US FX WRAP: Dollar sold on positive US/Iran updates
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The Dollar Index saw notable losses on Monday, weighed on by the more constructive geopolitical backdrop and cooling energy prices amid increased hopes of a US-Iran peace deal. The latest report, which sparked a significant risk-on reaction, came from Al Arabiya, which, citing sources, said a Qatari-Pakistani proposal has revived the path to serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The report added that arrangements are underway to discuss the return of IAEA inspectors to Iran, and that Washington has allowed uranium enrichment inside Iran at 3.67%, which Tehran has agreed to. It also said the US will release Iranian assets worth between USD 6-9bln if an agreement is reached, while the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened and the naval blockade lifted immediately. Participants now await confirmation of these reports or any further details. Away from geopolitics, there was no tier-1 data on Monday, with US CPI due on Tuesday. The NY Fed SCE showed inflation expectations unchanged across all horizons: 1yr at 3.9%, 3yr at 3.3% and 5yr at 3.0%. G10 FX gained across the board against the Greenback on the broad Dollar weakness. The Antipodeans outperformed, buoyed by risk sentiment, with the Kiwi also supported by the New Zealand general election. The centre-right bloc is narrowly ahead but may need support from the Opportunity Party, which is likely to sit outside government in exchange for policy concessions. A centre-right victory is widely viewed as pro-business and would allow the RBNZ to keep its existing mandate. Some on the left have called for the Bank to reinstate a dual mandate, focusing equally on inflation and employment, which is regarded as dovish for NZD. Elsewhere, although it did not move the Pound, BoE Governor Bailey said the Bank is seeing growing signs of the beginnings of a positive supply shock from AI and the investment it requires. Finally, USD/CNH saw choppy price action after Chinese CPI came in cooler than expected while PPI was hotter than expected.
The report linked dollar weakness to improved risk sentiment but presented proposed US-Iran terms as unconfirmed; later same-day headlines disputed reported details.
News detail
The Dollar Index saw notable losses on Monday, weighed on by the more constructive geopolitical backdrop and cooling energy prices amid increased hopes of a US-Iran peace deal. The latest report, which sparked a significant risk-on reaction, came from Al Arabiya, which, citing sources, said a Qatari-Pakistani proposal has revived the path to serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The report added that arrangements are underway to discuss the return of IAEA inspectors to Iran, and that Washington has allowed uranium enrichment inside Iran at 3.67%, which Tehran has agreed to. It also said the US will release Iranian assets worth between USD 6-9bln if an agreement is reached, while the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened and the naval blockade lifted immediately. Participants now await confirmation of these reports or any further details. Away from geopolitics, there was no tier-1 data on Monday, with US CPI due on Tuesday. The NY Fed SCE showed inflation expectations unchanged across all horizons: 1yr at 3.9%, 3yr at 3.3% and 5yr at 3.0%. G10 FX gained across the board against the Greenback on the broad Dollar weakness. The Antipodeans outperformed, buoyed by risk sentiment, with the Kiwi also supported by the New Zealand general election. The centre-right bloc is narrowly ahead but may need support from the Opportunity Party, which is likely to sit outside government in exchange for policy concessions. A centre-right victory is widely viewed as pro-business and would allow the RBNZ to keep its existing mandate. Some on the left have called for the Bank to reinstate a dual mandate, focusing equally on inflation and employment, which is regarded as dovish for NZD. Elsewhere, although it did not move the Pound, BoE Governor Bailey said the Bank is seeing growing signs of the beginnings of a positive supply shock from AI and the investment it requires. Finally, USD/CNH saw choppy price action after Chinese CPI came in cooler than expected while PPI was hotter than expected.
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