The Vita Coco Company, Inc. Common Stock Piper Sandler 5th Annual Growth Frontiers Conference
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Welcome, everybody. It's our pleasure to have Vita Coco with us today. We've got CFO Corey Baker and Chief Sales Officer Charles van Es. Would love to just jump right in. It's been fun to watch you guys. It's a 22-year-old story that's just been in the public eye the last five or so, and so it's been real fun to get to know. Maybe start just talking a little bit about the category and the category health, some of just what drives it and how you're confident in future growth.
Yeah. We're looking at that as the coconut water category is taking share of the overall beverage category. It's growing at a very healthy clip. I think it's up 28% year to date in the U.S. We're seeing very healthy growth internationally. A lot of the major retailers are growing very healthily, Walmart and some of the others. It's driven by, we see basically consumer growth, about two-thirds of it is coming from new households in the U.S., about one-third from the same households buying more. That is driven by two big intrinsic drivers. One, people want functionality from their beverages. They want it from a lot of food as well. They want healthier, natural, better-for-you beverages. So if you have a category and a brand that hits on both, we think there's a lot of potential.
From a household penetration perspective, we're still significantly below some of the major juice categories, for example. So with a consumer that's aging down, we see a lot more younger people drinking it. We see a lot of long runway for growth in the U.S. as well as internationally.
Can you touch on just some of the durability of those drivers and how you see the sustainability? You've touched on a long term 15-ish percent branded coconut water growth expectation. You're running ahead of that now. How do you think about just maybe medium and long term, and just sort of what sustains that double digit type momentum?
It all comes down to penetration opportunities. To have sustained growth, you got to have a runway for increased distribution. We believe that around 15% growth for the brand is a good place to be. It'll go in leaps and bounds a little bit. One year there's more expansion, the other year, but we're feeling very confident about that number. If I look at the U.S., we still see distribution opportunities with our major retailers. You've talked with us a lot about Walmart over the years. Walmart still has stores that have just a few Vita Coco SKUs, while we think they should have more Vita Coco SKUs and category space. That's an opportunity. If you look at places like C-store, a couple of years ago, we talked about having two or three items in a store.
We're now talking to retailers about having full shelves, and I think, as this progresses, you can see this growing into multiple shelves. That's not unimaginable. In the U.S., food service is a channel for us with very low penetration. We historically haven't been strong there. In the U.S., that's another big focus for us. Then internationally, we have markets where the per capita consumption is still, in the U.K., it's less than 50% of what it is in the U.S. In Germany, it's less than high teens versus U.S. per consumption. So there's still a lot of runway in those markets as well, which coincides with distribution growth.
You mentioned Walmart. It's gotten a lot of attention in the last couple of years, deservedly, but sometimes maybe too much attention. We've done some channel checks. We see where there's certainly stores that look like there's room for upside. How would you frame your expectations for how that might look going into next year? A few more stores, some, just qualitatively maybe an idea of what might be the next leg of that particular piece of the puzzle.
I will say as a disclaimer, we love disclaimers. Walmart, you don't know until you're in the store and you see your actual set represented. That reset happens probably end of this year. That's when they did it last year. The pitch that we're making to them certainly is, "Hey, you've got a lot of stores where you have maybe 10 items per store," but they have a lot of stores where they have just a few Vita Coco items. Our main pitch has been explaining to them that if they just level up the stores where there's just a few items and the category has a lot less space, there's a lot more growth in that juice section that they can generate. That's the pitch that we're making. We'll see by end of the year where we are.
All right. We'll keep an eye on that. You've mentioned earlier this year having a little bit tighter inventory. How have your customer service levels looked, and how should we think about capacity into 2027?
Yes, as we talked about, the category's growing high 20s in the U.S. That exceeded our expectations, especially earlier in the year, and capacity is quite tight. Service levels are pretty good, but they're impacted by the tightness of capacity, certain SKUs, certain customers, where there's less factory diversification. We're starting to see improvement. We expect in Q4 we'll fully recover and start to build inventory going into next year. A little tighter than we would like, but we'll recover soon.
If the first half had some timing things and other benefits that had really outsized growth, a very strong but little more reasonable pace gives you some breathing room setting up next year to be that much better from a CSL perspective.
Correct, and we've been building capacity all along and accelerated capacity and investments to secure more capacity going into next year. As more capacity comes online as we get into the end of the year, that allows us to build more inventory to prepare us better for next year.
And a follow-up on that, can you give a sense of how long it takes to add capacity? To what extent is there also a competitive advantage in the capacity that you have as your starting point at scale in the first place?
Broadly, it varies by factory and partner, but about 18 months to secure a new line, sign up a new partner, put in that line. If it's an existing partner, maybe you can go a little quicker. If it's a partner that has capability already, you could go even quicker, but about 18 months to build out a new line.
And just in terms of the macro environment, there's been cost pressures broadly. You've touched earlier this year on seeing some of that yourself. Your guidance points to a second half gross margin step down. Can you just flag or lay out some of the key drivers there and how to put that in the right context?
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