Advanced Micro Devices Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conference
Review the key takeaways and the transcript of this earnings call.
- AMD reported strong demand growth driven by AI, with a significant ramp in GPU and CPU products.
- The company updated its total addressable market (TAM) forecast to $2 trillion by 2030, reflecting the impact of AI.
- Q2 results showed data center business expected to double next year, with MI450 GPU ramp starting in Q3 and accelerating in Q4 and 2027.
- Server CPU business is supply constrained but expected to grow more than 80% year over year in the second half of this year and over 70% next year.
- AMD's embedded business showed significant double-digit year-over-year increase after inventory digestion.
- Enterprise server business grew more than 70% in Q2, with AMD aiming for 50% market share of the $220 billion server CPU TAM by 2030.
- AMD's gross margin is influenced by product mix; data center AI GPUs have below corporate average margin, but server CPUs and embedded businesses are margin accretive.
- Supply chain constraints exist across wafers, advanced packaging, HBM memory, and components, but AMD is aggressively investing in capacity to meet demand.
- AMD has strategic partnerships with Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic for multi-gigawatt scale AI deployments.
- The Helios rack-scale AI system ramp is methodical, starting production shipments in Q3 with significant volume growth expected in Q4 and into 2027.
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Transcript
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Welcome to day one of Citi's 2026 Global TMT Conference. My name is Atif Malik. I cover U.S. semiconductors and semiconductor equipment stocks. It's my pleasure to welcome Jean Hu, EVP, CFO, and Treasurer, Matt Ramsay, CVP, financial strategy, friendly neighborhood IR from AMD. I'll kick it off with my questions first. If you have a question, save it towards the end. We'll have the mic come to you, and you can ask your question. Welcome, guys. Jean, if you can take us through the lay of the land. It's been an exciting year. What has changed from January till now? You guys had your big Advancing AI Day as well. You raised your TAM forecast. Just walk us through how the demand picture has evolved from January onwards.
First, thank you for having us, and it's great to be here. Thank you everyone for joining us. It has been a really exciting year. There had so many different changes in our industry, and it's really about AI, and we do believe this is the most consequential technology transformation. When you think about the pace, the scale, and the rise of the AI, it's unprecedented. When you look at this year, not only the model capabilities continue to advancing very quickly, we also see inferencing outpace training from AI compute demand perspective, and agentic AI, that's another thing which really have another step change in demand, not only just for GPUs, but for CPUs. So during our Advancing AI Day, we did update our market opportunities from, in the past, a small number to now $2 trillion in 2030.
We do see the demand for our product, not only just GPUs, but CPUs and AI PC, and in the future, physical AI for our adaptive compute across all different areas. The most exciting thing is we just reported the Q2 results, and we talk about our data center businesses are expect to double next year. Our GPU business continue to ramp. MI450, we're going to launch this quarter at the very beginning of the ramp. Then we're going to see very significant ramp in Q4 and into next year. On the CPU side, it was a supply constraint, but we have been increasing supply, so we do expect the second half, the CPU business is going to expand more than 80% year-over-year. Into next year, continue to expand more than 70%, which continue to be supply-constrained. So it's very exciting time for AMD.
When you think about it, the company has been very aggressively investing in high-performance compute for more than a decade. As you know, we have been building methodically the compute platform from CPU, GPU, to adaptive compute across all different end market. We think the most different thing, this AI super investment cycle is at the very beginning, and over time, we're going to continue to see strong demand for AMD's product. The portfolio we have built will benefit from this AI super investment cycle.
Great. Matt, Jean talked about inference being a big driver of demand, and we have been hearing about this disaggregated compute shift in the market, the Hot Chips Conference. You guys struck a partnership with Cerebras. More recently, you have acquired Taalas. Can you talk us through what your strategy is on the inference side and how you are thinking about these different pieces of the different type of inference units?
Sure. Thank you all, and Atif, thank you, and the folks at Citi, for hosting us and for everyone to come and see us. Maybe this ties a little bit into some of the stuff that Jean talked about in your prior question about what has changed in the market in the last 12 months. It seems like a lot. We were waiting for inference to become the majority driver of AI computing, and I think that has happened. At the same time that that has happened, we have seen this radical change from what I call chatbot inference to agentic inference. That has really created big opportunities for both inferencing silicon and for the CPUs to run the agents.
We have talked about, in a number of forums, obviously, the breadth of the inference market will be the majority of it driven by GPU-led computing, and our MI455 product is going to be ramping now with Helios, and we have a roadmap to continue to innovate there. There is obviously different ASICs and XPUs in the market that are going to do some of the inferencing work. There is this new sort of market for disaggregated inference and ultra-fast response time tokens that is a relatively small piece of the market today, but I think, depending on economics, could grow into a larger piece over time. So we have taken a multi sort of pronged approach to the problem.
One is a partnership that we have announced with Cerebras, where our Helios systems will be in their cloud and compute alongside their wafer scale engine racks to expand the utility, not just of ultra-fast inference, but take it to a broader range of more general-purpose inference in their cloud for their customers. Longer term, we have not given a ton of details yet, but we do have some of our own internal silicon ambitions for ultra-low latency inference that would fit into our architecture via chiplets. The Taalas team brings a lot of really good talent. We know the folks well, some of them were former AMD, ATI folks back in the day, and are going to integrate really quickly into the team and add a lot of technology and horsepower behind the internal silicon work we are doing in that area.
Awesome. Jean, let's talk about Helios. I believe you guys already had very high expectations on Helios exiting last year. Just in terms of your shipments and where you stand on Helios, how should we think about the ramp of Helios in Q4 and then to Q1 next year? How is that ramp going? I do hear from clients around questions around execution. If you can just help us understand.
Yeah. I would say the Helios ramp, MI450 ramp is going very well. Q3 will be at the very beginning of our production shipment. We expect revenue in Q3, but Q4 we'll see a very significant step up. Then another step up in Q1 2027, and the ramp through 2027. It is a scale level, rack scale level, right? It's very different, very complex. So we have been very methodical and deliberate how we design the ramp process. Start ramp in the end of Q3 and step up in Q4, Q1 into 2027. We are working with all our partners, ODM partners, and our overall supply chain to ensure we have all the component. So it's not about the GPU, CPU, HBM memory. There are also a lot of other small component that we need to ensure we have.
With the ODM partners, it had been a long, really durable work with them to make sure the manufacturing process can execute. That's why it's a methodical process, is our team have been working with the ODM partners. We also have been working with all the customers who are going to have a production shipment to ensure not only all the component works, all the mechanical, all the software stack, everything works. So that has been ongoing. It's a weekly execution process. We actually feel pretty good about the ramp, both on the supply side. The demand and the volume for 2027 has certainly go above our original initial expectation. We need to continue to expand the supply. We feel good about the financial plan. We have talked about it, but it's absolutely the case. We can use more supplies to make sure we meet the customer's demand.
In terms of the customer profile, you guys had Meta and Microsoft as two customers last year. You're growing that demand further this year, and you added Anthropic as a customer as well. Can you just talk about that customer funnel, particularly touch on the neocloud opportunity, if that's an emerging area for you and also touch on the dollar per gigawatt across that range of customers?
Yeah. We are really pleased with our strategic long-term partnership with Anthropic we announced. When you have Anthropic, basically we have three major anchor customers, Meta and OpenAI and Anthropic. All three of them, the deployment are going to be multiple gigawatt scale deployment and multi-generational engagement with all of them. When you think about our customer pipeline, not only all three of them give us the forecast more than what we expected in the beginning of the strategic partnership. Of course, we need to make sure we have supplies to support them. More importantly, MI350, we have seen a tremendous demand from all the other third-party customers, the model builders, the new AI companies, even the enterprise customers. We do think the neocloud continue to be the area we are going to work with to make sure we meet all the other customer's need.
The pipeline is quite significant for us. We really need to prioritize. We want to make sure we support the three major anchor customers for large scale deployment, but at the same time, you should expect us to work with neocloud to make sure we support all the other customers in the market.
Atif, one thing I would add to what Jean mentioned is it is not when we think about these programs, we do not just think about it as what is going to happen with Helios and MI455X over the next 12, 15, 18 months. It is the engineering level and technical engagement that is influencing what the Instinct MI500 program will look like, the Instinct MI600 program will look like, what the design of the future racks will look like. The amount of technical engagement across the three leading model companies that we have announced as customers so far, it is really heartening to see that influence the roadmap over a multigenerational period and think that gives us confidence into not just where our roadmap is going, but what that engagement level is going to look like through the end of the decade, over multiple generations. We saw the same thing happen.
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