready to rapidly increase production when the situation calls for it. EUROPEAN DATA Germany's HDE Lobby Group sees 2026 German Retail Sales +2% in nominal terms, +1% in real terms. French Budget Balance (Sep) -159.2B (Prev. -159.6B). Swiss CPI (Oct YY) 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.0%); Core (Oct YY) 0.5% vs Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%). Item. Index level October 2026 Base Dec. 2025 (=100). % change compared with previous month. % change compared with October 2025. CPI: Total. 101.7. +0.2. +1.5. Core inflation *. 100.6. 0.0. +0.5. Domestic products. 100.7. -0.1. +0.8. Imported products. 105.0. +1.2. +3.7. Swiss CPI (Oct MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.0%). NOTABLE HEADLINES Swedish parliament rejects Centre Party leader’s candidacy for PM. UK's Unite Union said the Apache offshore workers are escalating their strike action on various offshore platforms with a 24-hour period of strikes. German Chancellor Merz said they need to ensure that the electricity tax is reduced in the 2027 budget, and has some ideas on how to do this; called for further reductions in air traffic tax. TRADE/TARIFFS EU is planning to change its single market to reduce its dependence on China, according to reports. China reportedly proposes dual‑use export control enforcement rules. CENTRAL BANKS ECB's Moulin said the ECB must prevent inflation from spreading beyond energy. ECB's Kocher said it is crucial to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched. Eurogroup is reportedly calling for ECB Presidency nominations by November 6th, reports suggest. ECB's Radev said the economic environment is getting more challenging; October pause does not mean the tightening cycle is over. Core inflation is stable, and the energy shock has not passed onto wages. SNB's Schlegel said inflationary pressure in September was slightly higher than in June. PBoC said it will keep moderately loose policy and ample liquidity, Xinhua reported. BCB Poll: Economists see year-end 2026 Selic rate at 13.50% (prev. 13.25%) and year-end 2027 at 12.50% (prev. 11.75%), according to the weekly BCB Focus Market Survey. GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST "Washington has approved the draft memorandum of understanding that the Qatari delegation presented to Iran yesterday", Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reported citing sources close to the mediation team. The mediation team briefed Saudi Arabia and the UAE on the memorandum of understanding that was reached and received their approval. US-Iran announcement will reportedly be made step by step and simultaneously, Al Araby Al Jadeed reported; Tehran will announce a concession regarding its nuclear program in exchange for Washington announcing the release of part of Tehran's frozen funds. The aim of the announcement was to portray Washington and Tehran as the victors in this war. The announcement of the new memorandum of understanding may be done in the same way as the announcement of the memorandum of understanding last June. Axios' Ravid on Iran's Secretary of National Security Rezaei comments, said he rejects the latest US position on the deal to resume the ceasefire and launch negotiations. A senior source tells Al Arabiya that the US has informed the Qatari mediator of its approval of the submitted proposal; the mediators are awaiting Iran's response to the proposal after receiving it yesterday. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei said US' "response to Iran's rights and demands was not convincing, and they must fully and explicitly address Iran's seven conditions and act upon them; only in this case will the Strait of Hormuz be reopened". Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Tehran has no fear of diplomacy and uses dialogue as a tool to meet the interests of Iran. Iran participates in every diplomatic process with maximum caution and complete scepticism. The realisation of any understanding is contingent upon a definitive commitment to stopping the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon. Iranian journalist Ali Gholhaki suggests the US may have proposed diluting Iran's 400kg of 60%-enriched uranium in exchange for a pause in the war and the release of some frozen Iranian assets. He adds that reopening the Strait of Hormuz could be linked to lifting the naval blockade and selective sanctions exemptions. Iran has updated its list of targets for retaliatory attacks in response to potential US strikes, RIA sources say. US Energy Secretary Wright said overnight strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island have not impacted oil flows; more refined products are coming out of the Arabian Gulf and more will come from India. US President Trump said they have total control of the Middle East. Israel has been a helper. Post-Midterms, regarding Iran, said "we will see", not looking to kill "lots of people", but will do "what has to be done". Iran is reportedly ready to respond to new US aggression that will go beyond the geographical limits of the region, reported Russian Press Ria citing an Iranian political source. Yemeni Houthi military spokesperson said the group carried out a drone strike on Abha International Airport, disrupting air traffic, and a ballistic missile strike on Khamis Mushait Air Base, claiming direct hits on both targets. Qatari mediators expect feedback from the US and Iran within 36 hours on a new proposal to advance talks, according to an official briefed on the talks cited by Reuters. Iran's Basij (branch of IRGC) deputy chief Qorayshi said they will carry out the Supreme Leader's orders and no longer face restrictions on missile targets or range, IRIB reported. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei rejected a Qatari proposal to establish direct communication between US diplomats and the Iranian delegation that visited Doha, diplomatic sources cited by Aram News report. Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said efforts to bridge the gap between the US and Iran are ongoing; said the Qatari mediation team that travelled to Tehran on Monday night has returned to Doha and talks are continuing. There is a unified agreement across the region and the Gulf to avoid escalation. Both the US and Iran are committed to the mediation process. There is still hope for a deal that would create the conditions for future negotiations. "To my understanding, an agreement to return to the negotiating table between US and Iran is in the works", journalist Mallick reported; he adds that it's currently not 'as close' as some suggest. Full post: "To my understanding, an agreement to return to the negotiating table between US and Iran is in the works, its currently not "as close" as its being projected through certain calculated leaks and glorification being done by linked media houses/websites.". Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said diplomatic talks and message exchanges continue through Qatari mediation, with Iran's 7-day plan as the basis. An agreement is possible if Tehran's demands are met, while warning that any official threat to use tactical nuclear weapons would undermine the NPT's legal framework. Houthi spokesperson said the Yemeni Armed Forces confirm that they did not carry out any operation today towards Saudi territory. Qatari mediators went to Tehran only to receive Iran's response, not for further discussions; sources say political figures inside Iran are pushing for de-escalation, Al Arabiya sources suggest. Iranians prefer direct meetings with mediators for security reasons. Iran's President, Parliament Speaker, and Foreign Minister advised military authorities to respond positively to Qatar's proposal. Iran and the US are reportedly reviewing the latest mediator proposals aimed at bridging differences and averting another war, Bloomberg reported; Qatari mediators held talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday, which were described as positive. Iran's armed forces chief of staff said lasting regional security requires ending wars in Lebanon and Gaza, lifting sanctions, paying reparations, recognising Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and guaranteeing non-aggression. Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Monday for talks with Iran, reports suggest citing a diplomat; Iran and the US are reviewing the latest suggestions from mediators. Senior Iranian officials say Iran and US are far from reaching a deal to end the war, sources report; US' excessive demands will not be accepted by Iran, the source added. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said regarding his interview with Al Jazeera that he emphasised Iran has no hostility towards the member states of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council and they appreciate the positive role of Qatar and Oman. He said they will continue their talks with Saudi Arabia. Our goal is to achieve new regional security arrangements, formed by the countries of the region themselves and without the presence of foreign militaries. Iranian Foreign Minister said Iran has no hostility towards GCC nations and talks with Saudi continue; the goal is regional security formed by the countries of the region themselves and without foreign military presence, Tasnim reported. "Washington and Tehran have made concessions regarding the Iranian nuclear program and frozen funds", Al Araby Al Jadeed reported citing sources. The discussion now revolves around the first step and how to announce reaching an interim agreement, followed by the return of both parties to negotiations. Discussions are currently underway regarding arrangements for announcing the agreement, and there is a move towards both parties announcing it simultaneously. Iranian lawmaker Moghadam said the Defence Ministry and IRGC are ready to produce missiles with a range of 6,000km initially, with plans to extend their range to 10,000km, 12,000km and 15,000km to reach US territory, SNN reported. Iranian President said the Supreme Leader has granted authority to negotiate, Al Hadath reported. Explosions have been reported in the Strait of Hormuz, Naya reported - UNCONFIRMED. IRGC Navy said three tankers caught fire and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz after striking naval mines in the early hours while travelling through unauthorised routes with navigation and identification systems switched off, IRIB reported. Iranian Foreign Ministry said, following the targeting of Qeshm, that they are now in a state of war. An unidentified projectile struck an Indian cargo ship near Oman, killing one person, Iranian state media IRIB reported. Saudi-led coalition said that it intercepted a drone in the Mecca region, Al Hadath reported. "Iranian assessments indicate that a return to war is now the most likely scenario", Al-Arabiya reported citing sources. Iranian diplomat Gharibabadi said the exchange of messages through Qatari mediation continues and that a diplomatic agreement is possible if Tehran's demands are met. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said armed forces' response to any enemy miscalculation will be unpredictable and not bound by geographical limits. Reports of explosions in Iraq's Diyala province near the Iranian border, alongside reports of warplane activity. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said they are at the highest level of defensive readiness. Adds, the ball is in the US' court, after a strong and rational response was provided to the US. RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russian Kremlin spokesperson said Russia will eventually have to discuss the future security system with Europe, but it is important to understand with whom. Melania Trump will reportedly convene Russia and Ukraine representatives at the White House; will deliver remarks on the Oleshky ceasefire on Thursday. Russia's Kremlin is reportedly seeking further easing of US sanctions following a Trump-Putin agreement on Russian diesel supplies, according to Bloomberg sources. Russia's Kremlin confirms trilateral Ukraine talks will take place in Abu Dhabi next week. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that "Russians carried out a complex, massive attack overnight, aimed primarily at our critical infrastructure. And the main target was energy – power generation facilities and substations". US, Chinese and Russian officials are reportedly in talks regarding a possible trilateral summit between President Trump, Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin later in November, at the Apec summit in Shenzhen, FT reported citing sources. It remains unclear on whether the talks would happen trilaterally, or as bilateral talks between China-US and China-Russia. Source suggests that the US is pressuring China to agree to a meeting. NORTH AMERICAN DATA US Redbook (Oct/31 YY) 10.4% (Prev. 9.3%). US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Nov) 48.5 vs. Exp. 46.2 (Prev. 46.8). US LMI Logistics Managers Index (Oct) 70.7 (Prev. 70.2).