Advanced Energy Industries Inc Citi Global TMT Conference
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Everyone, welcome to the last day of Citi’s Global TMT Conference. My name is Elizabeth Sun, and I am in the Citi Semi and Semiconductor Research Team. Today with me is Advanced Energy. Joining me on the stage, we have Steve Kelley, President and CEO, Paul Oldham, Executive VP and CFO, and in the audience we have Edwin Mok, Senior VP of IR. Before we begin, I believe Paul has a few comments regarding Regulation FD.
Great. Thanks, Elizabeth, and thanks everyone for joining us. Just a reminder today, any statements we make are subject to a number of risks. You can find those risks articulated in our recent SEC filings. Also, we reported our Q2 earnings on August 3rd of this year. Today we will not be providing any updates to the guidance provided at that time.
All right. Steve, let's start with some questions on your semi business. After delivering a meaningful semi upside in Q2, you raised your second half guidance for semi to grow almost 50% year-over-year. I think earlier this year there was a lot of concerns around you all being very conservative on guiding the semi's growth. What changed over the course of the past six months, and what gave you the confidence to revise up the semi's growth this year?
Yeah, thanks, Elizabeth. I think what we saw in the first half was an increase in our customer confidence over the next two years, and also an increase in their forecast. We saw a number of new orders that came in that gave us a lot of confidence in the second half, as well as in 2027. One of the actions we took in response to those increased forecasts was to accelerate the opening of our new factory in Thailand. In Thailand, we are just opening a 500,000 sq ft facility, and we will be launching that facility with our largest customers, semiconductor, as well as our largest customers in data center. That is a very good sign for future demand.
Good. We'll get to the facility part of it later. But staying in the semis business, if we look beyond 2026, you just touched a bit on 2027 looks good as well. For components guys like you typically outperform in the early part of the WFE up cycle. If we look beyond 2026, looking into 2027, what will drive this kind of momentum for you basically to outperform WFE?
Yeah, so what we're being told by our customers is they have good visibility for the next two years. That's a lot of visibility. They're also telling us they're constrained by available fab basis. As their customers are able to accelerate the build-out schedule for new fabs for advanced memory, advanced logic, that's an upside for our customers, upside for us.
Normally, your customer typically build inventory at the early part of an up cycle. But I think you talk about you are largely shipping to customer demand. I was just wondering why this time is different, why the customers are not really building inventories.
Yeah. I think it's interesting phenomena. We think we're shipping to demand and not into inventory. I also look at how we manage our supply base. We learned a lot during COVID about managing our supply base. We divided the suppliers into two categories, the reliable ones and the not so reliable suppliers. If you're a not reliable supplier, we'll typically put in place more inventory to give us some insurance against execution challenges. I think the same phenomenon happens with our customers. I think Advanced Energy is perceived as a reliable supplier. We've got very strong factory infrastructure. We're successful in managing our supply chain. So they have to put in place less inventory as insurance for shortfalls from Advanced Energy. So I think we're in the good supplier category, and therefore our customers don't need to put in place a lot of inventory.
What is your lead time?
The lead times? Yeah, within semi.
Yeah, so in our semi business, we typically operate on a just-in-time model with our largest customers. There is no lead time per se, but we know what they need and when they need it, and we are able to keep up with that.
Good to hear. I want to touch base on the new products that we've talked about for the past two, three years, eVoS, eVerest, NavX. I think good feedbacks continue to be good. Can you remind us where are we on the ramp? Are you expecting them to start contributing more on the growth or share gains next year?
Yeah. We're very enthusiastic about the customer acceptance of our new technologies, namely eVoS, eVerest, and NavX. Where those technologies are used is leading edge. Today we're being designed into sub-two nanometer applications logic, for instance. We expect those products to become more meaningful from a revenue standpoint next year. We're already seeing shipments this year, but compared to the overall shipments we make, they're not that meaningful. We're very encouraged at the adoption of these technologies, leading-edge logic and leading-edge memory, because they're necessary to maintain throughput and yield at these very advanced geometries.
I'm curious within that ramp next year, how much of that is driven by continuous slot wins and how much of that is driven by new sockets?
Yeah. As you see the ramp this year, that's almost all older technologies. They're existing wins from many years ago where our customers are ramping the volume. I think as you move into 2027 and 2028, you'll see a more significant percentage of the buy coming from new products, as those new processes ramp to volume.
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