Post-PPI sell-side commentary:
October 15 commentary reports varied September PCE forecasts and revisions; Reuters confirms a sharp September PPI increase but does not verify the specific firm forecasts.
News detail
Morgan Stanley now forecasts September core PCE inflation at 0.34% M/M (prev. 0.35% pre-PPI), headline at 0.51% M/M. In terms of revisions, PPI implies a downward revision of about -4bp to August core PCE. Pantheon expects core PCE inflation to remain between 3% and 3¼% over the next six months, rather than drift higher. Revises core PCE deflator to 0.36% (prev. 0.33%) Oxford Economics' PCE nowcast points to headline PCE at 0.47% and core at 0.29%. On a Y/Y basis, headline to be pushed up to 3.6% (prev. 3.4%) and core to 3.0% (prev. 2.9%).
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